Round 21 is here and we're down to the pointy end of the home and away season.
All aspects of the top eight are still up for grabs and this weekend’s results could flip the ladder on its head.
See our tips for the weekend below:
Geelong v GWS
Friday - GMHBA Stadium
Only percentage stands between Geelong and a second minor premiership in three seasons.
Chris Scott’s men have lost only one match in the past three months, and they maintained their pace with a gritty 20-point win over North Melbourne last Saturday.
The Roos lost Ben Cunnington, Cam Zurhaar and Tarryn Thomas before the bounce, but they were no walkovers.
North Melbourne went into quarter time with a surprise lead, built on forward half intercepts, and in an impressive sign for a young team, maintained their full ground press throughout the day.
Pushed to the boundary, the Cats tightened up their ball use, hunkered down for a grind, and were able to score both when the ball went to ground and from set shots on tight angles.
That edge and execution will stand Geelong in good stead when they face Greater Western Sydney at GMBHA Stadium on Friday night.
The Giants experienced a frustrating Sunday night “hosting” Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, with injuries, lapses in concentration and tough midfield match-ups delivering a 27-point defeat.
The ‘Orange Tsunami’ core of Tim Taranto, Callan Ward, Tom Green and Hopper ceded field position to Port Adelaide’s fearsome onballers.
Leon Cameron’s charges went into their forward arc on 20 fewer occasions than the Power found their own, and they were well covered for scores from stoppages.
Regardless, that core has the maturity to challenge the Cats’ rotation and protect both territory and the scoreboard at contests around the ground.
A place in an elimination final is still within reach if the Giants can complement their contested base and their improving connection between the lines with greater concentration throughout.
On this occasion, Geelong can be expected to cordon off their defensive half against a team still learning to express themselves, and convert clinically from the scoring opportunities that present.
Tip: Geelong by 17 points.
Nathan John
Carlton v Gold Coast
Saturday - Marvel Stadium
Carlton’s convincing 31-point win over St Kilda kept their finals hopes alive for another week.
The Blues were clinical in disposing of the Saints, kicking 18.4 from their 44 inside 50 entries, and were manic in applying defensive pressure, laying 79 tackles for the night.
To put that into context, Carlton laid 51 tackles in the first half against the Saints – they registered just 45 for the entire afternoon in their loss to North Melbourne in Round 19.
The sight of fit-again Charlie Curnow playing alongside Coleman Medal leader Harry McKay would have delighted Blues fans, with the latter kicking five goals to take his season tally to 57.
Sam Walsh also starred with 26 disposals and three goals.
As for the Suns, they were dismantled by Melbourne to the tune of 98 points – their heaviest loss of the season.
In their past six quarters, Gold Coast have conceded a negative points differential of 174 points, which has heaped pressure on coach Stuart Dew.
Dew’s side lost the inside 50 count (27-71), laid just six tackles inside their attacking arc and were dominated in clearances.
If Carlton can bring that same attitude and commitment to defend as a team, they’re a chance to win their remaining three games of the home and away season.
Tip: Carlton by 18 points.
Alex Zaia
Richmond v North Melbourne
Saturday - MCG
Richmond enters this weekend’s clash with their finals hopes hanging by a thread.
A run of four consecutive finals series would almost certainly come to an end with a loss this weekend, and the Kangaroos will be hoping to land the final blow.
Hoping for and inflicting that blow are two different things though, and you wouldn’t expect this Richmond outfit to go down without a fight.
While the Tigers are still in the finals race and the Roos are wooden spoon favourites, it’s actually David Noble’s side which comes into the clash in better form.
They’ve won two of their last four, while Richmond’s only been able to muster one win in that same timeframe.
A key reason behind the slump has been their faltering defence, and the potential return of star half-back Nick Vlaustin may just remedy that issue.
North Melbourne will also be bolstered by a returning star as emerging mid/forward Tarryn Thomas will be available for selection following a delayed concussion.
Opposition midfielders have feasted on Richmond in recent weeks, and they’ll be breathing a sigh of relief that Ben Cunnington will be unavailable as he could have dictated terms from the contest.
With Cunnington out, and everything to play for from a Tigers’ perspective, the reigning champions should get the job done here and keep their September hopes alive.
Tip: Richmond by 11 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Adelaide v Port Adelaide
Saturday - Adelaide Oval
Showdown 50 has arrived some 24 years after the first Adelaide versus Port Adelaide clash took place.
The head-to-head record fell in the favour of the Power when they won by 49 points in Round 8 to edge ahead 25-24. It was the third straight win by Ken Hinkley’s men who have enjoyed some recent dominance over the Crows with an average winning margin of 60.3 points.
Port have strung together a trio of victories following their Round 17 loss to Melbourne, giving renewed hope to a season that has had its challenges in that they’ve failed major tests against fellow top four sides.
In the Crows camp, things fell away against the Western Bulldogs last weekend following the Round 19 win over Hawthorn. Matthew Nicks’ outfit were competitive at times, but overall were not in the same class as the Bulldogs.
That’s likely to be the case in this one against the Power, who are clearly a better side and will be looking to bank another win on their way to September.
The Crows will need to play above themselves to cause an upset, which is entirely possible, but appears unlikely given what’s at stake for the Power.
Port still has a home final on the agenda and should tick this off with minimal fuss to further cement their standing in the top quartet of teams.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 24 points.
