One of my old coaches was Phil Walsh, who in his no-fuss manner used to say that everyone has got a story, meaning everyone has an excuse for a poor performance.
At club land, it might relate to a certain rival, opposition players or travelling interstate.
Excuses such as “we never win on the road” and “they always do this to us” are often used at clubs.
Devon Smith’s comments last weekend about the Essendon-North Melbourne rivalry made headlines but they were accurate.
I have been at both clubs and in my experience, there was a different feel to the week at North Melbourne when Essendon was the next opponent.
In the same way there’s a different feeling at Tullamarine when Carlton are next up.
Lawrence, who use to run the Café at Bombers HQ, used to say that if you only win two games for the year, make sure they’re both against Carlton.
There are occasions when a club feels it matches up well against an opponent - it might be that our strengths can exploit an opposition weakness.
In my time at Essendon, we mostly performed well against Port Adelaide because our midfield could match or better theirs and we were able to get their defenders in one on one situations, which was an advantaged to our forwards.
The Bulldogs, on the other hand, were a team Essendon struggled with. This showed up again on Friday night as the Dogs recorded a comfortable seven goal victory.
So why does it happen?
The two clubs share some coaching lineage, with a number of players and coaches heavily influenced by the Mark Thompson/Geelong teaching of contested ball and outnumber method.
Brendan McCartney, who was at Essendon an assistant coach in 2011 and coached the Dogs between 2012 to 2014, drilled the Bulldogs relentlessly on their method around the contest. Their use of handball to quickly exit is a legacy of his teaching and a key part of their success.
While older Essendon players learnt this method under McCartney and Thompson, the Bombers have since fluctuated with the importance placed on the contest and in the last 18 months, have moved to an opposing model of holding balance outside the contest.
This allows the opposition to outnumber but limits their attacking options by controlling the outer ring of the contest. If a turnover can occur, players on the outside are attacking options in space.
Neither model is right nor wrong, they simply have different points of emphasis. The key is in the consistency of how they are coached and which model best suits your personnel.
The Bulldogs, with their consistent approach, have beaten the Bombers in contested possession in five of their six consecutive wins, and by large margins: 13, 11, 13, 36 and 35 on Friday night.
The Bulldogs have superior size and strength in the midfield and in games against the Bombers, their 190cm+ midfielders have dominated:
| Round 7, 2020 | Round 21, 2019 | Round 3, 2018 | Round 19, 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Macrae (191cm) | 29 disposals, 11 contested possesions | 38 disposals, 14 contested possesions and 1 goal | 30 disposals, 11 contested possesions | 25 disposals, 10 contested possesions |
| Marcus Bontempelli (193cm) | 23 disposals, 8 contested possesions | 26 disposals, 11 contested possesions | 16 disposals, 22 contested possesions and 3 goals | 23 disposals, 15 contested possesions and 2 goals |
| Josh Dunkley (190cm) | Didn't play | 39 disposals, 22 contested possesions and 1 goal | 17 disposals, 4 contested possesions and 2 goals | Didn't play |
On Friday night, without Dylan Shiel through suspension and Jake Stringer through injury, Essendon chose to use their big body midfielders (Langford and Hibberd) as sweeping wingmen at stoppages rather than as inside midfielders. This left smaller mids in McGrath, Merrett, Parish and Smith battling against much taller opponents.
Under Luke Beveridge, the Bulldogs have also troubled Essendon through their ability to control the ball with kick and mark chains.
This was particularly evident in Round 3, 2018, as Essendon shifted to a modified defensive system, and the Bulldogs were able to take more than 150 marks. For the remainder of the season, the Bombers conceded less than 90 marks a game.
In all five losses to the Bulldogs prior to Friday night, the Bombers conceded over 100 marks. In the reduced game time of 2020, the Bombers conceded 73 marks against the Bulldogs, more than their season average, and the Bulldogs finished the game +4% Time in Possession.
Right now, the Bulldogs have the method, personnel and execution to defeat the Bombers. While the Bulldogs have won the last six, it’s worth noting that the Bombers won the six previous meetings, between 2011-14.
Next time they meet, the Bombers will need to address their contest and defending mark chain issues, to avoid seventh straight defeat at the hands of the Bulldogs.
Rob Harding is former AFL strategy coach at Essendon, Adelaide, Geelong and North Melbourne.