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Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for Round 8

2021-05-06T16:43+10:00

Round 8 is upon us and as always there are a number of fascinating contests to dissect.

The Grand Final rematch commences proceedings, the ladder leaders host the fourth-placed side and the Showdown takes place on another tricky weekend of tipping.

Check out our predictions below:

Richmond v Geelong

Friday night - MCG

The 2020 Grand Final rematch kicks us off in Round 8 and again it promises to be an intriguing battle.

After going down to the Demons, the Tigers last week regained their mojo by dismantling the Bulldogs in the second half to return emphatically to the winners’ list.

The Cats went the other way, failing late against the Swans (due to some misfortune) having handed the Eagles the mother of all hidings the week before.

We will likely see two contrasting styles at the MCG with Richmond’s contained chaos and Geelong’s control with a little bit of chaos set to come together.

In recent times we’ve witnessed Damien Hardwick’s disorderly system come to the fore against Chris Scott’s patient approach (which is starting to become more frantic), particularly in big finals, which reads well for the reigning champs.

Captain Trent Cotchin and gun defender Dylan Grimes go out of the team but Dustin Martin and Nick Vlastuin are back on board, which is more than handy for the Tigers.

For Geelong, classy off-season recruit Shaun Higgins is expected to return after recovering from hand and hamstring issues with Gryan Miers (fractured leg) going out.

While the Cats will be out to exact revenge for October, the Tigers will be looking to build on their return to form, and if anywhere near their best should be good enough to make it four in a row against the blue and white hoops.

Tip: Richmond by 15 points.

Andrew Slevison


GWS v Essendon

Saturday - Giants Stadium

This game suddenly has a bit more riding on it for the Giants who have ignited their finals hopes over the past month.

GWS has won three of their past four, and a victory over Essendon would take them to an even 4-4 record and with the platform to make a tilt for the top eight.

At the start of the year, a potential finals outfit would have expected to earn an easy win over a young and inexperienced Essendon, but Ben Rutten’s side has proven in recent weeks that they’re much improved on last season.

GWS will be looking to expose the Bombers at the contest, with rookie ruckman Nick Bryan facing veteran big man Shane Mumford in a contest that will favour Leon Cameron’s side.

If Mumford gets on top of the duel, he could provide silver service to their in-form contested ball brigade of Callan Ward, Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper.

It looms as a clash of styles, with the Giants preferring a low-scoring contested game while the Dons will want to go quickly and put a big score on GWS’ often dour defence.

We still don’t know exactly what we’re going to get from these two teams, but the Giants should be a little too strong at home and have enough A-grade talent to get the better of the Dons’ kids.

Tip: GWS by 13 points.

Lachlan Geleit


Gold Coast v St Kilda

Saturday - Metricon Stadium

Gold Coast takes strong form into this clash with St Kilda and will be looking for their third win in a row.

The Saints also found some touch against Hawthorn last week, with a few struggling players in Brad Hill and Zak Jones dominating.

This is an incredibly important game in the context of the season for both clubs, with both teams currently four points out of the eight.

St Kilda has a strong record against Gold Coast, winning their last five, though last year’s match was decided by four points.

The Saints should dominate the ruck, with Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall set to give them first use. If they can turn that into a midfield advantage they should put Gold Coast’s backline under a lot of pressure.

It will be tough for the Suns to play the high possession and uncontested style they utilised against Collingwood last week given the slippery conditions at Metricon Stadium.

Given their recent record against the Suns and the dominance they’ll have in the ruck, it’s hard to tip against St Kilda in this one.

Tip: St Kilda by 19 points.

Nic Negrepontis


North Melbourne v Collingwood

Saturday - Marvel Stadium

In one of the most highly anticipated matches of the round, North Melbourne will be looking for a first win of the seaosb against a Collingwood side under siege and badly in need of a victory.

The Roos were impressive in the first half against ladder-leading Melbourne in Hobart last weekend, holding a surprising 19-point lead at half-time before the Dees mounted a comeback to eventually run out winners.

As for Collingwood, they were hugely disappointing in their loss to Gold Coast last Saturday, with that result only piling more pressure on Nathan Buckley and the club in general.

If they thought the pressure was bad this week, it will only intensify if they lose to a North Melbourne side that hasn’t tasted victory since August 1 last year.

Brodie Grundy is quietly building into the season but will face stiff opposition against Todd Goldstein at Marvel Stadium on Saturday. Just how effective the two respective ruckmen are could go a long way to deciding how the game plays out.

Collingwood is slight favourites for this one, but it’s anyone’s match as the two lowest placed sides in the competition face off against each other.

Tip: Collingwood by 7 points.

Laurence Rosen


Melbourne v Sydney

Saturday night - MCG

Can Sydney stop Melbourne’s undefeated start to 2021?

The Demons made it seven straight wins to start the campaign with a hard-fought victory over North Melbourne in what is now their best start to a season since 1965.

Melbourne is also flying off the field with superstar midfielder Christian Petracca signing a seven-year contract extension that will effectively keep him at the club for the rest of his career.

Petracca, 25, follows teammates Max Gawn (2025), Christian Salem (2026), Clayton Oliver (2023) and Jake Lever (2024) in re-signing with the Demons.

After two consecutive losses, the Swans got back on track with a heart-stopping win over Geelong that went right down to the wire.

Without Lance Franklin, Sam Reid and Logan McDonald, young forward Hayden McLean stood up with a career-high four goals.