Andrew Slevison
St Kilda v Sydney
Saturday - Marvel Stadium
St Kilda’s finals hopes hang by a thread after losing to Carlton last Friday night and now faces a tough must-win game against Sydney at Marvel Stadium this weekend.
The Swans took on Essendon in a shootout in Round 20 and came out victorious as they continue to build an impressive resume heading into the finals.
While they’re unlikely to return home until the end of the season due to the COVID situation in NSW, they haven’t let that affect their form, looking commanding as the roadblocks continue to pile up on their premiership push.
The Saints are a game and a half outside of the eight and cannot afford another slip up here. They will have to be at their very best to win.
This is of course a rematch of their thrilling clash earlier in the season, which saw St Kilda blow a massive opportunity at the SCG. In a game that went right down to the wire, several costly misses saw Sydney win a close one by nine points.
Sydney has to be favourites to make it two from two against the Saints, while it’s essentially an elimination final for Brett Ratten’s side who would’ve held loftier ambitions going into this season.
Tip: Sydney by 19 points.
Laurence Rosen
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Hawthorn v Collingwood
Sunday - University of Tasmania Stadium
Hawthorn and Collingwood are coming off morale-boosting wins ahead of Sunday’s game at the MCG.
The Hawks put a turbulent week behind them, shocking top four aspirant Brisbane by 12 points in Launceston to notch just their fifth win of the season.
It was revealed that Alastair Clarkson will depart Hawthorn at the end of the season – one year earlier than initially planned – with rookie coach and club great Sam Mitchell to take the reins from 2022.
Four-time premiership coach Clarkson provided another timely reminder of his astute tactical prowess in helping the Hawks take down the finals-bound Lions.
Like Hawthorn, Collingwood went along way to avoiding the wooden spoon with an impressive 45-point win over top eight outfit West Coast.
It was as a good as the Magpies have played all season with quicker ball movement a clear directive under interim coach Robert Harvey.
Collingwood played the game on their terms recording 108 more disposals and taking 167 marks – the ninth most in a single game in AFL history – and also won the tackle count by seven.
It’s the first time the two Victorian powerhouse clubs will lock horns in 2021. The Magpies held the Hawks to just three goals in a 32-point win in their most recent meeting last year.
Collingwood to get home in what should be a tight contest.
Tip: Collingwood by 7 points.
Alex Zaia
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Sunday - Marvel Stadium
Essendon’s hopes of playing finals potentially go through the top-of-the-table Western Bulldogs, but this challenge goes beyond just that for the Bombers.
The Dogs have owned the Dons since 2015, winning their last six encounters by: 42, 104, 21, 30, 40 and 87 points – an average margin of 54 points.
This includes the Bulldogs kicking 21 goals in a row in Round 21 of 2019 in one of the more incredible displays of football dominance in recent memory.
A win for Essendon could realistically see them finish the round in the top eight, given Fremantle and GWS have tough matchups.
The Bombers have the firepower to match the Bulldogs in the midfield, but they lack the forward line presence to take advantage of the Dogs’ injuries in defence.
The Bulldogs, like Sydney in Round 20, will utilise their spread from stoppage and attack from half back to open Essendon up.
The Bombers will need to be more defensively sound this weekend to stand any chance.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 28 points.
Nic Negrepontis
Fremantle v Brisbane
Sunday - Optus Stadium
A lot is at stake when Fremantle and Brisbane meet at Optus Stadium, with both clubs precariously placed in the top eight.
The Dockers are coming in with momentum having knocked off Richmond last week, but a win here could keep the wolves outside the eight at bay.
The Lions meanwhile were a late-comeback away from being belted by Hawthorn, finding themselves 50 points down at one stage.
They struggled against Gold Coast the week before, turning on the jets and kicking 13 second-half goals to get over the line and lost to Richmond and St Kilda before that.
Brisbane can all but forget about a top four finish if they lose this one and they will likely find themselves two wins behind Sydney in fifth.
The Lions have a strong recent record against Fremantle, winning four of their last five encounters. However, only one of those was in Perth.
The Freo midfield stood up in the absence of Nathan Fyfe, but will have to continue to carry the load without him.
It’s hard to know whether Brisbane can be trusted. They have looked excellent in quarters, but have struggled to perform consistently across the last month.
Fremantle meanwhile have been inconsistent themselves, but dug deep against Richmond, despite more inaccurate goal kicking.
Given the home ground advantage and last week’s momentum building win, we’re tipping the Dockers.
Tip: Fremantle by 9 points.
Nic Negrepontis
West Coast v Melbourne
Monday - Optus Stadium
The final game of Round 21 sees the Eagles take on Melbourne in a game which promises plenty, at least on paper.
Adam Simpson’s side once again turned their toes up in a game away from Western Australia, losing heavily to Collingwood last week.
These are testing times for the Eagles, who are coming under increasing pressure after a season which has underwhelmed.
But heading into the round, they’re still in seventh place and will fancy themselves against a Dees side coming off a crushing win over Gold Coast.
The Nic Naitanui versus Max Gawn battle looms large and has blockbuster match-up written all over it.
Melbourne is clearly still favourites here, despite the game being played in Perth. The serious part of the season is still come and this isn’t one the Demons will want to drop.
Tip: Melbourne by 9 points.
Laurence Rosen
