Round 5 shapes as season-defining for a number of teams.
The loser of West Coast versus Collingwood will be under huge pressure, Carlton has a chance to prove their legitimacy, Brisbane has a must-win clash in the Joe Daniher Cup, Richmond must avoid three losses on the trot and Geelong has a chance to get back on track.
Here are our tips:
See our tips below.
St Kilda v Richmond
Thursday - Marvel Stadium
What version of the Saints will show up? That’s the big question.
If it’s the side we saw against Essendon and Melbourne, the score line could be ugly, but if it’s the unit that dominated the second half against West Coast this game could go either way.
Despite coming off two losses, you have a fair idea of what you’ll get from Richmond and they’ll prove tough to beat as they look to earn their first win since March.
Last time they met was last year’s semi-final and the Tigers recorded a 31-point win. While the end result appears convincing, that margin could have been a lot closer if the Saints had kicked straight.
Richmond had 20 scoring shots to the Saints' 19 in that game and Brett Ratten’s side will need to be more clinical in front of goal if they’re to give themselves a chance this time around.
The game could come down to a key forward battle between Tom Lynch and Max King and Saints fans will be hoping that last week’s five goal haul was a breakout game for their young star.
Conversely, Tigers fans will be hoping Lynch can again get on top of Dougal Howard after he had seven scoring shots (2.5) against him in last year’s semi-final.
The other key to victory for either side is Dustin Martin’s impact on the game. When the Saints beat Richmond in Round 4 last year Martin was kept quiet with just 18 disposals but in the semi-final the superstar stood up with 25 touches and a goal.
It’s a tough ask to bet against Richmond at any stage and unfortunately the Saints just haven’t shown enough consistency to prove they can take the big scalp.
Tip: Richmond by 19 points.
Lachlan Geleit
West Coast v Collingwood
Friday - Optus Stadium
Collingwood is under all sorts of pressure after a week in the media spotlight and face one of the most daunting trips in football as they look to bounce back.
The Eagles will be equally smarting after giving up a 33-point lead last week against the Saints to lose their second straight game at Marvel Stadium.
The Pies have already announced that Fin Macrae will make his debut this week as they look to shake up the side, while Buckley didn’t rule out making more changes ahead of the Round 5 clash.
Forward of centre continues to be a significant issue for Collingwood to solve, and they won’t want to get sucked into the trap of kicking long to West Coast’s tall defenders.
This is also the first time both sides have met since last year’s memorable elimination final, where the Pies won against all the odds to win by a point in one of the more dramatic finals we’ve seen in recent times.
West Coast is undoubted favourites because of where the match is taking place, but don’t discount the wounded Magpies who will be intent on causing another upset.
Tip: West Coast by 9 points.
Laurence Rosen
Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast
Saturday - Marvel Stadium
It would take a brave person to tip against the Bulldogs right now.
After a couple of big scores in a row, the Dogs produced more of a workmanlike performance to get over Brisbane in Ballarat last weekend to showcase their defensive prowess.
Luke Beveridge has the second heaviest scoring team in the league which has also conceded the fewest points, which is a lethal combination.
They lose one element of their defence in Caleb Daniel (suspended) for the Suns clash but that could be offset by the return of elite aerialist Hayden Crozier.
Stuart Dew’s Suns continue to be hit by injury issues with a growing medical list and coming to Melbourne to snatch a win over the ladder leaders just might be a bridge too far.
The Gold Coast side is generally competitive and has the knack of staying in games for long periods, but the Dogs should manufacture more than enough chances to pull away late if they haven’t already stitched the game up earlier.
The last time the Suns played the Dogs at Marvel in Round 3, 2019 they pulled off a smash and grab job, but this weekend’s opponent appears a much better side in 2021 and are heavily favoured to get the job done to cruise away to a 5-0 start.
Tip: Bulldogs by 18 points.
Andrew Slevison
Sydney v GWS
Saturday - SCG
Sydney and GWS will meet on Saturday afternoon in a battle between two teams in situations different to pre-season expectations.
The undefeated Swans are playing with dash and flare and have their focal point in Lance Franklin back inside 50.
The Giants meanwhile are 1-3, ravaged by injury and coming off a back-against-the-wall win over Collingwood.
The Swans losing captain Dane Rampe is a big factor in this one as the key organiser in defence and the player who takes the opposition’s best forward. Given the departure of Jeremy Cameron, Rampe would have been an ideal matchup for Toby Greene, who is in electric form.
Sydney won their 2020 encounter in an ugly affair at Optus Stadium, but both teams are significantly different on paper.
The Giants on their best day have what it takes to end Sydney’s unbeaten run, but it’s hard to tip against the Swans at the minute.
Tip: Sydney by 15 points.
Nic Negrepontis
Carlton v Port Adelaide
Saturday night - MCG
Carlton's season is back on track thanks to consecutive wins over Fremantle and Gold Coast – but a Port Adelaide acid test awaits David Teague’s side.
It wasn’t pretty, but the Blues scraped past the Suns by 11 points in slippery and humid conditions at Metricon Stadium, squaring the ledger at 2-2 after losing their opening two games.
Jacob Weitering and Liam Jones, the cornerstones of Carlton’s defence, combined for 25 intercepts with the Blues conceding just 17 goals in two weeks, albeit against sides not in the premiership equation.
