Back for another year, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.
Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for the Good Friday games between North Melbourne and Carlton as well as Fremantle and Adelaide.
North Melbourne versus Carlton
Nick Larkey 2+ goals
North Melbourne are going to need to score somewhat heavily to even get near Carlton on Friday night.
Their key man up there will no doubt be Nick Larkey, and while he'll have a returning Jacob Weitering to deal with, the Roo should be good enough to finish a couple of his chances.
Don't be too confident in much else for North Melbourne in this one, but Larkey is a pretty bankable commodity having kicked at least two in 19 of his last 25 games.
Lachlan Geleit
Charlie Curnow 3+ goals
This feels like low hanging fruit, but at the end of the day, we're trying to nail certainties here.
North Melbourne are extremely undersized down back and Charlie Curnow should take full advantage.
He did in this exact match up last year, booting six goals.
Mitch McGovern 15+ disposals
Mitch McGovern is in career best form early in the 2024 season. He has been incredibly effective as an intercept defender, punishing teams with his ball use.
He will continue that hot streak on Good Friday, particularly with the return of Jacob Weitering and Caleb Marchbank.
The Blues will be settled in defence for the first time this season, which will only benefit McGovern, who has had 15 or more in his last five games.
Nic Negrepontis
Fremantle versus Adelaide
Caleb Serong 30+ disposals
Fremantle midfielder Caleb Serong has been dominant to start the 2024 season.
The young midfielder started with a bang against Brisbane, racking up a ridiculous 46 touches before backing that up with 35 against North Melbounre in Round 2.
Simply put, he'll pass the 30-touch marker if he isn't tagged by the Crows.
While they've only played two games so far this year, the Crows haven't looked to tag any of their opposition, so Serong should run around relatively free.
It could be another big game for the 23-year-old.
Lachlan Geleit
Izak Rankine and Josh Rachele to combine for 35+ disposals
While the stats would suggest Adelaide enjoyed a resounding win in the midfield in Round 2, the eye would suggest otherwise.
Jordan Dawson, Matt Crouch and Rory Laird have a sameness to their respective games and lack the speed of a top-class midfield unit.
Fortunately for Matthew Nicks, he’s got Izak Rankine and Josh Rachele waiting in the wings. Rankine and Rachele only attended 11 and eight per cent of centre bounces respectively last week and have the scope to attend more.
After having 33 disposals combined last week, watch that number rise against Fremantle on the back of more midfield minutes.
Seb Mottram
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