Racing analyst and good friend of SEN Track, Jarred Magnabosco, has assessed the card at Swan Hill today and provided his betting suggestions.
Magna's tips can be found at: Follow @MagnaDataTips
RACE 1 – 1200m SW Maiden
GIOTTINI is having his first start for new connections after switching from the Peter & Paul Snowden stable earlier this year. The son of SCAT DADDY has since been gelded & boasts form behind Everest runner TEN SOVEREIGNS back in Ireland.
Looks very well rated him in country maiden conditions off a nice recent Flemington jump out & I think all things going well in transit, he’ll be the one they need to beat.
EXCUSES EXCUSES raced off the pace on debut & hit the line strongly, running the fastest final 200,400 & 600m sectionals of the race. They then elected to go forward last start & he almost pinched an all the way win, but DIRTY DIARY who stalked the speed just got him nose own at the right time to claim victory in a really close finish.
RIP CITY boasts 6 placing are from 15 career starts, including twice here from two attempts. This isn’t an overly strongly race & if the fav doesn’t have the fitness to run them down from a wide draw, then he looks an E/W chance.
My Numbers 5-4-7-8
RACE 2 – 1200m 3YO SW Maiden
I thought COMPARDY was very good on debut last year behind a pretty handy horse. He came back 1st-up 3 weeks ago for his second career start & was heavily backed late, went forward and almost pinched it.
ELLE OF A BREEZE was very good on debut, got way too far back, but hit the line strongly into 4th. Looks to be speed here today, will go back & stepping up to 1200m looks ideal, I can see her being very strong late.
Fitter now, back on top of the ground and heavily supported. He looks very hard to beat in this race if he can get a handy run in transit.
BROCCOBAMA was $9s out to $15 on debut, raced extremely green, but hit the line really well on the HEAVY9 at Echuca. He’s certainly not the worst horse in this race & looks a smokie at odd’s.
My Numbers 3-10-2-6
RACE 3 – 1600m SW Maiden
This is a race with 3 winning chances:
BLADNOCH will go into today’s race with 4 gear changes & looking to break through at his 10th career start for the Lindsay Park operation. I think he finds a nice race here today on what looks his best chance of winning this prep.
YULONG SONG is a nicely bred Galileo gelding who is 2nd-up today and back on top of the ground after getting well back in heavy conditions when fresh. I don’t think he’s a star, but this field is certainly very winnable.
LEGEND OF ZORRO is the race favourite, Looks to have a nice turn of foot but may get swept back from that inside draw and be ridden for luck. Looks fairly short in betting, but any big late push, could be key.
You couldn’t find a better-bred racehorse than EMPIREOFTHEDRAGON a Galileo x Atlantic Jewel gelding on debut. My mail is he isn’t very good though, so don’t expect much here.
My Numbers 1-6-4-12
RACE 4 – 1600m BM58 Handicap
Really keen on CATEGORY FIVE here today who is 4th-up in his 3rd preparation and starting to look progressive now after a nice strong maiden win last start.
The Ciaron Maher train gelding was nominated for 3 races, so they have targeted this one today. He is rock hard now & finds a really nice race here.
All things going well, I expect he’ll lead again and be very hard to get past. Best of the day!
My Numbers 3-4-10-2
RACE 5 – 1600m BM58 Handicap
JENKINS well down in grade & back on top of the ground is the horse to beat. Market support late is the biggest guide but looks the one they need to beat.
Of the others, CAPE MOUNT looks the biggest danger, but again too short, while COLD BEERS & JEUNE ELVIS look chances at odds.
My Numbers 2-1-12-3
RACE 6 – 975m BM58 Handicap
Not keen at all here over the short trip.
THE MAYOR could give a really nice show off the pace. Carries a big weight, but well back in grade today & win wouldn’t shock, market best guide.
GAGA’S BELLE looks to get the tempo to suit, camp off them and finish late, but taking on the older horses, not keen.
THUNDERBOLT TWO is 1st-up off a long spell, market best guide, but from the draw and plenty of speed, I’d like to see McNeil take a sit just off them.
HAY CLIFFY drawn the carpark, but off a really quick tempo, should be hitting the line strongly, just needs luck.
Jack Martin will lob 63.5kg on ROYAL TYKE who was super last start, but winless on GOOD tracks from 6 attempts & may find that extra 2kg a real battle late.
My Numbers 4-12-13-7-3
RACE 7 – 2400m BM64 Handicap
ASCOT RED pulled a performance from the ages out last start when running home into 2nd at Moonee Valley in 78 grade at $91.
Supported today early $15 to $10 so expect he may have found a new lease on life. AMERICAN IN PARIS & YOUNG HOSTESS both look to be chances at a handy price while INTO RIO rounds out the top 4, but looks short in price here.
My Numbers 2-3-8-5
RACE 8 – 1300m MILDURA CUP - Handicap
EAST INDIAMAN comes here fresh off some nice jump outs & mail is the horse is going really well.
His form where he split BRAVO TANGO and WILLIAM THOMAS as Flemington wins a race of this quality & although he only boasts 2 placings from 3 1st-up attempts, I think the stable have put some work into him and certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him too slick for these.
Draw a line through the last start effort of INN KEEPER he had no chance from the carpark on the HEAVY against the bias and lobbing 61.5kg. Prior to that he was in the money at his previous 4 starts without winning. Drops back in weight, drawn better, Yendall back in the saddle & supported in early betting, I expect a better effort & looks an E/W chance.
MISTER YEOH is now 4th-up, gets back on top of the ground and blinkers on for the first time, so looks a really good race for him to put his best foot forward. Any late market push a big plus.
COMING AROUND could be too smart for these?
Looking to add to the picket fence of 3 wins in a row over in WA and he’s had his quote halved from $4.40 to $2.20. Gets in well at the weights, but I just can’t jump into that price. If he’s the best horse, then I’m happy to watch him win at that price, but otherwise prepared to take him on.
My Numbers 9-3-6-7
RACE 9 – 1200m BM64 Handicap
KAARCHI looks to be a handy little filly with plenty of improvement to come. Whether or not it’s today or not, I’m not sure, but she has another win in her this prep from what I’ve seen.
JITTERY JACK 2nd-up today should be better today and I would expect a bold E/W showing.
My Numbers 13-2-16-1
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