Can the Dogs avoid the pitfalls of an early rise?

This article appeared in the December 2016 issue of SEN Inside Football.

You could call them the premature premierships: the seasons when teams outside the normal age profile achieved the ultimate success well ahead of the accepted schedule.

The Western Bulldogs did just that in September as they confounded the footballing pundits and their mythical Mick Malthouse “premiership clock”.

A promising young team that was considered to be at the 10 minutes to midnight stage of development and likely to challenge for a flag in the future charged to the finish line and rocked the sages.

But what now for the men from Footscray? They would do well to look at the fates of two other teams that also soared ahead of their predicted time. Essendon snared the 1993 flag when it rolled Carlton, a victory expected to herald the start of an era of dominance.

Similarly Hawthorn in 2008 came from the clouds to upset the Geelong apple-cart. Hawthorn’s own plan had the date 2010 marked on its timeline as the projected summit of an advance charted six years earlier.

Chris Pelchen was one of the architects of that advance and worked closely with coach Alastair Clarkson in mapping out a natural progression.

“We identified that in 2011 or 2012 Hawthorn’s best years would kick in,” Pelchen said. “That was the side built from 2005 when Alastair arrived. We always projected it would take between six and eight years to get our ideal model in place, and history now would indicate that was correct.”

But having won the 2008 pennant, why didn’t success roll on from there?

“Trent Croad had gone down in the Grand Final in 2008 and Hawthorn didn’t have great depth in its back half,” said Pelchen. “At centre half back Trent was a critical player and ultimately we were never able to replace him.

“We didn’t have depth in certain positions and ultimately that’s why players like Shaun Burgoyne and Josh Gibson were recruited in 2009, then a couple of years on, Brian Lake and Jack Gunston were also brought to the club. David Hale was recruited for a similar reason.”

In the year after the ’08 win Pelchen said the essential reason for decline was internal.

“I was still there up until 2011 and there were a number of reasons for the drop-off and I think they have been acknowledged by Alastair.”

Firstly, while players themselves believed they were preparing for 2009 with the same competitive edge, some acknowledged they didn’t return to pre-season as fit as they should have been and that was exacerbated by injuries early in the season which the team never really overcame.

“That will be the Bulldogs’ biggest challenge in 2017—that no complacency creeps in.”

When Inside Football’s David Rhys-Jones interviewed Essendon’s Joe Misiti he had a similar take on 1993.

“After the 1993 flag I probably celebrated a bit too much and carried a few kilos which I thought I could,” Misiti said.

“Four or five kilos didn’t seem that much but it made a difference. Denis Pagan used to say I had a bluestone pitcher in my shorts, my arse was that big!”

Most of the football public foresaw a long reign for the Bombers after ’93.

“I think a lot of us thought that too! As I know now it’s very hard to play in a Grand Final let alone win one,” said Misiti.

“You’ve got to get some sort of relativity. With 18 and 19-year-olds drinking three or four nights a week we thought we would be OK and our natural talent would take over once the season started. It wasn’t the case, but you can’t go through your whole life doing nothing apart from football.”

Misiti certainly appreciated the next flag when it finally arrived seven years later.

“I always said that with the first one we were lucky,” he said. “But the second one made me appreciate the first. In 1999 we lost the preliminary final to Carlton when everyone thought we would win and in 1996 we lost by a point [in the prelim] to Sydney.”

All three “premature premiers” defied the odds. In the case of the ’93 Bombers and the 2016 Dogs the game and age profiles were markedly different from the average premiership unit, which usually includes a core of 24-year-olds with 80-odd games under their belts.

In the 1993 Essendon unit 13 players had appeared in 85 games or fewer.

This year’s Bulldogs topped that with 15 players having fewer than 85 games under their belts. Nine had fewer than 51 games to their credit and, of those, seven had fewer than 40 games.

While Hawthorn stood on the dais before their own expectations of success, the majority of the team — 16 players – had played at least 80 games. In each of the three sides had a smattering of old-timers. Tim Watson was four years older than the next most seasoned Bomber Paul Salmon, and Shane Crawford was six years senior to the next most experienced Hawk Trent Croad.

