As is customary at this stage of an AFL season, the calculations are complicated.
Questions are asked, speculation surrounds various scenarios, upsets are inevitable and routine victories are undoubted.
Who can make the eight? Who sits inside but can drop out? Who gets the double chance? Who can defy history?
We may not have the answers but we can help paint a picture with The Run Home of each of the 12 sides still in the mix. (Sorry Freo fans).
Richmond (1st)
Round 19 v Collingwood (MCG)
Shapes as a real blockbuster. Richmond withheld a genuine challenge from the Magpies in Round 6 before skipping away and with some key Pies unavailable due to injury, the Tigers could take full advantage again.
Round 20 v Geelong (MCG)
Another massive clash at the MCG. The Tigers did the job after an arm wrestle in Round 13 and could go a long way to securing a top-two finish if they can again exploit the Cats' lack of depth. But Chris Scott would have learned a valuable lesson from that defeat so this will be another ’50-50’ clash.
Round 21 v Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
Pencil this one in. The Suns simply don’t have the quality to beat the Tigers, although Stuart Dew will see this as the test of all tests, so expect them to have a crack.
Round 22 v Essendon (MCG)
Essendon could still be in the finals mix at this stage so this Friday night encounter may have a fair bit riding on it. The Tigers destroyed the Bombers in the Dreamtime game in Round 11 so there will certainly be revenge on the agenda for the black and red.
Round 23 v Western Bulldogs (MCG)
If all goes to plan, Richmond will be tuning up for September action having already secured top spot when they meet the Doggies in the final home and away match.
West Coast (2nd)
Round 19 v North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
A tricky affair awaits in Tassie. North don’t often lose at Blundstone and have their own finals agenda meaning this fixture is crucial for both clubs involved.
Round 20 v Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
The Western Derby has been kind to the Eagles who have won the last six. On form, you’d be fairly confident Adam Simpson’s side will outdo Ross Lyon’s Dockers to notch yet another win on home soil.
Round 21 v Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
As West Coast strive to secure a top-two finish, Port Adelaide will be determined to do the same seeing as they only sit a win behind the Eagles. Cue a potential classic akin to last year’s Elimination Final.
Round 22 v Melbourne (Optus Stadium)
A similar story to the Round 21 scenario. The Demons could still have the top four in their sights at this point, again creating another ripper of a contest. Melbourne won a thriller at Subiaco last year but Optus Stadium will present a much tougher challenge as the Eagles have the venue dialled in.
Round 23 v Brisbane (Gabba)
The Lions will be playing for pride so will make life difficult but you get the feeling the Eagles will be playing for a home final so will get the job done and give themselves every chance on continuing the journey to atone for 2015.
Collingwood (3rd)
Round 19 v Richmond (MCG)
Collingwood can shake up the ladder if they can break Richmond's 400 days without defeat at the MCG. They comfortably handled North Melbourne and could have their eyes on a top two finish with a win.
Round 20 v Sydney (SCG)
The Swans at the SCG is not as daunting as it once was seeing as they have lost five times at the venue in 2018, including this week to Gold Coast. The Pies won there in a tight one last year but will need to sort out their defence in the next two games so Buddy doesn’t take full advantage.
Round 21 v Brisbane (Etihad Stadium)
Brisbane will do some damage as finals approach and this certainly is a danger game for the Maggies. The shootout in Round 7 was a delight to the eye but there will be more on the line this time around so perhaps Collingwood will take a more measured approach to make it five in a row against the Lions.
Round 22 v Port Adelaide (MCG)
Another big danger game against an opponent vying for top four honours. The Power have got the better of the Pies the last four times so this looms as a potentially season-defining fixture for the Carringbush.
Round 23 v Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
You would expect a victory here as Freo will definitely have the cue in the rack and the Magpies will have a finals position to think about. It is a tough run home for the Pies but this in particular should end positively.
Sydney (4th)
Round 19 v Essendon (Etihad Stadium)
Another trip back to Etihad where the Swans are 3-1 this season should have them confident of picking up a positive result. Sydney have won their past five against the Bombers but all of those have been at home and the last time they took on the Dons at Etihad (in 2014) they were easily beaten.
Round 20 v Collingwood (SCG)
Huge fixture. Sydney’s home ground advantage is all-but gone and the Magpies will be looking to continue that trend. A true finals shaper this one.
Round 21 v Melbourne (MCG)
The Demons should still be firmly entrenched in the eight at this stage and the Swans will be well aware they haven’t been beaten by this club since 2010. If their top-four hopes are on the line, expect a stirring victory.
