In a traditional 22-game season, 12 or 13 wins and a healthy percentage will earn a team an opportunity to play finals footy.
This year, in a 17-game season, the numbers reduce to 9 or 10 wins and a healthy percentage.
With all teams now having either four or five games remaining, it’s time to drill down on those on the edge of the top eight and have a look at what they do well and what areas they can improve in the run home to finals.
6th: St Kilda (32 points, 8-5 from 13 games, 114.5%)
To play: Melbourne (Alice Springs), Hawthorn (Metricon), West Coast (Gabba), GWS Giants (TBC)
What The Saints Do Well
The high scoring Saints have made the most of their opportunities going inside 50 in 2020. While ranking in the bottom half for generating inside 50s, they’ve taken the 5th most forward 50 marks and their elite goalkicking accuracy has them in the top four for attack.
Despite losing Jade Gresham to a back injury, the Saints still have a deep and hard running midfield that tests the opposition’s ability to cover the ground. The recruitment of Brad Hill and Zak Jones has improved the Saints’ ability to transition from contest to contest.
Where The Saints Can Improve
Despite having an elite pair of rucks in Ryder and Marshall, the Saints rank in the bottom six for clearance differential. The Saints have had strong performances in centre bounces, which assists with gaining field position, but can be vulnerable at midfield stoppages.
In recent years, the Saints’ performances have been dictated by their defensive pressure – in their close lose to Brisbane they recorded 26 more tackles than the Lions. However, if teams can get outside the Saints’ immediate pressure, their defensive system can be stretched, allowing uncontested chains of play.
7th: Western Bulldogs (28 points, 7-6 from 13 games, 101.4%)
To play: Geelong (Metricon), West Coast (Metricon), Hawthorn (Adelaide Oval), Fremantle (TBC)
What The Dogs Do Well
The Dogs deep collection of midfield talent provides them with a strong contest and ground ball team, ranking top four for disposals on the back of their quick hands around the contest.
As they showed in the third quarter against Melbourne, when the Dogs stretch the ground with length, they can transition the ball the length of the field better than any team in the AFL, as they did in 2019.
Where The Dogs Can Improve
As they play with length in attack, the Dogs then struggle to defend the ground when turning the ball over in their forward half. The Dogs aggressive high half backs can be caught out of position and unable to recover to defend their opponents.
Opposition teams that have a focus on shifting the ball on turnover can catch the Dogs defenders out of position and create fast break opportunities on counterattack. This is a key reason why the Dogs rank 13th for points against in 2020.
8th: Collingwood (26 points, 6-1-5 from 12 games, 104.9%)
To play: North Melbourne (Gabba), Carlton (Gabba), Brisbane (Gabba), Gold Coast (Gabba), Port Adelaide (TBC)
What The Pies Do Well
The Pies’ biggest strength in 2020 has been their defensive structure behind the ball, conceding the 3rd least points from Rounds 1-12, despite the loss of Jeremy Howe to injury.
Brodie Grundy’s tap work gives first look at stoppage, in particular from centre bounce, which generates initial field position for the Pies. Collingwood is top four for Time in Forward Half, and also ranks top four for preventing scores from stoppage and from turnover.
Where The Pies Can Improve
The Pies’ forward half has been decimated by injury this season and as a result their forward efficiency has suffered. The remaining games provide an opportunity to settle their forward mix and generate synergy in positioning and leading patterns heading into finals.
Through the midfield the Pies are prone to over possessing by handball, and a more direct path to goal will give their forwards more one-on-one opportunities.
9th: Melbourne (24 points, 6-6 from 12 games, 112.1%)
To play: St Kilda (Alice Springs), Sydney (Cairns), Fremantle (Cairns), GWS Giants (Gabba), Essendon (TBC)
What The Dees Do Well
Melbourne is one of the best contest teams in the AFL, ranking top three for contested possession differential, with a particular strength around winning hard ball inside the contest (Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney, Angus Brayshaw, Christian Petracca).
The Dees’ back six has been well settled this year, ranking in the top six for points against in the first 12 rounds. Their ball-use out of the back half has improved throughout the season, particularly on turnover.
Where The Dees Can Improve
Defensive pressure, particularly in the forward half, is the major area Melbourne can improve. In the first 12 rounds, the Dees ranked 18th for tackles and allowed their opposition the 3rd most uncontested possessions.
Prior to the Bulldogs game, Melbourne had settled on a forward mix that provided marking targets and defensive pressure. The late change due to Nathan Jones’ quad injury brought Mitch Hannan into the side, and the Weideman-McDonald-Fritsch-Hannan-Melksham mix was unable to pressure the Dogs’ defensive half attack, leaving too much to Spargo and Pickett. In their third quarter burst, the Dogs kicked four of their six goals from defensive half chains, as the Dees were unable to pressure the Dogs switch.
A slightly smaller and more mobile forward mix will create more defensive pressure, as it showed in the Dees impressive win over the Pies.
10th: Carlton (24 points, 6-6 from 12 games, 100%)
To play: Collingwood (Gabba), GWS Giants (Metricon), Sydney (Metricon), Adelaide (Metricon), Brisbane (TBC)
What The Blues Do Well
The Blues play a good forward half game, generating repeat entries on the back of forward pressure and their backs setting up well behind the play. The Blues are top six for Time in Forward Half and generating inside 50 entries, while also ranking top six for clearance differential.
Carlton has an ability to control the air at both ends of the ground, with tall marking targets in Levi Casboult and Harry McKay forward of the ball, while Liam Jones and Jacob Weitering provide intercepts in defence
Where The Blues Can Improve
When teams break through the Blues’ defensive shape, they generate easy scoring opportunities. The Blues have conceded the 2nd most forward 50 marks this year, which leads to Carlton’s defence ranking in the bottom four.
This year Carlton has had a number of close games, with six of their 12 games decided by under 10 points. Composure with the ball, and their ability to control possession late in quarters and late in games will be a focus area in the coming weeks.
11th: GWS Giants (24 points, 6-6 from 12 games, 96.8%)
To play: Fremantle (Optus), Carlton (Metricon), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Melbourne (Gabba), St Kilda (TBC)
What The Giants Do Well
While the Giants have been a low forward 50 entry team this year, their forwards have capitalised on the limited opportunities, ranking top four for converting entries to scores.
The Giants have won the clearance count in eight of their 12 games and impressively won centre clearances 12-6 against the most dangerous centre bounce team in the AFL, West Coast, in Round 13.
Where The Giants Can Improve
The Giants have had two major issues in 2020, their transition in general play, and their lack of forward pressure.
In the first 12 rounds the Giants were one of the poorest sides at moving the ball the length of the field in attack and allowing the opposition to move the ball the length of the field in defence. This prevents the Giants playing a sustainable forward half brand of football, leaving them 15th for Time in Forward Half and 16th for inside 50s.