And while the Bulldogs were heavily invested in youth at one end of the spectrum they were the only team to have three 30-year-olds in the form of Matthew Boyd, Dale Morris and Liam Picken.

While neither Essendon nor Hawthorn backed up with immediate ongoing success, Hawthorn eventually created a superb era after a four-year gap between Grand Finals. And Essendon had to wait seven years before its barnstorming 2000 triumph.

Chris Pelchen believes the Western Bulldogs have an edge in comparison.

“The advantage that the Bulldogs have over Essendon in ‘93 and Hawthorn of 2008 is that to identify their best 22 is still somewhat subjective and quite difficult,” he said.

“Many would argue that the team that won the premiership this year actually wasn’t their best 22. I admit it is rare to have the best 22 players on Grand Final day because of injuries, you normally have one or two exceptions, but you have 22 of your best 24 or 26 players.”

The Bulldogs overcame significant injuries in the last eight weeks and it could be debated that they didn’t actually have their best 17 or 18 players on Grand Final day.

“Look at players like Robert Murphy, Mitch Wallis, Tom Campbell, Lin Jong, Matt Suckling, Marcus Adams who got the team into the top eight in the first half of the season,” said Pelchen.

“I would say there were 30 players who could have been in the first 22.”

Pelchen said the Bulldogs weren’t loaded with superstars either. “While they may not have reached the heights of previous premiership sides in statistical terms of elite players, the fact is they bat very deep and have such an even group.

“That should work in their favour for the next three or four years.”

He admires the work of the Bulldog recruiters.

“I always say it’s like building a chain. One link doesn’t win you a premiership. It’s a matter of building links together to give you a chain of talent.

“You won’t win it based on one good draft.”

WESTERN BULLDOGS 2016 PREMIERS

THE BABY BOMBERS OF ’93

> Year after: Essendon was sitting seventh at the midway mark of 1994. Just five wins in the last 12 games saw the Bombers slide to 10th by the end of the season.

> The troops: Essendon was hit hard by injuries in 1994, particularly in the second half of the season. Michael Long missed the entire year due to a knee reco. Mark Harvey did his knee in Round 9 and missed the rest of the season. Dustin Fletcher was out for six weeks with an ankle and Ricky Olarenshaw’s ankle and groin woes kept him out for seven games. Tim Watson missed the last nine games with an ankle injury.

> Dried up: The Bombers had coaxed Watson out of retirement and he added the 1993 premiership medal to his imposing record, but he played only nine more games before an ankle injury sidelined him and he retired. Paul Hills was just 21 years old in ‘93, but a mixed bag of injuries meant he added only 12 games to his tally in the next three seasons.

> Future champs: Mark Mercuri, Joe Misiti, James Hird and Dustin Fletcher were among the babies of the 1993 group, but became legendary players at the club and would be key figures in the 2000 premiership campaign.

ESSENDON 1993 PREMIERS

HALF-FORMED HAWKS OF ’08

> Year after: Halfway through the 2009 season Hawthorn sat in seventh with six wins. They fell away in the closing half of the campaign and won only three times in 11 outings. That saw them finish in ninth place, one and a half wins out of the finals.

> The troops: Rover Shane Crawford retired after the 2008 flag and the next most experienced player Trent Croad never played again, finally conceding to a long-term foot injury. Croad was still only 28 years old. The injury toll affected Hawthorn late in 2009 as Mark Williams injured a knee in Round 13 and missed the last part of the year.

> Dried up: Like Croad, ruckman Robert Campbell had his career cut short. He played 14 games in 2009, but a chronic knee issue led to his retirement at the end of the year. Stephen Gilham had just 10 games in ’09 because of a knee injury. Williams was surprisingly traded to Essendon 12 months after collecting his winner’s medal at the age of 25 and the ill-starred Xavier Ellis had to endure years of injury disruptions before crossing to West Coast.

> Future champs: Stars like Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead were already established as elite footballers and would be at the core of future Hawk glories.

HAWTHORN 2008 PREMIERS