Fremantle travels to Adelaide to take on the Crows who have been surprisingly lively to start season 2021.
The Crows attack has averaged just shy of 100 points per game this season, led by perhaps the biggest surprise of the competition - Tex Walker, who is leading the Coleman Medal.
99 points per game is an astronomical difference to the league's lowest-scoring team in 2020, the Crows averaged just 48.6 ppg (translating to 60 ppg in full game length) over last years campaign. Obviously, the scoring has increased league-wide, the quarters are longer and the Crows have shown improvement but the early-season scoring for Adelaide is an anomaly I don't expect to hold much longer. This week the Crows have injury clouds over a host of players, and this season they have benefited in facing a Geelong side that didn't turn up, the Suns at home & the lowly Kangaroos to accumulate their big totals and wins.
The Crows face a side ready to bring them back to earth in the scoring department. Despite not being a league force, Fremantle was the 3rd lowest-scoring team in 2020 and the 4th toughest team to score against. New coach Longmuir has it instilled in the players to defend first, and they don't yet have the cattle to attack with dare or efficiency. This season Freo have played in games unaffected by weather totalling 143 and 138 in the first two rounds. In Round 3 they battled one of the leagues most aggressive teams (Carlton) on the leagues quickest deck - and that one still fell below this number.
This total points line of 175.5 is set too high based upon a short and unsustainable sample size, there could be a drizzle in Adelaide come Sunday - which will only enhance the edge on this angle.
Unders on 175.5 points.
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