Round 22 v GWS Giants (Spotless Stadium)
The Giants are threatening and after returning to the eight have re-established themselves as a genuine threat. Has there been a more significant Sydney Derby than this? (Perhaps apart from the 2016 Qualifying Final). This could potentially be a play-off for a top four spot.
Round 23 v Hawthorn (SCG)
The Swans and Hawks contests ALWAYS deliver. Sydney have lost their last two at the SCG to the brown and gold meaning trouble is afoot in their final regular season outing before September action begins. The loser of this match could see themselves out of the eight.
Port Adelaide (5th)
Round 19 v Western Bulldogs (Mars Stadium)
Port Adelaide in Ballarat: 1-0. That reads well for another trip to country Victoria where they will be taking on a team playing purely for pride. This is now a must-win after their loss at home to GWS.
Round 20 v Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
If the Crows are still a finals chance here, this could be one of the bigger Showdowns we’ve ever seen. The Power are currently three wins ahead of their crosstown rivals but that could be a different story come August 4 given the nature of this ever-evolving season. This could shape Port’s top four hopes and Adelaide are done if they don't win this one.
Round 21 v West Coast (Adelaide Oval)
Another enormous test for the Power – their third in four weeks against a fellow finals contender. Port will have memories of the Elimination Final loss last year which was their fourth consecutive defeat to the Eagles at the Adelaide Oval which spells danger.
Round 22 v Collingwood (MCG)
Yet again, a massive clash against a side in the eight. It gets no easier for the Power and by Round 22, this contest could have dramatic ramifications for the loser. And on the flipside, it could help set up the winner’s season. Will the loser drop out of the top four?
Round 23 v Essendon (Adelaide Oval)
A home game to finish off and with any luck for Power fans, Essendon will have nothing to play for. Really should get the job done here but the Dons have been rock solid interstate in 2018.
GWS Giants (6th)
Round 19 v St Kilda (Spotless Stadium)
Mark a win down here. The Giants will be another four points closer to potentially a shock top four finish. Their win over Port opens the ladder right up.
Round 20 v Carlton (Etihad Stadium)
Four more points here. The Blues can’t be going any worse but even with an improved showing, it will be job done for GWS, who may be making some contenders nervous at this point. They don't need percentage because of their draw, however.
Round 21 v Adelaide (UNSW Canberra Oval)
The Giants rarely lose in Canberra making this another very winnable fixture. It all depends on what the Crows do in the three weeks prior but you would expect a victory that will have the orange tsunami back threatening again.
Round 22 v Sydney (Spotless Stadium)
If there is any team who can halt a run, it’s the Swans. This will be a match-up for the ages if both sides are up and running in mid-August. Possibility of being a finals precursor. Sydney's loss to Gold Coast could have them in a really awkward spot come Round 22.
Round 23 v Melbourne (MCG)
So much water to go under the bridge before this one but it does loom as a largely compelling contest. The Giants could really force their way into top four calculations with a resounding win. If they drop a few of the above games, this could be a battle for survival.
Melbourne (7th)
Round 19 v Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
The Crows always seem to put up a good fight at home no matter who they are playing, making this another extremely tough test for the Demons. A loss here and the wheels could start to wobble. Two last-second losses to the Cats have them on the precipice of missing finals ... again.
Round 20 v Gold Coast (MCG)
At the ‘G or at Metricon, it doesn’t matter where this match is played as the Dees, you would imagine, will come away with a comfortable win.
Round 21 v Sydney (MCG)
No doubt this will be a tough encounter for the Demons and the result could well depend on Sydney’s long list of injured players. Providing the Swans have key men back in time for this crunch meeting, it could be dangerous for the Dees.
Round 22 v West Coast (Optus Stadium)
The Eagles will be hard to overcome at Optus Stadium. Melbourne, however, could be playing for their season and we recall their massive win in Perth last year.
Round 23 v GWS Giants (MCG)
This should prove to be full of fireworks. At home for the Dees, and with either a spot in the four or eight up for grabs, they will be intent on asserting their authority on a team they share a 5-5 record with.
Hawthorn (8th)
Round 19 v Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
The Dockers have been disappointing this season but have played their best footy at home with wins over Essendon, the Bulldogs, St Kilda, Adelaide and Port Adelaide. The Hawks are the better side, but if they’re a little off, they won’t be coming away with four points. This is a must-win for Hawthorn.
Round 20 v Essendon (MCG)
A real 50-50 clash with both teams still fighting for finals. Impossible to predict as both sides have proven to be inconsistent but the Hawks' best at the 'G is usually hard to stop. Hawthorn may have to pick up these two wins to make finals given the evenness of the ladder.
