St Kilda were one of the big stories going into 2020.
A popular new coach in Brett Ratten, joined by important off-field acquisitions from the Hawthorn premiership era in David Rath and Jarryd Roughead, matched with a fantastic haul of mature age talent.
The St Kilda list management committee pulled off a three-card trick to land five trade targets – Bradley Hill from Fremantle, Dougal Howard and Paddy Ryder from Port Adelaide, Zac Jones from Sydney and Dan Butler from Richmond.
After 10 rounds the Saints sat second on the ladder with seven wins and three losses, on the back of four straight wins over Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Sydney and Gold Coast.
Back-to-back wins at Adelaide Oval in the space of five days, where the Saints had not won in 10 previous attempts, was the highlight of an impressive start to the season.
In the following month, the Saints are one win and three losses, with their sole win coming over the Bombers in Round 12, and defeats to Geelong (59 points), Brisbane (2 points) and Melbourne (3 points).
R1-10 – ESTABLISHING THE BRAND
With a collection of new players, the pre-season and early home and away games for the Saints were about establishing their brand of footy.
Offensively the Saints played a high possession kick and mark game, playing on and shifting the angle of play by foot to make use of their improved running capacity.
Zak Jones and Brad Hill provide greater run through the midfield, and the Saints have established a fast and athletic crew of high half forwards, including Dan Butler, Nick Hind and Jack Lonie, as well as rotating midfielders Jack Billings and Jade Gresham.
While the Saints only ranked mid-table for generating inside 50s, their forward group was highly efficient. If unable to find a leading target inside 50, the Saints hit a long central hot spot, 15m from goal, a tactic Hawthorn used extensively in their premiership era to great success.
As a result, the Saints led the league for goalkicking accuracy, with a high percentage of their shots coming from close to goal and in the corridor. The ability of Max King, Paddy Ryder, Rowan Marshall or Tim Membrey to bring the ball to ground created great scoring opportunity for the Saints small forwards.
Defensively the Saints were well organised behind the ball while maintaining their strong tackle pressure that was a hallmark of their best footy under Alan Richardson.
From Rounds 1-10 the Saints conceded the six least marks and forced teams into chaos handball games, which suited the Saints pressure game perfectly.
R11-14 - WHEN THE OPPOSITION GOES TO SCHOOL
Once a team with a new coach has shown the brand of footy they want to play, opposition teams go to work at taking away their strengths. For the Saints, opposition teams have had clear focus points:
1. Keep the Saints skinny
In playing a kick/mark game, the Saints want to stretch the ground with length and width and create space to keep the ball in motion for their runners.
On Saturday night in Alice Springs, Melbourne did an outstanding job at preventing the Saints generating any meaningful field position when attempting to switch the ball.
On a number of occasions, St Kilda defenders looked to take the ball off the line, towards the fat side of the ground, before having to retreat and kick long down the line.
2. Control possession
The Saints Round 11 opponent, Geelong, are the best team in the competition at dictating the tempo of games.
That night at the Gabba, the Cats took 100 marks (to the Saints 51) and recorded nearly twice as many kicks as handballs. In the first 10 rounds, the Saints had forced their opposition into the most handballs and fourth least kicks in the AFL.
The Cats control game took the Saints runners completely out of the equation, and since Round 10, the Saints have conceded the most Marks in the AFL. On Saturday night Melbourne took 81 marks, the third most they have taken a game this year.
3. Keep your backs intact
The Saints’ high half forwards possess enormous speed, and opposition defenders that follow them too far up the ground run the risk of getting into a running race as the Saints charge back to goal.
Opposition defenders have found the right time to let their opponents drift up the ground into density, and hold better shape behind the ball to create delay on the Saints ball movement.
On Saturday night the key matchup in the first three quarters was Brad Hill against Christian Salem. Hill, mostly playing as a forward, would often come up to stoppages and start behind the rucks, then roam the ground to use his running power as an extra linking player.
Salem came up the ground with Hill at stoppages, then allowed him to work into the Saints back 50, while looking to get used when Melbourne had the ball between the arcs.
The net result at three quarter time was that both players had 15 disposals, but Salem had more inside 50s, and the Saints ultimately moved Hill to the wing for the entire last quarter.
4. Kill the hot spot
As the Saints develop greater connection and predictability in their ball movement, opposition teams have strengthened their focus on defending the Saints central hot spot in front of goals.
Aside from taking 18 forward 50 marks against the Bombers in Round 12, the Saints have been kept below their season average for forward 50 marks in their three recent losses.
The greater delay caused by opposition teams holding their defensive shape has made the Saints more reliant on the long kick to the hot spot.
Midfielders transitioning back into defence will work towards this target area, creating greater density at the fall of the ball and creating less opportunities for the Saints smalls to capitalise.
As a result, the Saints smalls goalscoring has dried up. After 21 goals in the first 10 games, Dan Butler has kicked 3 in four weeks, while Billings (2), Kent (1) and Hind (1) have also seen less opportunities in front of goal.
On Saturday night, the Saints goals came from talls (Battle, King, Marshall, Membrey, Ryder) and midfielders (Phillips, Steele).
MAKING FINALS
The Saints have three games remaining, against Hawthorn (Metricon), West Coast (Gabba) and the GWS Giants (TBC). With their healthy percentage, one more win should be enough to play finals for the first time since 2011.
Whether they make it or not, 2020 has been a success for the Saints.
From 14th on the ladder in 2019, they have introduced new players, established their brand of footy and seen how the opposition will attempt to take away their strengths.
Another summer of building their connection on and off field, the continued development of their young stars (most notably rising star Max King) and adding adjustments to their game should see the Saints enter the top 6 in 2021.