Bob Murphy and Andy Maher will be paying close attention to the 2017 National Draft this year and the league’s fourth-year players in general.
The SEN Drive hosts are fascinated by fourth-year players and whether there is a natural leap after three years in the system.
The former Western Bulldogs captain went through some examples of players who showed promising signs in their first three years before ‘going pro’ in year four.
“Lance Franklin in his third year kicked 70 goals and announced himself as a prodigious talent,” Murphy told SEN’s Bob and Andy.
“In his fourth year he goes pro on our markings and kicks 118 goals. That’s the year we go, okay, that’s Buddy.
“Nick Riewoldt takes 200 marks for the first time in his fourth year.
“Simon Black goes from a 400-possession season to 600 in his fourth year and it’s across the board.
“Luke Hodge goes from an okay third year to 500 possessions in his fourth year. It’s a huge leap.
“It’s the same for Tim Watson, Lenny Hayes and Matthew Boyd. They go from being that talent to making it happen in that fourth year.”
Murphy also points to the Western Bulldogs’ 2016 premiership year and the influence fourth-year players had on that team's spike.
“Here’s how it can affect a club if they come through in the same year. The Bulldogs won it in 2016 and so the equivalent of that cluster is the 2012 draft and it is Jack Macrae, Jake Stringer, Nathan Hrovat, Lachie Hunter and Josh Prudden,” he said.
“That group came in at the same time and it changes your team and your footy club.
“Macrae would’ve had the most possessions for us that year, Stringer would’ve been the leading goal kicker and Hunter would’ve been just behind Macrae. They were central figures in that team.”
Maher pointed out Brisbane as one team with a cluster of players entering their fourth season in 2021.
“If you look at the group of players who sit in this category club by club, there’s one club that jumps off the page at you and it’s Brisbane,” he said.
“Listen to this group of players. Imagine if four of the six of this group do something like a couple of the players you’ve mentioned have done.
“These are the players going into their fourth season: Cam Rayner, Zac Bailey, Brandon Starcevich, Connor Ballenden, Jack Payne – who insiders at Brisbane tell you is ready to be a real player and Oscar McInerney.
“That’s six players who have already shown to various degrees some capability.”
Murphy added: “And it does fit with a few of those names where people listening would say ‘yeah I probably would mark this year as the year to mark Cam Rayner a little harsher’”.
West Coast is another team with a talented group of fourth-year players this season.
“The other one that jumps off the page is that West Coast Eagles group. We’ve already mentioned Tim Kelly, he goes into his fourth season, but obviously came in mature age,” he said.
“Zac Langdon arrives at the club from the Giants, Jarrod Brander, they’re waiting for him, Oscar Allen, Liam Ryan, Brayden Ainsworth and Jack Petruccelle who went backwards last year, but we’ve seen a bit from him.
“They get three or four of that group finding a distinctly better level, what an impact they could have on West Coast.”
Notable players from the 2017 National Draft Murphy and Maher are particularly interested in this season: Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan, Oscar Allen, Hunter Clark, Aaron Naughton, Rowan Marshall, Adam Cerra, Andrew Brayshaw, James Worpel, Noah Balta, Jaidyn Stephenson and Cam Rayner.
Others drafted in 2017 include: Paddy Dow, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Nick Coffield, Darcy Fogarty, Ed Richards, Jack Higgins, Wil Powell, Tom De Koning, Tom McCartin, Charlie Constable, Kane Farrell, Gryan Miers and Liam Baker.