Sydney’s fifth win of the season has them nestled in fourth spot with five clubs sitting one game back.

The Swans boast an impressive record against Melbourne at the MCG, winning their previous six meetings by an average margin of 32 points.

Melbourne would be wary of the Swans who have catapulted into finals contention thanks to their mix of exciting youngsters and seasoned veterans.

It promises to be a cracker.

Tip: Melbourne by 5 points.

Alex Zaia


Port Adelaide v Adelaide

Saturday night - Adelaide Oval

Showdown 49 throws up an intriguing battle between Port Adelaide and Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday night.

Both the Power and the Crows enter this local derby in substandard form following heavy defeats last weekend, giving this a bit of extra spice as they both look to bounce back.

Port was beaten by 49 points by the Lions in Brisbane while the Crows were brushed aside at home by GWS to the tune of 67 points. In poor reading for the South Australian sides, they combined for just nine goals and kicked the two lowest scores of the round.

The neutrals will be hoping both teams are back in scoring touch otherwise this promises to be a very dour affair.

The Power drew level at 24 wins apiece way back in Round 2 last year and have now won the last two Showdowns by an average of 66 points, scoring over 100 on both occasions.

Ken Hinkley’s side have played well at home this year, winning all three games including two 54-point triumphs, whereas Matthew Nicks’ Crows started well with two home victories but have dropped their last two.

On the personnel front, Travis Boak (quad) and Ryan Burton (ribs) have both been cleared to play for Port while the Crows are awaiting clearance for skipper Rory Sloane (eye) to return.

At their best, the Power win this quite comfortably but we know 2021 hasn’t always gone to plan for hot favourites.

However, the Power – sans prison bars – should see this one out, but not before withstanding a strong early challenge from the Crows.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 32 points.

Andrew Slevison


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Hawthorn v West Coast

Sunday - MCG

Hawthorn and West Coast enter Sunday’s match coming off contrasting Round 7 results.

The Hawks came crashing down to earth in their 69-point thrashing to St Kilda, the club’s fifth loss in seven games.

Hawthorn were kept scoreless in a first quarter for the first time since 2017 as the Saints did as they pleased under minimal pressure.

Trailing 9-22 in inside 50s and 76-130 in disposals at quarter-time, the loss of experienced trio Jaeger O'Meara, Chad Wingard and Shaun Burgoyne was heavily felt.

The Eagles atoned for their 97-point loss to Geelong by demolishing rivals Fremantle in the Western Derby.

Played inside an empty Optus Stadium, West Coast’s 59-point victory was their 11th straight triumph over the Dockers.

While the win was commendable given their lengthy injury list, it’s still hard to get a read on where the Eagles are at given they are yet to win outside of Perth this season.

The upcoming meeting with the lowly Hawks provides Adam Simpson’s side with a great opportunity to notch their first interstate victory of the campaign.

West Coast’s three-pronged attack of Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Oscar Allen will be hard to stop if the supply is there.

Tip: West Coast by 20 points.

Alex Zaia


Western Bulldogs v Carlton

Sunday - Marvel Stadium

Carlton and the Western Bulldogs meet on Sunday in an interesting clash.

The Blues had one of their best wins of 2020 over the Dogs, beating them by 52 points. Eddie Betts kicked four, while Harry McKay kicked three.

McKay has a strong record on the Dogs, booting four on them early in 2019.

Now, he finds himself in the Coleman Medal race and comes up against a Bulldogs backline that has struggled in one-on-one contests.

The question will be whether Carlton can get the ball down there often enough and give him a chance.

The Bulldogs have been a dominant midfield so far this season and the Blues will need to break even in the middle to give themselves an opportunity.

The Dogs are also a high pressure team and will hurt Carlton on transition if they turn the ball over, which they tend to do going forward.

Expect a high scoring contest here. The Dogs will score on the Blues’ one-on-one heavy defence freely, but Carlton should similarly be able to go with them.

Based on what we have seen this season, Carlton will play well under the roof at Marvel Stadium, but will have a 20-minute lapse that sees the Bulldogs kick away.

For that reason, the sons of the West should be too strong.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 20 points.

Nic Negrepontis


Brisbane v Fremantle

Sunday - Gabba

Fremantle is licking their wounds after a Derby demolition at the hands of West Coast on Sunday afternoon and now face an intriguing match against Brisbane.

The Dockers were talked up in the lead up to the biggest home and away game in West Australian football, but in line with the recent history between the two sides were soundly beaten by the end of the day.

They’ll be looking for a swift bounce back against a Lions side who are building nicely into this season, with their best performance coming last Saturday against Port Adelaide.

Charlie Cameron looks as one of the key players heading into this one, having rediscovered some of his best form in the past fortnight. He kicked four goals last week from eight shots last week and looks in ominous touch.

This game was originally scheduled for Optus Stadium before the AFL opted to move to the game to the Gabba as a result of Perth's current COVID situation.

The shifting of the game makes it an even more arduous task for the Dockers, who now face several weeks on the road.

Fremantle coach Justin Longmuir said their Derby defeat was a reality check and all eyes will be on the side as they look to respond against one of the competition’s best outfits.

While for the Lions, Sunday’s game presents a timely opportunity to notch up a big win at home against a side that will still be smarting after their performance in Round 7.

Tip: Brisbane by 19 points.

Laurence Rosen


Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast GWS Giants Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney Swans West Coast Eagles Western Bulldogs

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