The Blues need a scalp and Saturday night’s meeting with the Power presents the ideal opportunity to pit themselves against a genuine flag contender.
Port Adelaide’s heart-stopping two-point win over Richmond was the perfect response to their Round 3 drubbing to West Coast.
Injuries to Zak Butters (ankle) and Xavier Duursma (knee) soured the victory with the Power young guns sidelined for extended periods.
Robbie Gray’s late goal got his side over the line against the Tigers – and Carlton knows all too well about the Power veteran’s knack of coming up clutch.
Gray’s after-the-siren goal broke Blues’ hearts in a pulsating game at the Gabba last season.
Ken Hinkley’s side will look to bank a first win at the MCG since 2019 – a venue they hope to be playing at later in the season.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 12 points.
Alex Zaia
Brisbane v Essendon
Saturday night - Gabba
It’s all about the Joe show on Saturday night, as the former Bomber takes on Essendon for the first time under the Gabba lights.
The clash also marks Brisbane’s return to the sunshine state after spending three weeks in Melbourne as a result of the city’s COVID cluster.
Both sides lost last week and will be looking to bounce back swiftly, with the Bombers going down to the Swans by just three points, while the Lions were competitive but never really on the Dogs’ level down in Ballarat.
How Essendon approaches their ruck setup will be one of the key story lines in this game, with first-year player Nik Cox forced into the ruck alongside Peter Wright last week. Andrew Phillips competed strongly in a VFL scratch match and could come in to face Oscar McInerney.
Brisbane is the clear favourite for this one and should win, but the Bombers have performed admirably in recent weeks with a clear focus on a pressure-first game plan.
Daniher will take centre stage during the clash, but across the ground there’s plenty to get excited about as two genuinely watchable teams face off in one of the most anticipated games of Round 5.
Tip: Brisbane by 20 points.
Laurence Rosen
Adelaide v Fremantle
Sunday - Adelaide Oval
Adelaide and Fremantle are two young sides seemingly on the rise.
The Crows and Dockers both recorded wins in Round 4 and go into Sunday’s match at Adelaide Oval full of confidence.
Adelaide coach Matthew Nicks could not be happier with how his side has started the season, improving to 3-1 with a 41-point win over North Melbourne.
They have already equalled the number of victories they recorded in the entire of 2020 and are the third-highest scoring team in the competition.
It’s amazing to think last year’s wooden spooners are nestled in the top eight and will view the home meeting against Fremantle as another winnable match.
The Dockers squared their season at 2-2 by beating Hawthorn with inaccurate goalkicking limiting the final margin to 15 points.
Coach Justin Longmuir accused his players of hanging teammates out to dry in the loss to Carlton, but the return of captain Nat Fyfe gave Freo more experience and physicality through the midfield.
Fyfe, who missed the Blues match with concussion, amassed a team-high 31 disposals, six clearances, 11 score involvements but contributed to Fremantle’s wayward kicking for goal, finishing with six behinds.
The dual Brownlow Medallist will be key if the Dockers are to notch their first win outside of Western Australia this season.
It’s hard to go past the resurgent Crows on current form with Coleman Medal leader Taylor Walker in suberb form.
Tip: Adelaide by 16 points.
Alex Zaia
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sunday - MCG
Sunday afternoon footy at the MCG has Hawthorn hosting Melbourne with the two sides sitting at opposite ends of the ladder.
The Hawks have battled away so far in 2021, losing three of four, but have largely made life difficult for their opponents by working hard around the contest.
The Demons are flying with a 4-0 record and appear to have much more substance than they have had in the past few years. Simon Goodwin has instilled a greater defensive mindset and game plan into this group and the players are responding positively.
They comfortably saw off Geelong last weekend and in doing so, sent a message to the rest of the competition that they mean business this season.
Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Max Gawn and Jack Viney are leading the way around the ball while Bayley Fritsch and Kysaiah Pickett are getting the job done inside forward 50. It’s not all smooth sailing through as the Dees will have to deal with the absence of key defender Steven May who will be sidelined with a gruesome eye socket injury.
This weekend they strike a very winnable game and all things being equal should put the Hawks away and continue their winning run.
However, it won’t be all on their terms as Alastair Clarkson has his side fairly well drilled even if they are lacking some star talent at the top end.
Tip: Melbourne by 24 points.
Andrew Slevison
Geelong v North Melbourne
Sunday - GMHBA Stadium
Pressure is mounting on Geelong after their opening month of the season, but they will have an opportunity to find form against the struggling North Melbourne in Round 5.
Patrick Dangerfield returns to the team to steady the midfield, Jeremy Cameron is a shot to debut and they look a much stronger team on paper overall.
North Melbourne meanwhile loses Luke McDonald and Cam Zurhaar on top of their already hefty injury concerns.
The Roos have a percentage of 43 and have been destroyed in final quarters across the season to date, giving up 24 goals and kicking only 7, four of which came in Round 1.
Geelong meanwhile has come under fire for their slow brand of footy and a few flips of the coin landing the other way could see them 0-4 right now.
The Cats also have a dominant record over the Kangaroos, winning their last six encounters.
It’s hard to see that record changing this weekend, even if the Kangaroos are competitive down at Kardinia Park.
Expect a convincing win for the Cats which may help kick start their season.
Tip: Geelong by 49 points.
Nic Negrepontis