Ox: These two clubs at huge risk of going south in 2018

David Schwarz says he is worried that 2018 could see two up and coming teams go backwards instead of forwards.

The former Melbourne forward says that St Kilda and the Demons are at most risk of tumbling down the ladder in 2018 if the clubs’ injury prone stars continue to spend significant time on the sidelines.

With the Saints’ young spearhead Paddy McCartin to miss a month of pre-season due to a foot sprain, Schwarz says the warning signs are already present at 2017 11th place finishers.

“They need Paddy McCartin to be delivering, they need that forward line to be right,” he told SEN’s The Run Home.

“It’s a young list and they’ve got some new recruits coming in with some really early picks, but if they cop a few injuries to their talls (they’re in trouble.)”

As for Schwarz’s former side, persistent injury issues to a host of youngsters leaves him concerned that the Dees could finish lower than their ninth placed finish this year.

“If Melbourne lose (Jesse) Hogan and (Sam) Weideman and (Jake) Lever to injuries, they’ll fall away,” he said.

“I’m worried about my mob. We’ve got injury prone players as well. Jesse Hogan, who has had issues, you can’t predict cancer but there’s just a lot of things. Christian Salem had a thyroid condition (that could) flare up again.”

However Schwarz says that injuries can impact every side in the competition in a similar manner, looking towards the relatively injury-free seasons Grand Finalists Richmond and Adelaide as an example of what a side can do if luck goes their way.

“If you can keep your list together and really healthy, your chances of staying and improving are much greater,” he said.

“Richmond this year had a pretty good run, Adelaide had a really good run. If you can keep your better players on the park, absolutely you’re a chance.

“Have a look at Hawthorn. Hawthorn dropped dramatically and started so poorly because they barely had a player on the park. They lost a lot of experience, whether it was (James) Frawley or Cyril (Rioli) and (Jarryd) Roughead took a little time to get back. They had their issues.

“If you can’t stay fit and healthy, they’ve got no chance. That’s why investing into sports science and the best medical teams to get the players back as quick as they can and get their bodies right to get them through 22 games plus finals is paramount.

“You’ve got to be right, you’ve got to be healthy and you need a lot of luck.”

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