It all comes down to this.
Round 9 of the AFLW season will decide:
• Who finishes on top of the ladder – and therefore where the Grand Final might be held.
• Which two teams get a bye in the first week of finals.
• Which two teams will get home finals in week one.
• Who of North Melbourne or Carlton will play finals.
• Who is going to win the wooden spoon.
• And probably every major award.
So no pressure, right?
And you won’t have to worry about a ticket! While AFLW venues aren’t subject to the same 75 per cent capacity limits as we’ll see in the men’s footy in Victoria this weekend – because the 75 per cent cap only applies to tier 1 venues like the MCG, Marvel Stadium and GMHBA Stadium, the league has been steadily increasing crowd allowances at AFLW venues and is confident that anyone who wants to attend an AFLW game this weekend will get a ticket.
Brisbane, Collingwood, Adelaide, Fremantle and Melbourne can all realistically finish between first and fifth based on this weekend’s results.
The Lions and Pies currently hold the top two spots and are four points clear of the pack, but have tough away games against Melbourne and Adelaide respectively.
If Brisbane doesn’t beat Melbourne on Saturday afternoon, the winner of Collingwood and Adelaide on Sunday will likely finish on top and control home field throughout finals.
Could the Magpies finishing on top be the league’s path to its first MCG Grand Final? Collingwood players would rather play their finals at Victoria Park, of course.
The Demons are likely too far behind percentage wise to enter the top two with a win over the Lions, but it could see them hosting a final in week one.
If the ladder stays as it is now, the Demons would have to travel over to Perth for the second time in three weeks and take on Fremantle, while Adelaide would host North Melbourne.
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Given we’re getting Melbourne/Brisbane, Adelaide/Collingwood and North Melbourne/Fremantle this weekend with so much on the line, you could fairly suggest we’re getting pre-finals finals.
However, the top six is not set. North Melbourne has to beat Fremantle at Arden Street on Saturday afternoon to slam the door shut on Carlton’s fingers.
…The Bulldogs and GWS are also mathematically alive, but would need intervention from the Footy Gods to make up the roughly 80 percentage points.
Without the suspended Jenna Bruton, the Kangaroos must beat a Fremantle team coming off a disappointing loss and playing for a home final. Star Kiara Bowers is also available after stunningly overturning her dangerous tackle charge at the AFL Tribunal.
Carlton and Maddy Prespakis have every right to raise their eyebrows at that decision.
Bowers being free to play not only changes the shape of Round 9 and the finals race, but likely means she will win both the AFLW B&F and the AFLCA Award.
North Melbourne has a percentage of 147.3 and Carlton sits at 128.1 after slaughtering Gold Coast in Round 8.
If Fremantle beats the Kangaroos by roughly three goals and Carlton beats GWS in Sydney by roughly three goals, the two could flip and the Blues could fall backwards into the top six.
If Carlton makes finals, they will do so without having beaten any of the top six teams and will go down as the biggest beneficiary of the fixturing-on-the-run.
The only downside of scheduling the top teams to play against each other across the final three weeks is a team like the Blues slips through the cracks and gets a significantly easier draw.
Carlton playing on Sunday means they will know their fate come the bounce of the ball, with the Roos and Dockers playing on Saturday.
This means they will know exactly what they need to do to leapfrog North Melbourne, should the Dockers win.
What does all of this mean? Simply that nothing is certain going into the final round of the AFLW season … except live ladders in the corners of the broadcast all weekend.
Predictions
• Fremantle beats North Melbourne narrowly and Carlton beats GWS, but not by enough to flip the teams as late-game wind and rain in Sydney slows the Blues. • Melbourne’s hot run of form continues, beating Brisbane at Casey Fields. • Adelaide beats Collingwood in a battle of the heavyweights. • Gold Coast beats Geelong to narrowly avoid a winless season and hand the Cats the wooden spoon.
Therefore: Adelaide finishes on top of the ladder. Brisbane holds onto second on percentage, with Collingwood and Fremantle finishing third and fourth.
This would mean Collingwood versus Melbourne and Fremantle versus North Melbourne in week one of finals.
