Victoria
South Australia
Western Australia
With all Victorian clubs now in interstate hubs, we begin a month of matches outside the AFL’s heartland.
But we praise New South Wales and Queensland for keeping the game going this weekend and beyond and of course Western Australia for making itself available from Round 7 onwards.
The SCG, GIANTS Stadium, Metricon Stadium and the Gabba will be the venues to house all nine Round 6 matches as we look ahead to a truly intriguing weekend of footy.
Geelong v Brisbane
Thursday, 7:40pm, SCG
Geelong versus Brisbane is a fascinating game, with two of the strongest teams in the competition meeting on Thursday night at a neutral venue in the SCG. The Cats have won four of their last five against the Lions, but it’s hard to use recent history to judge Brisbane given their sharp rise in the last year.
The Lions come into this game in the best form of any team in the competition, with their attacking brand of footy coupled with a run of games at home putting them in a strong position. Geelong, meanwhile, have played a more defensive style and been less convincing in wins over Gold Coast and Melbourne.
Brisbane get a boost with the return of Dayne Zorko, while it remains unclear whether Gary Ablett will be rested for Geelong. In a game like this one, a swing like that could be enough to tip the scales firmly towards the Lions.
Patrick Dangerfield looms as the key for the Cats, averaging 32 disposals, five marks and nearly two goals per game against Brisbane in their last four encounters. Tom Hawkins has also kicked 13 goals in his last four games against them, though Harris Andrews comes into this one in fantastic form.
Expect a tight contest as both teams’ contrasting styles battle for dominance. On the smaller SCG, it might be harder for the Cats to slow Brisbane down.
Tip: Brisbane by 9 points.
Nic Negrepontis
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Friday, 7:50pm, GIANTS Stadium
Both sides come into this Friday night encounter on the back of defeats making it difficult to assess form-wise.
Collingwood started on fire against Essendon, taking an early three-goal lead, before they were completely outplayed to eventually go down by 15 points. They’ll be intent on getting back on the winners’ list having lost to the Giants by two points the weekend prior.
On the Hawthorn side of the coin, they were well beaten by GWS last Sunday in a game that saw their opposition reign supreme from an inside 50 efficiency point of view. The Hawks defence was battered by the Giants who managed to kick 13.5 from just 26 entries as opposed to Hawthorn’s 7.7 from 38 inside 50s.
The Magpies had a similar issue against the Dons, registering a final score of 7.6 from their 41 entries. So this won won’t be decided by who has the ball in attack more often, it will come to down to who is most efficient with it.
On paper, the Magpies have a slightly more dangerous forward line but they lose Jordan De Goey which is a hammer-blow. The Hawks will get Jon Patton back after a foot infection kept him out of the last two games. Will he stretch Collingwood’s Jeremy Howe-less defence?
It may also come down to the midfield battle, so if Pies ruckman Brodie Grundy can direct more of his hit outs to those below him in black and white, as opposed to brown and gold, his side will be well on their way to winning. It then comes back to the attacking efficiency.
There are so many variables with both teams heading into their interstate hubs this week doubled with it being the first time they’ve played against each other at this neutral venue - a ground that both sides have not had much success at in the last few years.
Nathan Buckley has a 1-11 record in 12 games against Alastair Clarkson but 2020 is a strange year and perhaps Bucks may add a second win over Clarko to his resume.
It’s a hard match-up to be confident about, but you’ve got to tip one and the Pies ever so slightly get the nod. Not to downplay the Hawks, however, as they’ve already emphatically bounced back from a disappointing defeat this season. Toss of the coin.
Tip: Magpies by 8 points.
Andrew Slevison
Fremantle v St Kilda
Saturday, 12:45pm, Metricon Stadium
St Kilda has the chance to consolidate their spot in the top eight when they face Fremantle at Metricon Stadium on the Gold Coast.
Consecutive wins over Richmond and Carlton catapulted the Saints into the top four with the victory over the Blues initiated by a sparkling first-half display in the club’s first prime time match of the season.
A hamstring injury to Dan Hannebery was the only downer with the three-time All-Australian expected to miss three weeks. In-form recruit Zak Jones is likely to return after missing Round 5 with hamstring tightness.
