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Who will win and why? Round 9 tips and predictions

2020-07-28T15:43+10:00

Here we go. The footy frenzy begins on Wednesday night with 33 games in 20 days.

The Bulldogs v Tigers is first cab off the rank in Round 9 with games spread from midweek through to Sunday.

See who we predict to win and why this weekend 👇

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All times AEST


WB v RIC

Wednesday, 7:10pm, Metricon Stadium

Western Bulldogs come into this Wednesday night fixture having last beaten the Suns in a tight one at this venue last Thursday in a game where they went inside forward 50 less regularly than their opponents but were more efficient in attack.

On the flip side, Richmond dominated large portions of their Friday night clash with GWS but were unable to get the score on the board.

The Bulldogs have had the wood over the Tigers in recent times, winning five of their past six encounters, with Richmond’s only win in that time coming in a lucky two-point affair late in 2018. Three of those Dogs wins have been by two points, 10 points and five points. They just seem to match up well against the Tigers with Luke Beveridge enjoying some recent dominance over Damien Hardwick.

On the personnel front for the Dogs, Toby McLean and former Tiger Sam Lloyd - who has been out with a broken collarbone since Round 4 - are the replacements for injured youngster Callum Porter and Lachie Young who has been dropped.

The Tigers get captain Trent Cotchin back from a hamstring injury in a major boost for their midfield, while Sydney Stack also returns with Jack Ross and Oleg Markov for his first game since Round 17 last year. Daniel Rioli, Jack Graham and Patrick Naish have all been omitted while Nick Vlastuin is out with a calf issue.

Richmond has been getting enough ball inside 50 but the Bulldogs have generally been defending quite well. Double that with the Tigers’ defence and system, which is up and running right now, and we’re not expecting this to be a high-scoring affair.

It will likely be tough, competitive and very close, as Dogs v Tiges games normally are, but with a spot in the eight up for grabs, the reigning premiers need to will themselves to a win and can do so if they clean up their connectivity going forward.

Tip: Richmond by 5 points

Andrew Slevison


MEL v PA

Thursday, 7:50pm, Gabba

Both sides will be looking to atone for defeats in Round 8.

Playing in front of their starved fans, the Power were stunned by a rampant Saints outfit. Melbourne, on the other hand, had their chances, but couldn't get over the line against the in-form Lions on the Gold Coast.

After both being quiet in Round 8, Port will be looking for big games from stars Charlie Dixon and Travis Boak. Dixon, arguably the best key forward in the league this season, managed just the one goal, while Boak, who has been in stellar form in 2020, was held to 15 possessions (his season average is 22). When these sides last met (Port beat Melbourne by 26 points in Round 1 last year), Boak filled his boots, finishing with 34 disposals and a goal.

The Demons will be looking to dominate the clearances, with gun ruckman and captain Max Gawn likely to dominate emerging big man Peter Ladhams (assuming Scott Lycett fails to come up).

Similar to last week, the Demons will be gallant, but Port's class should see them home.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 16 points

Trent Masenhelder


CAR v HAW

Friday, 5:40pm, Optus Stadium

This will be a serious mental battle with a number of factors at play. Carlton has beaten Hawthorn only once since Round 6, 2005, but goes in favourites this week against a Hawks side that has lost four games in a row. The Blues have all the momentum and already got one monkey off their backs in the last week, ending a five-loss streak to North Melbourne.

On paper, Carlton matches up well against Hawthorn too. The Blues want to lock the ball in their forward half and play a territory game of footy, which is helped when they dominate in the clearances. They rank 8th in clearances this year, beating the previously top-ranked North Melbourne on the weekend. Hawthorn sits equal 16th for clearances per game, with their midfield mix not gelling how they hoped.

Hawthorn’s tall backline has also struggled to move the ball from one end to the other, which will be made harder by Carlton’s high pressure forwards, including Eddie Betts, Jack Martin, David Cuningham, Michael Gibbons and a rotating resting midfielder.

Carlton has shown they’re trustworthy this season, while Hawthorn has proven the opposite, losing games to teams around them on the ladder in Sydney and Melbourne. The Blues meanwhile have had poor quarters, but have been in every game, holding an average losing margin of just 12 points.

Tip: Carlton by 20 points

Nic Negrepontis


ESS v BRI

Friday, 8:10pm, Metricon Stadium

The Bombers were hardly convincing against the lowly Crows, but, importantly, found a way to notch another win. They sit inside the top eight, with five wins and two losses (and a game in hand), but I'm not a believer.

Four of their victories have been against bottom-five teams (Sydney 14th, Fremantle 16th, North Melbourne 17th, Adelaide 18th), and by a combined 29 points (an average winning margin of just 7.25 points).

The Dons' 48-point defeat of the Pies in Round 5 was outstanding, however, that seems a lifetime ago.

Brisbane also failed to hit top gear against Melbourne last weekend, but they too came away with the points. Lachie Neale keeps winning plenty of footy, Harris Andrews is a genuine star, and Charlie Cameron is always a handful.

Essendon has won its past two encounters with Brisbane, but I reckon the Lions can buck that trend here.

Tip: Brisbane by 8 points

Trent Masenhelder


NM v ADE

Saturday, 2:35pm, Metricon Stadium

It’s fair to say both of these clubs badly need a win.

North Melbourne battled hard against Carlton last weekend, only to lose by seven points, while Adelaide shot themselves in the foot once again when missing late attempts on goal to go down narrowly to Essendon.