Round 21 v Geelong (MCG)
A historically great rivalry over the past decade, but in this scenario the Cats look to have the edge. The Hawks usually get up for big games such as this and anything less than their absolute best will see them come away empty handed against Dangerfield, Selwood, Ablett and co. This could be the game that decides who makes it.
Round 22 v St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)
The Saints will be playing for pride and have been playing some of their best footy towards the end of the season. Hawthorn smashed them the last time these two teams met but this one is setting up to be much closer. The Saints could steal this but the Hawks should be able to get the job done.
Round 23 v Sydney (SCG)
The Swans stole a win last time these teams met at the MCG and another close game could be on the cards. The Swans have uncharacteristically dropped a few games at home this season, but with finals on the line, their best should see off the Hawks.
Geelong (9th)
Round 19 v Brisbane (GMHBA Stadium)
While the Lions are improving steadily, surely they cannot win down at Sleepy Hollow. Cats likely to get well and truly back on track with a second win on the trot.
Round 20 v Richmond (MCG)
A massive test against a team who will be desperately attempting to finish in the top two. Geelong’s best is good enough but is dependent on their fringe players stepping up. Will this be the occasion when the depth delivers? Getting blown away by the Tigers here could dent their confidence big time.
Round 21 v Hawthorn (MCG)
Has the hallmark of a modern day classic given that both sides are currently 10-7. A finals spot could be up for grabs when these two clash at the home of football. This one will be highly anticipated.
Round 22 v Fremantle (GMHBA Stadium)
The Dockers went close here last year but at this stage of the season, you simply cannot see Fremantle causing too much of a ruckus. The Cats will know much more about what they’ll need to do in order to finish as high as possible by this stage. Tick it off, Cats fans.
Round 23 v Gold Coast (GMHBA Stadium)
Another one at the Cattery that should be academic. This will simply be a tune-up for September, provided all goes well prior.
North Melbourne (10th)
Round 19 v West Coast (Blundstone Arena)
Considering their strong record in Tasmania, the Kangaroos will fancy their chances of toppling the in-form Eagles.
Round 20 v Brisbane (Gabba)
Brisbane’s recent resurgence means this shapes as a potential banana skin for the Roos. Will need to be at their best to claim the four points.
Round 21 v Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)
With the Bulldogs’ season effectively over, North will back themselves to record another vital win with the finishing line in sight.
Round 22 v Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
With Adelaide potentially still in the mix for a finals position, this looms as a season defining game for Brad Scott’s side. A win could seal a spot in September.
Round 23 v St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)
Will need to ensure they beat the Saints to lock away a spot in the eight. A loss would be catastrophic.
Essendon (11th)
Round 19 v Sydney (Etihad Stadium)
Make or break for the Dons against a battered Swans line-up. At home they are every chance but the Swans are a tough proposition at Etihad. Essendon can’t afford to bring anything but their best in a game that will shape both teams' finals aspirations.
Round 20 v Hawthorn (MCG)
Unclear where both of these fierce rivals will sit in the finals race when this game rolls around but it is more than likely that at least one of them, if not both, will still be fighting. Should be a fiery contest between old rivals in what is a toss-up game and a must win for either team.
Round 21 v St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)
The Saints have had a disappointing season in 2018 but have performed better of late. The Dons' best footy should be good enough to beat the Saints, but they are certainly on upset alert. A potential banana skin.
Round 22 v Richmond (MCG)
Richmond have been impossible to beat at the MCG over the past two seasons. Essendon may still be in the finals hunt but even at their best, it’s hard to see anything but a Richmond win under the Friday night lights.
Round 23 v Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Port Adelaide while proving inconsistent have always been extremely tough to beat in Adelaide. The Dons got the chocolates over Port in Round 4, but since, both teams have been on different paths and even if their finals chances are still alive, Port look too much to handle.
Adelaide (12th)
Round 19 v Melbourne (Adelaide Oval)
The start of a testing four-week period. The Crows will be keen to atone for the thrashing they received by Melbourne earlier in the year. It’s a match that could go either way, but being at home could be pivotal.
Round 20 v Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
A mouth-watering Showdown awaits with both clubs firmly in the mix for a finals berth. The clash earlier in the year will be hard to top, but this could be a season-defining match for the Crows.
Round 21 v GWS Giants (UNSW Canberra Oval)
GWS are a tough nut to crack in Canberra and have an impressive record in the nation’s capital. With the Giants hitting their straps, this loom as a tough assignment for Don Pyke’s side.
Round 22 v North Melbourne (Adelaide Oval)
With North Melbourne in that log jam of clubs vying for a spot in the eight, this shapes as another crunch encounter. Will be a must-win if they fail to beat the Giants.
Round 23 v Carlton (Etihad Stadium)
Should comfortably sweep aside the Blues, but could it be too little too late?