With the game played at a neutral venue, the Dockers could be a tricky opponent for Brett Ratten’s side.
Fremantle recorded a gutsy first win of 2020 over Adelaide giving Justin Longmuir his first victory as senior coach.
Captain and dual Brownlow Medallist Nat Fyfe is tipped to make a swift return from a hamstring injury, but forward Jesse Hogan will miss up to three weeks with a calf strain.
Both clubs have enjoyed recent success in this fixture with last year’s meetings split at one apiece by an average margin of four points.
Tip: St Kilda by 15 points.
Alex Zaia
West Coast v Adelaide
Saturday, 3:05pm, Gabba
The Eagles finally cracked it for a win last weekend after three straight defeats. It was a much-needed triumph after a largely subpar time spent in their Queensland hub.
Adam Simpson’s side looked much more themselves against the Swans, getting on top in the midfield before making their opposition pay by kicking a winning score while holding things relatively tight down the other end to come away with a comfortable 34-point victory.
From Adelaide’s point of view, Matthew Nicks saw some improvement in his side but they were ultimately let down by inaccurate kicking in front of goal in their eventual 20-point loss to Fremantle.
Once again we have a neutral venue (which we’ll have to quickly get used to) but that is unlikely to matter in this particular match-up. West Coast appear to have picked themselves up out of their funk and with the Crows struggling all around the park, you’d imagine it would be tough for them to turn it around from what they’ve been regularly producing in 2020.
Adelaide have some further issues up forward with Taylor Walker out due to a knee injury but on the bright side, Nicks will get to look at a new setup with new faces. The Eagles have been dealt a blow with skipper Luke Shuey sidelined by a hamstring injury but should be able to overcome that loss.
West Coast has beaten a much better Crows side than this on four of the last five occasions and that recent dominance is unlikely to change on Saturday afternoon.
Tip: Eagles by 25 points.
Andrew Slevison
Melbourne v Gold Coast
Saturday, 6:05pm, GIANTS Stadium
Who do you trust more? A Melbourne team that finished 17th on the ladder last year and their only win in 2020 being a game Carlton dominated for two-and-a-half quarters? Or Gold Coast, who finished 18th last year and have impressed this year, but just lost their best midfielder?
Given the game is taking place at GIANTS Stadium, we can’t even use venue to determine who we should tip. This looms as a genuine head scratcher so let’s go through the categories we can use.
On current form, you’d have to tip the Suns. They were ultra-competitive against Geelong and knocked off Fremantle and Adelaide in convincing fashion. Nothing Melbourne has done could be described as convincing.
The Suns have been significantly better offensively, averaging 63 points per game compared to the Demons’ 50. Melbourne’s forward line has struggled greatly this year, thanks in part to their poor ball use going forward. They remain one of the worst clubs at converting inside 50s into scores.
The Dees have the clear advantage in recent form, having won their last seven games against Gold Coast, but these teams have shifted so drastically that it’s hard to know how much that needs to be taken into account.
Defensively, Melbourne has been tough to score against and it’s fair to say they’ll need to slow Gold Coast down and turn this one into a low scoring scrap if they want to win. They’ll have the advantage with bigger bodies in the midfield and have a backline that can quell the Suns.
Who’s going to win? Flip a coin.
Tip: Melbourne by 1 point.
Nic Negrepontis
Essendon v North Melbourne
Saturday, 7:40pm, Metricon Stadium
Essendon and North Melbourne are experiencing very different seasons so far and clash in the most extraordinary circumstances – not at the MCG or Marvel Stadium but at Metricon Stadium on the Gold Coast.
The Bombers put in one of their best performances in recent memory last Friday night, staving off Collingwood’s early challenge with a combination of smart ball movement and pressure around the contest.
Contrasting Essendon’s season – which has seen them lose just one match – is North Melbourne who have now lost three games in a row, their most recent 49-point loss to the Western Bulldogs a sobering reminder of where they currently sit after five rounds (which is 13th and falling).