In a major blow for the Crows, leading midfielder Brad Crouch has a hamstring strain, leaving a gaping hole in the middle, while acting captain Tom Doedee has a hamstring/glute problem but may still play. Darcy Fogarty is expected to be back after getting over a shoulder issue while fellow youngster Ned McHenry is also available.

The Kangaroos remain without skipper Jack Ziebell while vital on-baller Ben Cunnington remains in doubt. Thankfully there were no fresh injury worries out of the Blues game which will be welcomed by the Roos’ medical staff given the recent spate.

North had enough opportunities and were back playing fairly competitive footy last weekend while the Crows can blame poor execution for their defeat.

The home side has won this fixture the last 10 times (Adelaide 6, North 4) but of course that doesn’t apply here with the game taking place on neutral territory. The Crows have a slight 3-2 edge in their last five outings.

Very tricky game in which to make a confident selection but with Crouch out and perhaps Doedee too, the pendulum swings ever so slightly towards North in a close one, which would consign the Crows to nine straight defeats.

Tip: North Melbourne by 9 points

Andrew Slevison


STK v SYD

Saturday, 5:10pm, Gabba

After snapping their South Australian hoodoo, St Kilda face another bogey side in Sydney on neutral territory in Brisbane.

The Saints beat Adelaide and Port Adelaide in the space of a week to break through for their first wins at Adelaide Oval which catapulted them into fourth spot.

If they are to consolidate their spot in the top four, they must overcome a horror record against Swans that dates back eight years.

Round 9, 2012 was the last time St Kilda saluted in this fixture before losing the next 10 games by a whopping average margin of 54 points.

The Swans, led by in-form star Tom Papley, ended a four-game losing streak by defeating struggling Hawthorn to inject new life into their season.

Papley’s match-winning four-goal haul sees him leading the Coleman Medal after eight rounds as he underlined his status as one of the premier small forwards in the competition.

St Kilda’s coaching staff will be no doubt be putting time into how they will go about quelling Papley’s influence who has played a virtual lone hand up forward for the Bloods this season.

It’s another big opportunity for the Saints against lowly opposition, will they take it?

Tip: St Kilda by 10 points

Alex Zaia


WCE v GEE

Saturday, 8:10pm, Optus Stadium

Last Sunday, West Coast put in the defining performance of 2020 so far in their comprehensive 66-point defeat of Collingwood, sending a message to the rest of the competition.

The signs were almost all positive for them as they put the Pies to the sword, with Josh Kennedy’s seven goals and Tim Kelly’s 30 touches at an incredible 90 per cent efficiency the standouts.

They take on a Geelong side this Saturday night fresh off their second of two games in Perth before they head back to Queensland later in the season.

These two sides share some strong recent history, the most recent being in last year’s Semi Final at the MCG when the Cats ran out 20-point winners after a five goal to one first quarter.

Geelong’s back six will have their hands full dealing with an in-form Kennedy, Jack Darling and Oscar Allen among others but this game will be decided in the midfield. The battle between Tim Kelly and Patrick Dangerfield promises to excite.

Tip: West Coast by 24 points

Laurence Rosen


GCS v GWS

Sunday, 3:35pm, Metricon Stadium

GWS has owned the battle of the expansion teams since 2015, winning their last eight encounters with Gold Coast. During that time, the Giants launched to the top while the Suns wallowed down the bottom. Now, Gold Coast actually sit higher on the ladder than GWS.

Gold Coast has been tough to take down at Metricon Stadium this year, with only Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs beating them there. The Giants meanwhile are yet to win a game away from their home turf and their win over Richmond papered over the cracks of a team that cannot move the ball from one end to the other and cannot get it inside 50. Toby Greene singlehandedly bailed them out to that end.

However, the Giants have been able to get games on their terms despite these issues whenever they get on top in the clearances – as we saw on Friday night – and they should have midfield ascendency over the Suns if they can limit Jarrod Witts’ inevitable ruck dominance.

Expect a tight game with Gold Coast no longer the prey of top teams, though recent weeks suggest one of GWS’ star forwards will catch fire and it may be enough to separate the two teams.

Tip: GWS by 9 points

Nic Negrepontis


FRE v COL

Sunday, 6:10pm, Optus Stadium

Fremantle will look to spring another surprise against Collingwood in their Round 9 encounter in Perth.

The Dockers caused a boilover by stunning the Magpies by four points at the MCG last season thanks to a late goal from Michael Walters, snapping a four-game winless run in the process.

Nathan Buckley’s side were on the end of a 66-point hiding to West Coast at Optus Stadium last time out, their first loss since relocating to a Perth hub.

Already without Steele Sidebottom (suspended), Jordan De Goey (finger) and Jeremy Howe (knee), the understrength Pies were further depleted when captain Scott Pendlebury pulled out minutes before the opening bounce with a tight quad.

Pendlebury will miss the next two weeks after scans discovered a slight strain to his quad.

With four games in 13 days spread across three cities, it’s set to be a testing period for Collingwood but also a good opportunity considering all four opponents – Fremantle, Sydney, Adelaide and Melbourne – sit outside the top eight.

It’s the third of five straight home matches for the Dockers who have shown signs of improvement under rookie coach Justin Longmuir.

They could only munster just two goals in Monday night's dour loss to fourth-placed Geelong.

The Magpies have won their last two games against Freo at Optus Stadium by an average margin of 19.5 points.

Tip: Collingwood by 21 points

Alex Zaia


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