Who wins the flag first?

Former Melbourne star David Schwarz says there are too many factors to predict with any certainty which sides are closer to a flag.

Debate has raged about which side out of St Kilda, Melbourne, Richmond and Collingwood is closer to a flag, with SEN Breakfast host Tim Watson believing the Saints are closer to a flag than Collingwood, despite predicting the Magpies will overcome a slow start and make finals this year.

“That’s just too tough to call,” Schwarz told SEN’s The Run Home.

“I mean who would have thought two years go that the Bulldogs would win the 2016 premiership.

“They were in cactus street after Ryan Griffen left and look what happened.”

Schwarz believes none of the four can win this year’s flag and says the fact all are already rumoured to be active during the end-of-season trade period further clouded the issue.

St Kilda has been linked with Fremantle skipper Nat Fyfe while the future of Tiger star Dustin Martin remains uncertain. Collingwood and Melbourne are said to be hunting Adelaide defender Jake Lever while the Demons are also monitoring the movements of Gold Coast co-captain Steven May and soon-to-be out of contract Swan Sam Reid.

The Demons have not played finals since 2006 while the Saints last tasted finals in 2011. Collingwood’s September hiatus extends back to 2013.