The remarkable 2020 home and away season has come to an end, and with it the curtain draws to a close for 10 teams.
At clubland the final siren of the last game of the season usually signals the beginning of player exit meetings, though in this strange season, many exit meetings have already taken place.
Once player exits are completed, every club coaching group will sit down and review their season. What worked, what didn’t work, and the areas that need to be addressed in the pre-season will be discussed, debated and settled on.
Let’s take a look at the discussions taking place this week.
13th: Essendon (6-1-10, 79.2%)
What Worked
The Bombers saw strong progress from some of their youngsters in 2020, with best and fairest winner Jordan Ridley, Andrew McGrath and Sam Draper all taking big steps forward.
Ridley’s intercept marking was a feature in defence, with teams beginning to deploy accountable forwards on him late in the season.
McGrath’s ability to use his legs to run out of contests stood out in the Bombers' handball happy midfield, and Draper’s competitiveness and follow up impressed in his return from a 2019 knee reconstruction.
Zach Merrett’s ball use and competitiveness through the midfield, as well as Adam Saad’s defensive roles and run off half back also stood out. Both players recorded top three finishes in the club's best and fairest.
What Didn’t Work
For the second year in a row, the Bombers struggled to defend in transition, allowing opposition teams to take the ball the length of the field from turnover the most in the AFL.
A poor defensive system left the Bombers ranking bottom four for points against, on adjusted figures (for shorter game time) they conceded 92.7 points a game - their worst since 2016.
While the Bombers ranked top eight in clearance differential, it came from sending one or two forwards up to midfield stoppages, leaving their forwards consistently outnumbered. The Bombers' best patches in 2020 came from keeping even numbers ahead of the ball, often in the second half of games.
Pre-Season Focus
A significant change in defensive focus is required, away from the foldback unpressured defence of 2019 and 2020.
Essendon's contest work will also be a focus, after dropping to 15th for contested possession differential. Too often the Bombers contest method left them outnumbered in contest to contest transition.
Way Too Early 2021 Forecast
12th-16th
12th: Fremantle (7-10, 93.7%)
What Worked
New coach Justin Longmuir instilled a strong defensive focus for the Dockers and saw immediate results.
Fremantle had the fifth best defence in the AFL in 2020, ranking top four for preventing scores from both stoppage. Their ability to maintain their defensive shape behind the ball in transition was particularly impressive.
Superstars Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters spent more time as forwards, allowing the Dockers to give midfield minutes to Andrew Brayshaw, Adam Cerra and Caleb Serong, ably supported by David Mundy.
Despite limited entries, Matt Taberner impressed as a key forward, and combining with Rory Lobb and Fyfe provided strong aerial targets ahead of the ball.
What Didn’t Work
Fremantle averaged only 50.9 points a game, 16th in the AFL, on the back of ranking 17th for inside 50s.
Stoppage work was also an issue the Dockers, ranking 14th for clearance differential. This combined with their ball movement issues in the first half of the season meant the Dockers were unable to lock the ball in their forward half or generate enough quality scoring opportunities.
Pleasingly for the Dockers, in the last month of the season, despite playing games in difficult Cairns conditions, the Dockers showed a high possession kick-mark game.
Fremantle shifted the ball to the fat side of the ground and maintained control of the ball, taking the second most marks in the last month.
Pre-Season Focus
Offensive connection and settling on a preferred forward mix with Lobb, Taberner, Jesse Hogan and a rotating Fyfe.
Way Too Early 2021 Forecast
9th-12th
11th: Carlton (7-10, 94.3%)
What Worked
The contest was a strong suit for the Blues in 2020, ranking top five for contested possession differential, assisted by a top three ranking in contested marks differential.
In attack, Harry McKay and Levi Casboult provided strong marking targets, and the returning Eddie Betts finished third in their goalkicking. It remains to be seen what mix of McKay, Casboult, Mitch McGovern and Charlie Curnow (who missed the entire season with injury) the Blues will prefer going forward.
Sam Docherty returned strong after two years out with injury and Jacob Weitering put himself in contention for All Australian selection with a strong season at centre-half back.
What Didn’t Work
Carlton struggled with opposition momentum in 2020, conceding runs of five-plus goals on nine occasions. Of particular concern were slow starts late in the season, with the Blues having four 1st quarters with one goal or less in their last eight games.
Early in the season the Blues conceded high numbers of forward half turnovers from poor ball use in their back half, though this improved through the second half of the year.
Pre-Season Focus
Handling opposition momentum and building a fast start mentality will be the primary focus for the Blues
Way Too Early 2021 Forecast
6th-10th
10th: GWS Giants (8-9, 95.6%)
What Worked
In 2020 the Giants were well structured from stoppage offensively, ranking in the top six for scores from stoppage, despite finishing the season in the bottom six for clearance differential.
While they didn’t benefit from a volume of entries for most of the season, ranking 16th for inside 50s, the Giants forwards were highly efficient. GWS ranked top four for generating scores and goals from their inside 50 entries.
The Giants' contest work was inconsistent compared to previous years, however in their best performances such as their win over Richmond in Round 8, it was a strength.
What Didn’t Work
The Giants suffered from poor transition both offensively and defensively in 2020.
Offensively the Giants were the worst team in the competition for moving the ball the length of the field. The move of Lachie Whitfield to half-back helped in the second half of the season, but a lack of transition from midfielders and forwards to get back to provide support and outlets hurt the Giants ball movement.
Conversely, when the Giants did go forward, their midfield and backs were unable to compress the ground to lock the ball in their forward half. GWS ranked in the bottom four for allowing their opposition to move the ball the length of the field and 17th for time in forward half.
Pre-Season Focus
Transition running and setting the ground up offensively and defensively will be a big focus for GWS.
Offensively the Giants need to find the ball movement method that best suits their personnel.
With the retirement of Sam Jacobs and Shane Mumford turning 34 during the season, the Giants have a major question mark around their ruck stocks.
Way Too Early 2021 Forecast
6th-10th
9th: Melbourne (9-8, 107.8%)
What Worked
After a poor 2019 season, Melbourne got their contest DNA back, ranking top four for contested possession differential.
Offensively the Demons were able to move the ball well out of their back half, generating the sixth most inside 50s and the fifth most scores from Turnover.
Melbourne's back six was settled, with Steven May, Jake Lever, Michael Hibberd and Christian Salem playing the majority of the season together. The form of May in particular was a stand out, putting him in All Australian contention.
Christian Petracca took a step towards becoming an elite midfielder, with improved endurance helping him to get to more contests and use his speed and power to burst out of contest. Petracca also kicked the Dees fourth most goals for the season, playing a mix of midfield and forward.
What Didn’t Work
From Rounds 1-11, Melbourne ranked third for inside 50s and 16th for converting their F50 entries to scores.
The mix of forwards was an issue for the Demons for the majority of the season. While Sam Weideman has progressed well, Tom McDonald was in and out of the side with form, and Luke Jackson was given opportunity to play as a key forward and second ruck.
When the talls combined with mid-sized forwards Bayley Fritsch, Mitch Hannan and Jake Melksham, the Dees struggled to connect inside 50 or put pressure on at ground level.
Later in the season with Melksham playing further up field, Fritsch and Weideman combined as the primary forward targets the Dees looked more dangerous with Kysiah Pickett and Charlie Spargo playing as small forwards.
Pre-Season Focus
For the second year in a row, offensive connection will be a big focus for the Demons.
Off-field, Melbourne face decisions around McDonald’s role as either a forward or a defender, and settling on their preferred mix of talls and smalls.
Way Too Early 2021 Forecast
5th-8th