The first week of the 2020 Finals Series was one of the all-time greats, with all four games decided by less than 16 points. Unfortunately the second week didn’t quite live up to the same billing.
The Saints spent most of 2020 as one of the most accurate teams in the AFL, however their goal kicking deserted them on Friday night at Metricon.
St Kilda kicked 6.13 from their 40 entries, and were unable to put enough scoreboard pressure on the reigning Premiers, with Richmond running out 31-point winners.
It was a disappointing end to what has been an excellent season of progress for the Saints.
For Collingwood, their third consecutive year of winning at least one Final ended in a significant defeat to the Cats, by 68 points.
The Pies have had one of the most arduous travel schedules of this crazy 2020 season, and simply didn’t have the legs to challenge a Geelong team that was switched on from the start.
For the coaching staff of St Kilda and Collingwood, this week signals the start of the off-season process, exiting their players and reviewing their season. Here’s how it looks.
5th: St Kilda (6th after H+A, 10W-7L, 116.2%)
What Worked
The Saints’ five off-season signings all had a big impact under new coach Brett Ratten.
Paddy Ryder combined well with Rowan Marshall to provide a strong one-two punch in the Ruck. The Saints finished the season top 4 for both Hit Out Differential and Centre Bounce Clearance Differential. Ryder’s absence through injury in the Semi Final was a stand out, as the Tigers won Centre Clearances 15-5.
Dan Butler won the Saints goalkicking, and his first half of the season in particular had him in contention for the All Australian team. Zac Jones added hardness and speed in the midfield, finishing 2nd for Clearances.
Brad Hill’s run and carry was a key element to the Saints’ improved ball movement. While his Semi Final performance was underwhelming, Hill finished the season top 6 for both Inside 50s and Rebound 50s, showing his enormous work rate.
Despite a difficult Semi Final against Tom Lynch, Dougal Howard combined well with the St Kilda defenders to intercept and rebound, finishing with the 2nd most Rebound 50s at the club.
The Saints’ ball movement was their biggest weapon, finishing the home and away season with the 4th best attack in the AFL. Their predictability going inside forward 50 led to scoring opportunities in dangerous attacking positions, creating high levels of accuracy in front of goal.
Max King showed numerous glimpses of his elite talent. His follow up at ground level for his size, and ability to compete in the air to bring the ball to ground for the Saints small forward brigade were particularly impressive.
King, Jack Steele, Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield all took steps forward as part of the Saints young group of talent.
What Didn’t Work
Four of the Saints’ seven home and away losses came by less than a goal, with the Round 1 loss to North Melbourne and Round 6 loss to Fremantle coming after getting out to more than five-goal leads.
While the Saints were able to stretch the ground with width and length to create space for their runners, on Turnover they were prone to allowing their opposition easy uncontested chains.
Once the Saints’ defensive system was broken, opposition teams scored at a high rate. From their F50 entries, St Kilda’s opposition scored at the 5th highest rate in the AFL, and they conceded the 4th most F50 marks in 2020.
Pre-Season Focus
St Kilda will want to build on their connection both on and off field as this group of players comes together to take the Saints towards a sustained run at finals footy. Adding another class ball user through the midfield would be a bonus.
Late quarter and late game situational play will be a focus, to develop their ability to close out tight games.
Victories in their four losses by less than a goal would have put them on the same number of wins as Port Adelaide and Brisbane at the top of the ladder.
Shutting down opposition uncontested mark chains and recovery defence on Turnover will be also be key game style focus.
Way Too Early 2021 Forecast
3rd-6th
6th: Collingwood (8th after H+A, 9W-1D-7L, 109.5%)
What Worked
The Pies were outstanding defensively in 2020, finishing the season with the 3rd fewest Points Against, while conceding the least Inside 50s and 2nd least F50 Marks of any team.
These numbers were even more impressive considering the loss their best intercepting defender, Jeremy Howe, from Round 4 onwards.
No team had more of the ball than Collingwood in 2020, and the Pies finished top two in Contested and Uncontested Possession differential. Their high handball game contributed to their possession numbers, though at times to the detriment of their ball movement.
The Pies’ deep collection of midfielders was added to by the emergence of Josh Daicos on the Wing. Daicos’ smart ball-use, composure around the contest and ability to push forward and hit the scoreboard stood out.
While their forward line suffered from injuries, form and poor ball use from the midfield, the Pies best footy showed a flexible and versatile forward mix, difficult for opposition teams to defend.
What Didn’t Work
Brodie Grundy was unable to recapture his best form of recent years, where his follow up ability made him an extra midfielder in general play. Grundy dropped from an average of 21.3 possessions a game to 14.6, and his Clearances from 6.1 to 3.3.
Offensively the Pies struggled to hit the scoreboard consistently, finishing the home and away season 13th for Points For.
The Pies win plenty of the ball, but their delivery inside 50 was poor for the majority of the season, the exception being their Elimination Final win over the Eagles.
Collingwood generally play resting midfielders through high Half Forward roles, and these players are drawn up the ground hunting the ball. This gives the Pies extra numbers through the midfield to use, often by hand, but leaves them outnumbered in their Forward 50.
Injuries and availability also hurt the Pies in 2020. Key players to miss games included Pendlebury (4), De Goey (9), Treloar (9), Sidebottom (10) and Howe (15).
Pre-Season Focus
The Pies have two key players to re-sign, in Moore and De Goey. They’ll be looking to add a Key Forward and some outside ball-use to their midfield, though a resetting high Half Forward in the Dan Butler mould would be a great addition.
On field, the biggest area for improvement for Collingwood is clearly their forward 50 entries.
The blueprint is the Eagles Elimination Final. Their ability to shift the angle of play, take the ball forward, use overlap handball to break lines and attack the back of the opposition defence was first class on the night.
A more predictable method of ball movement will help the Pies forwards enormously, and capitalise on the attacking weapons in their forward half.
Way Too Early 2021 Forecast
3rd-6th