Carlton and Brisbane are two teams who have seemingly been intertwined for a couple of years now in terms of their respective rebuilds.
Both sides brought in new coaches and new systems in similar timeframes and both built through the draft. However, the Lions have rocketed up the ladder, while the Blues continues to struggle.
This had led many to point to Brisbane and ask why Carlton isn’t performing at a similar level. Did the Lions just do it better and go past Brendon Bolton and Stephen Silvagni’s side?
This might ultimately prove the case, but suggesting that now is folly because the Lions are a full year ahead of the Blues.
If you break down Brisbane’s 26-man squad for Round 4, they have spent an average of 6.84 years in an AFL system.
Meanwhile, Carlton’s 26-man squad for Round 4 sits at 5.76 years in the system. It’s almost exactly a full year behind the Lions.
The kicker is, of those squads, Brisbane has nine players who have had five years in an AFL system or less, whereas Carlton currently has an enormous 17.
Those two numbers alone show just how different both teams are in terms of where they’re at. Carlton is a full year behind and is playing almost double the amount of youngsters.
Both teams are reasonably similar when it comes to the experience of key position players.
Brisbane’s core of Daniel McStay, Eric Hipwood, Oscar McInerney, Darcy Gardiner, Harris Andrews and Josh Walker have an average time in the system of 5.33 years.
Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Mitch McGovern, Liam Jones, Jacob Weitering and Caleb Marchbank sit at 5.5 years. Liam Jones’ 11 years are a bit of an outlier in the data, with the rest all either fourth or fifth year players.
It’s the midfield where we see the most difference. Of Brisbane’s side this week, their 10 midfielders have spent 6.4 years in an AFL environment.
Carlton on the other hand chose to build their midfield after establishing their key position players, meaning their core is essentially first to fourth year players, which the data reflects.
Their midfield sits at a stunningly low 4.36 years in the system – and that includes 14-year veteran Marc Murphy and Ed Curnow, who has been around for nine. Neither are really playing on-ball for the Blues in 2019, but obviously still must be counted.
Those numbers are made up of 11 midfielders compiled from their 26-man squad given their final team hasn’t been named yet.
While it’s easy to lump these teams together on a first glance, it can’t be clearer that Carlton is 12 months behind the Lions.
Brisbane in 2018 won five games and finished with a percentage of 89.1. Consider that the accurate measurement of where Carlton should be this year.
A pass mark for the Blues in 2019 is not measured in wins and losses, but simply remaining competitive in every game and pinching a few when everything clicks.
This is likely the final year where Carlton can get away with that, though.