These two have played in plenty of classics of late, with their most recent meeting in Round 17 last year being particularly memorable for its tight finish which saw Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti kicking the winning goal with only seconds left.
As we enter the second phase of the season, the teams who can adapt to the rapidly shifting face of 2020 will be the most successful. Saturday night’s clash is an early test for an Essendon side currently in the top eight and a North Melbourne side who badly need a win.
Tip: Essendon by 11 points.
Laurence Rosen
Port Adelaide v GWS Giants
Sunday, 1:05pm, Metricon Stadium
Port Adelaide’s recent record against GWS makes for grim reading.
The Power have lost their last five matches against the Giants with their most recent victory in this fixture coming back in Round 20, 2015.
After comfortably winning their opening four games, Ken Hinkley’s side fell to their first defeat of the season to Brisbane but still occupy top spot on percentage.
Sunday’s match at Metricon Stadium looms as another stern test for Port against last year's Grand Finalists.
Back-to-back wins over Collingwood and Hawthorn has lifted the Giants into the top eight with a 3-2 win-loss record.
Forwards Jeremy Finlayson and Harry Himmelberg kicked eight between them against the Hawks while reigning Coleman Medallist Jeremy Cameron found form with two goals and two goal assists.
The three-pronged Giants attack will stretch an undersized Power defence that struggled to cope with the height of Brisbane’s rangy forwards.
Tip: GWS by 22 points.
Alex Zaia
Richmond v Sydney
Sunday, 3:35pm, Gabba
It was only last year where Richmond were hit with multiple injuries to some of their best players, effectively forcing them to tread water through the middle part of the season knowing their last seven games were all at the MCG before eventually making up enough ground to become premiers.
Last Sunday against Melbourne, Dion Prestia (syndesmosis), Trent Cotchin (hamstring), Toby Nankervis (syndesmosis) and Tom Lynch (hand) all went down in the one match but unlike last year, the Tigers don’t have time on their side nor uncertainty about who and where they’re playing.
Ahead of this weekend’s clash against a Swans side who have won just two games so far in 2020, Richmond face the prospect of being without four of their most important players through injury as well as Shane Edwards and Bachar Houli, who have opted to not join the Gold Coast hub for personal reasons.
Sydney showed some positive signs against fellow strugglers West Coast last Sunday but were eventually overpowered and despite Richmond being well down in personnel, they should still be able to comfortably account for John Longmire’s side.
The story out of this match will just how many new Tigers players Damien Hardwick chooses to play and whether they’re able to adequately fill the injury void.
Tip: Richmond by 16 points.
Laurence Rosen
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Sunday, 6:45pm, Metricon Stadium
Carlton and the Western Bulldogs have an interesting history, playing two frenetic games in 2019. They split the honours, but both were exhilarating matches under the roof at Marvel Stadium. Of course, this time they’re playing on the Gold Coast.
The Blues exploited one of the Dogs’ biggest weaknesses in 2019 on both occasions in that they struggled to defend multiple key position forwards. In the first game, Harry McKay kicked four, had seven shots on goal and took 11 marks, while Levi Casboult kicked three. Later in the year, it was Charlie Curnow who booted seven.
This time around, the Bulldogs have Alex Keath to bolster their backline, while McKay, Casboult and Mitch McGovern come into this game off a very quiet night against St Kilda.
Carlton’s forward line is the key to this one, given the Bulldogs have conceded scores of 33, 39 and 38 in successive weeks and if the Blues are to be any chance, they need a big game from one of their big three.
The Dogs will worry Carlton up the other end too, boasting numerous small forward options who can all hit the scoreboard and win the football doubled with Josh Bruce who sprung into life at his new club with a bag of six last weekend. How the Blues line up on the likes of Patrick Lipinski, Toby McLean, Laitham Vandermeer and Bailey Dale will be interesting given they’ve struggled to contain small/medium forwards all year.
Only twice sine 2005 have these two sides met somewhere other than Docklands and Carlton have shown better form away from Marvel Stadium this year, but the Bulldogs have too many weapons forward of the ball and are in great form down back. They should be too strong.
Prediction: Bulldogs by 25 points.
Nic Negrepontis