Last three meetings
2020 Round 10: Richmond 12.10.82 d. Brisbane 4.17.41 (41 points). Metricon Stadium (N)
2019 QF: Richmond 18.4.112 d. Brisbane 8.17.65 (47 points). Gabba (N)
2019 Round 23: Richmond 12.10.82 d. Brisbane 8.7.55 (27 points). MCG (D)
Last Time They Met
A Tuesday night match up at the Gabba saw the Lions off a four day break against the Tigers off a six day break.
As in their previous meeting in the 2019 Qualifying Final, accuracy in front of goal played a major role, with the Lions kicking 4.17 from their 40 forward 50 entries.
In particular, the second and third quarters were costly, where the Lions kicked 1.12 to the Tigers' 6.3.
The Tigers' tall forwards were a strong presence all night, with Riewoldt and Lynch combining for seven goals.
What Brisbane do well
The Lions are a well balanced team in attack, preferring to shift the ball back through the corridor, but capable of kicking long down the line and attacking through contest, on the back of their strong ball-winning midfield.
The Lions have generated the second-most inside 50s, third most marks inside forward 50, and are the number one team for scoring from forward-half intercepts in 2020.
While the Lions are the best in the AFL for generating scores from their forward 50 entries, they are the worst at goalkicking accuracy.
Defensively, the Lions are quick to snap into defence on turnover, defending short options and taking away their opponent's ability to control the ball through mark chains.
What Richmond do well
Richmond have the best collection of hard running midfielders and half forwards in the game.
Their elite work rate allows the Tigers to repeat outnumber, from contest to contest across the field, and their frenetic pace burns opposition teams into the ground.
At stoppages, Richmond will often bring one or two forwards up, with Martin having the licence to sprint forward and provide a dangerous attacking option.
Opposition teams can get caught in the chaos of either handing over opponents or maintaining a spare behind the ball at stoppages. The spare is often then swamped by the charge of Tiger half forward resetting towards goal.
The Tigers backs maintain good shape behind the ball but will work together to support when required. Their communication and instruction from behind the ball is first class, and creates doubt in the opposition ball carriers mind, which buys time for Tigers mids and forwards to pressure.
This year the Tigers are number one for scores from turnover differential and number one for time in forward half.
Something to watch for
The working theory against Richmond is that they want a chaos game, and to avoid a chaos game, you must control the ball against them.
The Lions are capable of doing that, they are a kick/mark team, but as Geelong found in Round 17, the Tigers will tease wide and backwards kicks then shut down any forward progress.
The Tigers get their outnumber from half forwards pushing up the ground, while holding one midfielder in the corridor (often Cotchin) as a release player on turnover.
Can the Lions make use of their extra midfielder in long down the line situations and keep the ball surging forward? Winning or forcing a stoppage in those situations will be an absolute must for the Lions midfield.
One more thing – Richmond have only lost 15 of their last 66 games (with one draw), since the 2017 Premiership. One chink in their armour is that tall forwards have had an impact in their losses. Think Mason Cox in the 2018 PF, Jenkins and Walker combining for 9 goals in early 2018, Cameron and Finlayson combining for 12 in early 2019.
Can Andrews, McInerney and McStay win their aerial battle in the Lions forward half?
And if they do, can the Lions put their accuracy woes to bed early?
Prediction
The Tigers have been the best team of the last four seasons, and have won their last 15 against the Lions.
That said, Brisbane will feel that the 40+ point margins of their last two meetings weren’t an accurate reflection of how close the two sides really were.
Still, it’s impossible to go past the Tigers, and they should get home in a close one.
Richmond by 10 points.