Back for another year, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.
Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for the Round 9 Thursday night clash between Melbourne and Carlton.
Carlton
Nic Newman 25+ disposals
Nic Newman has an increased attacking role in Carlton's backline in the absence of Adam Saad, which was particularly evident in last week's 32-disposal effort against Collingwood.
He surpassed 30 disposals in his two performances against Melbourne last year as well.
Newman should get plenty of the footy tonight.
Matt Owies 1+ goals
After a season-best three goals against Collingwood, Matt Owies brings some form into this one.
He has been a big-moment player for the Blues in recent years, even if he doesn't find much of the footy.
Jack Martin's return should also benefit everyone inside 50 for the Blues.
Nic Negrepontis
Melbourne
Bayley Fritsch 2+ goals
Melbourne forward Bayley Fritsch is in some serious form in 2024.
As the Demons’ main option inside 50, Fritsch has booted 21 goals from eight games.
He’s kicked at least two majors in each of his last six games and has only not reached that marker once in 2024.
While Carlton could send Jacob Weitering his way if they’re not phased about Melbourne’s tall forwards, Fritsch should get at least a few opportunities at goal.
He kicked 2.3 in last year’s Semi-Final and will hope to have at least a handful of chances again.
Steven May 15+ disposals
Another Dee that’s in ripping form, May has been racking up plenty of footy.
The key defender has picked up at least 18 disposals in all of his full games in 2024 and has picked up 20+ in four of them.
While he’ll likely have Charlie Curnow to deal with, May had no issues picking up 21 touches in last year’s Semi-Final and should see his numbers boosted by taking some kickouts.
You’d be shocked if he didn’t reach at least 15 touches.
Lachlan Geleit
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