I think luck plays a bigger part in AFL football than it used to. Certainly in helping determine each year’s premier.
That’s the consequence of a couple of factors. With 18 teams, the talent is stretched a little thinner than it used to be. Plus, we have a competition as close as we’ve ever had.
Things have to go right at the right time to win a flag.
They did on the timing front for the Western Bulldogs a couple of years ago when the pre-finals bye enabled them to regain Jack Macrae, Tom Liberatore, Easton Wood and Jordan Roughead in time for an Elimination Final in Perth.
Last year, for Richmond, it was about durability. The Tigers’ four best players – Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Alex Rance and Jack Riewoldt – played 98 of a possible 100 games between them.
Does having luck make a premiership side any less worthy than its predecessors? I don’t consider the Tigers of 2017 any less a premiership team than Essendon of 2000, which lost only one game in 25.
But it seems fans of flag teams these days spent an awful lot of time after the triumph still justifying their side’s credentials, like they feel they still have something to prove.
I don’t think the best teams now are as good as the best teams of a decade ago. Geelong in 2008 couldn’t beat Hawthorn on Grand Final day, but I reckon that bunch of Cats would have been too good for any of the Hawks’ three-peat sides of 2013-15.
Does it matter? A flag’s a flag, whenever it was won. And these days, you need luck on your side as well as talent. It’s just a price we pay for football equalisation.