As the topsy turvy 2020 AFL home and away season draws to a close, three distinctive groups of teams have emerged.
The bottom eight (Essendon, Carlton, Gold Coast, Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Adelaide) have already begun planning for season 2021, including making heartbreaking decisions around staff in both their football department and club administration.
The middle five (St Kilda, Collingwood, GWS Giants, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne), are in a dog fight for the final three positions in the eight. Match ups within the group, most notably GWS’s two games against Melbourne and St Kilda, will decide who makes the cut.
The top five (Port Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane Lions, Richmond and West Coast) have occupied the top five ladder positions since Round 13, and four of the top five since Round 7.
However, for all the good performances, and all the strengths these five clubs have, there will be at least one part of their game that will keep their coaching staff awake at night.
No club is perfect, and every team has a weak spot that can be exposed in finals footy. Identifying both your own weakness and the oppositions weakness is central to finding the 1-2% difference that wins finals games.
1. Port Adelaide Will our undersized backs and aggressive forward half defence hold up against the better teams?
The league leaders have had an outstanding year, losing only to Brisbane, St Kilda and Geelong. They play a fundamentally sound contest game and spend long periods locked in their forward half (ranking #2 for Time in Forward Half going into Round 16).
In their defeats, and some of their close victories, Port’s high pressing defence has been exposed by quick opposition high half forwards.
Geelong provided the best model for defeating Port in their Round 12 victory, holding Tom Hawkins deep to stretch the back of the Port defence, then using their half forwards to move the ball through the midfield space in transition.
Isolating Port’s undersized key defenders (Clurey, McKenzie, Jonas) in one-on-one match ups against tall forwards is Port’s achilles heel, and their fellow top five opponents have Eric Hipwood, Hawkins, Tom Lynch and Josh Kennedy at their disposal.
In games against top eight teams this year Port have conceded goals from inside 50s at the highest rate in the AFL, showing that once their defence is unsettled, it is vulnerable.
2. Geelong Who misses out?
One of the best problems to have as a match committee is strong depth and competition for spots.
Geelong's win over the Bombers in Round 16 was without the likes of Stanley, Tuohy, Ablett, Clark, Steven, Selwood, Ratugolea, Constable, Narkle, and Simpson, all having played a minimum of two AFL games in 2020.
Not all will make the final Cats 22, and there will be some desperately unlucky names to miss out of the finals mix.
The job of Geelong's coaching staff is to ensure there is no significant disruption to the rest of the Cats team as they drip feed returning players in the coming weeks.
3. Brisbane Lions How to replace Harris Andrews?
Of all the players to suffer a six-week injury leading into finals, Harris Andrews would be the one the Lions match committee would have least preferred.
While the Lions don’t lack experience in their back six, given the likes of Rich, Birchall and even Gardiner and Lester who are both 120+ game players, their defensive group revolves around the intercept and organisation of Andrews.
In the last quarter of the win over Collingwood, the Lions moved Daniel McStay into defence as the Pies pushed Darcy Moore forward to expose the Lions tall defenders.
Brisbane's match committee will have to decide whether to back in a young defender in Jack Payne, or use the last two home and away games to give McStay an opportunity to gel with the rest of the Lions settled back six.
If McStay is used as a defender, and with Tom Fulleraton’s quad injury on Friday night, the Lions tall forward structure will completely change late in the season.
In these situations, clubs will often look to create the least amount of moving parts, and the likely outcome is Payne in for Andrews.
4. Richmond How to find the hunger and avoid off field distractions?
“Interesting” is the only way to describe Richmond's 2020 season.
The Tigers have had distractions on and off field this year, struggling to adjust to hub life and culminating in the 10-game suspensions for Sydney Stack and Callum Coleman-Jones last week.
On-field, the Tigers have suffered a number of suspensions and injuries, most recently losing Grimes and Lambert to hamstring and hip injuries respectively before their Round 16 bye.
As they hit finals the Tigers match committee will have Astbury, Caddy, Edwards, Grimes, Lambert and Prestia available for selection, and similar to Geelong, there will be players who have performed well and be unlucky to miss out.
Teams at different stages of success require different motivation. For Richmond, a third premiership in four years would place them in the conversation with Brisbane, Geelong and Hawthorn as the best team of the 21st century.
This should be enough to find the hunger and narrow the focus, away from the distractions that have engulfed the Tigers' 2020 season.
5. West Coast Eagles Can we find our home away from home?
West Coast's seven games at Optus Stadium has netted them seven wins, while their seven games in Queensland have only provided three wins.
The Eagles can earn the benefit of some home finals in Perth, but to win their second premiership in three years they’ll need to find form at the Gabba.
The biggest change in the Eagles' game when in Queensland has been their inability to play their kick-mark controlled possession style.
In home games, West Coast averages 89.3 marks, while it drops to 73.6 when in the Sunshine State. This includes nearly two less F50 Marks, meaning less opportunities for the likes of Kennedy and Darling to hit the scoreboard.
The Eagles have scored an average of 56.6 points in their Queensland games, more than three goals less than their 76.9 points at home.
West Coast's coaching staff will have to make a decision around adjusting their style for games in the slippery, humid, Queensland conditions. A more direct approach and less stretching the ground with width may be required.