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Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for Round 7

2021-04-29T17:16+10:00

A new weekend of footy ahead and there are nine intriguing matches for us to assess.

There are a few genuine 50-50s in Round 7 and a couple of 'danger' games for some clubs in desperate need of a victory.

Who will win and why?

Let's find out below:

Western Bulldogs v Richmond

Friday night - MCG

It’s a battle of contrasting styles when the table-topping Western Bulldogs take on reigning premiers Richmond in a tantalising Friday night clash.

The Bulldogs under coach Luke Beveridge play a high possession game that is underpinned by handball chains and direct ball use – the Dogs are ranked No.1 in the competition for handballs, disposals and clearances.

Their system will be challenged against the tried and tested manic pressure of the Tigers, a distinctive style that has delivered the club three premierships in four years.

The unbeaten Dogs are flying with six wins from as many starts playing a dazzling, high-scoring brand of football with their star-studded midfield dictating proceedings.

Injuries to Josh Dunkley (shoulder) and Tim English (concussion) put a slight dampener on last week’s win over GWS, but their strength in depth means they can cover the loss of the sidelined pair.

Richmond is coming off a loss to Melbourne that would have dented the pride of the defending premiers with superstar Dustin Martin (concussion) and Kane Lambert (calf) both picking up injuries.

Martin will miss the blockbuster against the Dogs and joins Lambert, Dion Prestia (calf) and Nick Vlastiun (knee) on the sidelines.

Damien Hardwick’s all-conquering side sit 3-3 and would be smarting after the defeat to the Demons where they were basically beaten at their own game.

It’s a statement game for the Dogs in what promises to be a fascinating match.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 12 points.

Alex Zaia


Collingwood v Gold Coast

Saturday - MCG

The pressure is on at Collingwood following their loss on ANZAC Day to Essendon and they now face a hugely important Round 7 match against Gold Coast after their fifth defeat of the season.

The Magpies were gallant last week but ultimately well beaten in the end by the Bombers, who were better for most of the game.

Gold Coast were impressive on Saturday and had arguably their best win of the season against the Swans, highlighting their potential when it all clicks.

All eyes will be on Darcy Moore and where he plays – if he does go back to defence then a tantalising match up against Ben King awaits.

Attention will be on the home of football on Saturday afternoon in a game the Pies simply have to win to keep their rapidly dwindling finals hopes alive.

While Stuart Dew will be eyeing this game as another chance for his Suns to progress on the biggest stage of all, the fallout for the Pies and Nathan Buckley is much more immense.

Tip: Collingwood by 4 points.

Laurence Rosen


Adelaide v GWS

Saturday - Adelaide Oval

Adelaide let it slip against Hawthorn last weekend.

The Crows led by as much as 32 points in the third quarter before letting everything they had worked so hard for earlier in the contest fall apart late.

It was a disappointing result but it did come with a major positive in the form of pick 2 Riley Thilthorpe who bagged five goals on debut.

While Matthew Nicks would have loved to come away from Launceston with four points, there was enough to like and work with from the performance.

He will get to put those ideas into action at home against the Giants who come to town following their fair showing against the Western Bulldogs in Round 6.

Leon Cameron had a clear plan in place to slow play and keep the ball off the Bulldogs and it worked for three quarters before the youthful side was put away by the pre-round ladder leaders.

The recent form of both sides makes this a very tricky affair which is reflected by the odds. So we look to any changes in personnel to help guide us and Nick Haynes being out with a hamstring is enough to lean the way of the Crows given his influence on this Giants side.

The fact the Crows have won five of their past six at the Adelaide Oval against GWS has also swayed us their way in what promises to be a compelling and close encounter.

Tip: Crows by 7 points.

Andrew Slevison


St Kilda v Hawthorn

Saturday - Marvel Stadium

This is surely St Kilda’s last chance to make anything of their 2021 season.

A win against Hawthorn would take them to 3-4 and breathe some life into a season that is currently on life support.

The Saints’ best has been proven to be better than the Hawks’ best this season, but their worst has been much worse.

Hawthorn come off a gutsy three-point win against Adelaide while St Kilda are attempting to bounce back from their third blowout loss of the season after Port Adelaide thrashed them by 54 points.

Both sides could have pivotal ins this week with Paddy Ryder already a confirmed inclusion and Jack Gunston a chance to return.

Ryder looms as a key to St Kilda’s success as proven last year when he and Rowan Marshall formed one of the most formidable ruck combinations in the AFL.

Not only does Ryder provide first use at the stoppage but his addition also allows Marshall to be a genuine threat up forward.

Gunston could prove just as important for the Hawks if he returns from a back injury for his first game since his best and fairest winning year. He will provide some much-needed class in front of the ball.

It’s tempting to pick Hawthorn here, but I’m going to give the Saints one last chance to prove that they’re better than what they’ve shown thus far in 2021.

They have just enough class and x-factor going forward to kick a winning score.

Tip: St Kilda by 21 points.

Lachlan Geleit


Brisbane v Port Adelaide

Saturday night - Gabba

Brisbane is missing Lachie Neale. Port Adelaide is missing Travis Boak. This clash between contenders is going to have to be won without each team’s star on-baller.

Both sides are in good form, with the Power dispatching St Kilda last week, while the Lions fought out a win against Carlton away from home.

Port is solid down back and has all the tools required to cover Eric Hipwood, Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron, while the same could be said of the Lions up the other end with Charlie Dixon, Mitch Georgiades and Robbie Gray.

