Another fabulous meeting at Flemington highlighted by the Group 1 Australian Cup and Newmarket Handicap.
Weather forecast is 20 degrees and fine, the rail is out 5m and the track is a Good 4.
RACE 1 - TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes G3 (1200m)
Have the short favourite La Rocque (6) comfortably on top, but no prizes there. Was an impressive debut winner at Pakenham and the McArdle stable has a high opinion of the filly.
Tempest Charm (1) appears the best value in the race and can improve third-up to 1200 metres.
Flying Evelyn (2) is in the mix on the back of her debut Moonee Valley maiden win and De Long Star (4) is next best.
Suggested bet: Hard to confidently recommend anything considering the lack of exposed form. Expecting the favourite La Rocque to win but not keen on the price.
RACE 2 - 2021 Lexus Melbourne Cup Tour (1400m)
Conceited (1) raced well first-up in over a year at Caulfield a fortnight ago. Drops from a Group 3 to a 3YO handicap here. If he has taken improvement since his return then he can figure in this.
The favourite Annavisto (7) looks hard to beat but rises from a BM64 so must be wary, especially at the price.
Cumberbatch (5) will appreciate stepping out to 1400 metres and Miss Inbetween (8) can be competitive if she jumps well and settles on the speed from the outside gate.
Suggested bet: Leaning Conceited each-way at a nice price. Concede Annavisto can win comfortably but happy to leave at the short quote.
RACE 3 - Furphy Ale March Stakes (1400m)
Another race with a short-priced favourite in the form of Odeum (5). The Thousand Guineas winner resumes here following a superb first campaign which yielded three wins from five starts.
She takes on the older horses headed by So Si Bon (1) who ran ok in the Futurity first-up and now drops from Group 1 to Listed level.
Iconoclasm (3) must be considered but rarely does his best work fresh while Pretty Brazen (2), Plein Ciel (4) and Holbien (7) all have winning chances.
Suggested bet: Odeum on top but wary at such a short price. Can entertain a bet if she drifts a bit.
RACE 4 - Sires' Produce Stakes G2 (1400m)
This is a fairly tricky affair.
A number of different formlines with some Sydney horses in town and some from regional Victoria to have a crack at HQ.
Landed with Kooled (9) on top after a nice debut run at Canterbury on heavy going. Willie Pike is aboard and he can certainly figure with Team Hawkes bringing him straight to Flemington.
Paulele (2) was below par at Rosehill last time and should improve on top of the ground in Melbourne.
Lightsaber (3) claimed back-to-back Sandown triumphs, but this looks much more competitive than those.
Hitotsu (10) is next after a middling run in the Blue Diamond when was never a chance from the rear of the field at $201. This appears a bit easier but he would have to improve.
A few other chances including Saif (6), Wolves (14) and Pounding (8).
Suggested bet: Not overly keen to get heavily involved here. Small bet Kooled at around $5.
RACE 5 - Incognitus Stakes (1100m)
Pretty keen that the impressive Oxley Road (2) can continue on his winning way. Has been super in his two career victories to date and expecting him to go on with it.
Bella Nipotina (3) was touched off by a roughie here last Saturday and is on the quick back-up.
Marboosha (5) ran into win machine Written Beauty twice last prep and should be competitive first-up. Pinkham (7) is also in the mix.
Suggested bet: Keen Oxley Road wins again.
RACE 6 - Newmarket Handicap G1 (1200m)
Huge field for the Newmarket. What a sight this will be!
It's extremely difficult not to be with September Run (14) in this. The Waller filly has a near-perfect record down the Flemington straight and if Craig Williams can avoid trouble from the middle draw, then she should be winning.
If you want to look outside the shorts though, it becomes a bit of a raffle.
Happy to have Swats That (18) as the next best pick, tying in with September Run's Lightning form behind Nature Strip.
The best value is Sirius Suspect (15) who Jamie Kah (off Zoutori) has chosen to ride. Absolutely loves this course and if he can handle the step up in class, then he is right in it.
Brooklyn Hustle (10) was a tragedy in the Oakleigh Plate and with luck can figure in the money. On that basis, Celebrity Queen (5) must be respected while Imaging (3) has a strong chance at each-way odds.
Suggested bet: September Run looks the one for mine. Happy to bet. Can understand if you're not keen on $2.20 in a huge Group 1 field, so...
...away from the fave can entertain Sirius Suspect each-way, Swats That to win and Imaging each-way (more the place).
RACE 7 - Lexus Matron Stakes G3 (1600m)
This looks a perfect setup for Lunakorn (7) following her solid first-up run in the Mannerism at Caulfield two weeks ago. Kah sticks and the mile second-up looks ideal.
It looks as though Sovereign Award (1) will get a soft lead and she could be the forgotten horse after a couple of subpar runs this prep. Races well third-up and the mile is her favoured trip, but she doesn't seem to like Flemington...
Behind her there are a number of runners in the mix led by Spanish Reef (3), Quantum Mechanic (6), Moonlight Maid (4), and Silent Sovereign (2).
Suggested bet: Think it sets up a treat for Lunakorn. Confident she runs very well. Also on Sovereign Award each-way, hoping she gets it her way up front.
RACE 8 - TAB Australian Cup G1 (2000m)
Reigning champ Fifty Stars (3) returns in great order to add a second Australian Cup to his mantle. Looped the field to just miss in the Blamey here last weekend and now on the quick back-up to 2000 looks ideal.
Was happily with Paradee (17) last time and she delivered. Keen to stick on an each-way basis here. Admit races have been run to suit in her three wins on the trot, but you must respect her consistency.
Defibrillate (12) makes the jump to G1 level but is an ATM on legs, Shared Ambition (11) could fire at his pet trip and old boy Humidor (1) represents good value.
Suggested bet: Backing the top two in the market Fifty Stars (win) and Paradee (each-way).
RACE 9 - TAB Kewney Stakes G2 (1600m)
Personally, think Personal (1) is an absolute gem. She was no match for Zou Dancer first-up but now steps to a mile and should be very hard to beat.
Starelle (6) comes out of the same race as Personal and can figure at odds, Yes Baby Yes (2) will be near the speed from the widest gate, while Chica Fuerte (3) and Miss Guggenheim (10) can improve.
Suggested bet: Hoping Personal finishes us off on a winning note.
Suggested multi
Race 5, No.2 - Oxley Road (WIN)
Race 6, No.14 - September Run (WIN)
Race 7, No.7 - Lunakorn (PLACE)
Approx. odds: $10.50
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