The Lions won this encounter last year at the Gabba back in Round 5, though it’s hard to read too much into early-2020 form-lines given everything that was going on.

Jarrod Berry remains unavailable for this game on top of the absence of Neale, putting a lot of pressure on Dayne Zorko, Mitch Robinson, Hugh McCluggage and Jarryd Lyons.

As for the Power, they will need Karl Amon and Dan Houston to continue their strong vein of form, while the likes of Willem Drew and Connor Rozee will get greater opportunities on-ball.

Expect a tight contest between two of last year’s preliminary finalists, but the Power are white-hot and have greater depth to cover their losses.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 10 points.

Nic Negrepontis


Sydney v Geelong

Saturday night - SCG

Saturday night footy in Sydney has the Swans hosting the Cats with the two teams entering the SCG clash on either side of the form ledger.

John Longmire’s Sydney side was brushed aside by Gold Coast to the tune of 40 points as they slumped to a second straight defeat after a red-hot beginning.

Geelong, on the other hand, absolutely trounced West Coast by 97 points to stamp their arrival on the season following a slow start, even if they had been winning.

The Cats kicked a massive 21 goals with prized recruit Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins combining for six majors (three each) while Mitch Duncan (four) and former Swan Gary Rohan (three) helped form an extremely dangerous attack.

After putting one of the competition’s genuine contenders to the sword, it would take a brave person to tip against the Cats, especially considering they are playing at a ground that holds no fears after two straight wins.

The Cats have also won four on the trot against the Swans and after such a superb performance will go in with plenty of confidence.

Longmire will have dished out some stern words to his players on the back of the Suns loss, so expect them to come out firing, but Chris Scott’s Cats will be good enough to bank a fifth win of the season.

Tip: Geelong by 16 points.

Andrew Slevison


North Melbourne v Melbourne

Sunday - Blundstone Arena

The rampaging Demons enter Sunday’s clash looking to keep their undefeated streak intact, while the bottom-placed Kangaroos are coming off an interrupted build-up having spent some time in isolation after being in Perth for their loss to the Dockers last Saturday night.

The Demons are playing scintillating football, passing their biggest test of the season by beating Richmond at the MCG in Round 6.

And now Ben Brown will make his Melbourne debut against the Kangaroos, adding to the drama.

North Melbourne was unlucky last week. As the Roos landed in Perth, the city was being put into a three-day lockdown, forcing them into stricter living conditions in Melbourne. On the field, they were comfortably beaten by the Dockers, but historically have had a good record against the Demons – beating them 17 times in a row between 2006 and 2018.

In saying that, Melbourne will be the clear favourite for this one and should comfortably record its seventh straight victory to start the season.

Tip: Melbourne by 40 points.

Laurence Rosen


Essendon v Carlton

Sunday - MCG

Essendon versus Carlton on the MCG and there is a lot at stake in this one.

A loss for the Blues would see them sitting at 2-4, while the Bombers could jump into top eight calculations with a win.

The potential loss of Aaron Francis will give the Dons a bit of a headache, given Carlton has Harry McKay, Levi Casboult and Mitch McGovern to deal with. McKay in particular is fresh off kicking six on Harris Andrews and has the potential to rip this game apart.

Essendon’s pressure around the ball will worry a Blues side that already ranks among the top teams in conceding scores from turnovers.

Carlton won the encounter in 2020 by a single point, with a Jacob Townsend shot on the siren falling short by the length of Liam Jones’ forehead.

Expect another tight game on the MCG, but on exposed form the Bombers can move the ball with a surety that Carlton will struggle to contain. The Blues also don’t have a logical matchup for Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, who kicked five last weekend.

For Carlton to win, they need to dominate around the ball with Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh and Ed Curnow winning the clearances and their key forwards kicking a winning score.

Both teams have had big wins and big losses so far this year and this game could genuinely go either way. The Dons seem easier to trust at this stage.

Tip: Essendon by 6 points.

Nic Negrepontis


West Coast v Fremantle

Sunday - Optus Stadium

Fremantle sit above West Coast going into Sunday’s Western Derby clash at Optus Stadium.

The Dockers are on a roll after comfortably beating lowly North Melbourne by 51 points to notch a third straight win for the first time since Round 13, 2019.

It’s four wins in five games for Justin Longmuir’s improving side who jumped into sixth spot with their stalwarts and emerging young guns playing some excellent footy.

The ageless David Mundy is averaging 25 touches in his 17th season, captain Nat Fyfe is leading by example – it’s just his wayward goalkicking that needs tidying up – while Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw continue to shine as part of the club’s exciting young midfield core.

But beware the wounded animal.

Eagles coach Adam Simpson was scathing in his assessment of his side's 97-point hiding to Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, labelling the performance “embarrassing” and “weak”.

It was West Coast’s equal-biggest loss since 2009 and the worst loss in the Simpson era.

A groin injury to star defender Jeremy McGovern capped off a dirty afternoon for the Eagles as they shipped 19 goals after quarter-time.

The record defeat saw the Eagles drop to 10th on the ladder and their percentage take a massive hit. With injuries mounting, West Coast’s depth is being severely tested.

The Dockers won’t get a better opportunity to snap the Eagles’ Derby dominance. Freo haven’t beaten their rivals since 2015 - could this be the year?

Tip: Fremantle by 15 points.

Alex Zaia


Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast GWS Giants Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney Swans West Coast Eagles Western Bulldogs

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