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How often do top 10 picks turn into All-Australian calibre players?

2021-09-30T14:38+10:00

When using a top 10 pick in the draft, the aim is obviously to bring in a player who will one day be a key part of the club and hopefully be an All-Australian level performer.

But just how often does a top 10 pick turn into an All-Australian calibre player? It’s probably not as often as you think.

Looking at a data sample from 2005 to 2015 - because players from 2016-2020 haven’t yet had enough time to make their mark - it shows there are no guarantees when receiving a top draft pick.

This is important to note in the trade period in particular, with top 10 picks often thrown around for established stars.

Of the 110 players taken in the top 10 in that time period, 31 have worn All-Australian blazers – a 28 per cent strike rate.

And of those 31, a combined 10 have come from either the 2005 or 2012 drafts.

Most years you have closer to a 20 per cent chance of landing an All-Australian calibre player in the top 10, but 2005 and 2012 both had strike rates of 50 per cent.

Quality players often go their careers without donning a blazer. In this same sample size, you would have been happy drafting the likes of Bryce Gibbs, Matthew Kreuzer, Ben McEvoy, Stephen Hill, Hamish Hartlett, Jack Ziebell, Phil Davis, Ben Cunnington, Dion Prestia and so on, regardless of whether they ever made the AA side or not.

This specific sample size also ignores those taken in the next bracket of the draft who went on to make the All-Australian side and isn’t necessarily reflective of the overall draft quality.

In the 2011 draft for instance, All-Australians in Toby Greene, Sam Docherty, Taylor Adams, Tom Mitchell, Elliot Yeo, Lachie Neale and Rory Laird were selected outside the top 10.

A hefty value is attached to owning a selection inside the first 10.

Since 2018, players like Steven May, Lachie Neale, Jesse Hogan, Brad Hill and Adam Saad have been involved in trades centred around a top 10 pick.

And yet the data shows you have a 28 per cent chance of turning that draftee into an All-Australian.

It will be interesting to see whether clubs start demanding more in trades for this reason or whether it’s just the nature of the process.

See the year by year data below

2005

  1. Marc Murphy (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  2. Dale Thomas (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  3. Xavier Ellis
  4. Josh Kennedy (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  5. Scott Pendlebury (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  6. Beau Dowler
  7. Paddy Ryder (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  8. Jarrad Oakleigh-Nicholls
  9. Mitch Clark
  10. Marcus Drum
    5/10

2006

  1. Bryce Gibbs
  2. Scott Gumbleton
  3. Lachlan Hansen
  4. Matthew Leuenberger
  5. Travis Boak (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  6. Mitch Thorp
  7. Joel Selwood (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  8. Ben Reid (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  9. David Armitage
  10. Nathan Brown
    3/10

2007

  1. Matthew Kreuzer
  2. Trent Cotchin (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  3. Chris Masten
  4. Cale Morton
  5. Jarrad Grant
  6. David Myers
  7. Rhys Palmer
  8. Lachie Henderson
  9. Ben McEvoy
  10. Patrick Dangerfield (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
    2/10

2008

  1. Jack Watts
  2. Nic Naitanui (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  3. Stephen Hill
  4. Hamish Hartlett
  5. Michael Hurley (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  6. Chris Yarran
  7. Daniel Rich (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  8. Ty Vickery
  9. Jack Ziebell
  10. Phil Davis
    3/10

2009

  1. Tom Scully
  2. Jack Trengove
  3. Dustin Martin (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  4. Anthony Morabito
  5. Ben Cunnington
  6. Gary Rohan
  7. Brad Sheppard (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  8. John Butcher
  9. Andrew Moore
  10. Jake Melksham
    2/10

2010

  1. David Swallow
  2. Harley Bennell
  3. Sam Day
  4. Andrew Gaff (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  5. Jared Polec
  6. Reece Conca
  7. Josh Caddy
  8. Dyson Heppell (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  9. Dion Prestia
  10. Daniel Gorringe
    2/10

2011

  1. Jon Patton
  2. Stephen Coniglio
  3. Dom Tyson
  4. Will Hoskin-Elliott
  5. Matt Buntine
  6. Chad Wingard (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  7. Nick Haynes (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  8. Billy Longer
  9. Adam Tomlinson
  10. Liam Sumner
    2/10

2012

  1. Lachie Whitfield (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  2. Jonathan O’Rourke
  3. Lachie Plowman
  4. Jimmy Toumpas
  5. Jake Stringer (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  6. Jack Macrae (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  7. Ollie Wines (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  8. Sam Mayes
  9. Nick Vlastuin
  10. Joe Daniher (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
    5/10

2013

  1. Tom Boyd
  2. Josh Kelly (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  3. Jack Billings
  4. Marcus Bontempelli (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  5. Kade Kolodjashnij
  6. Matthew Scharenberg
  7. James Aish
  8. Luke McDonald
  9. Christian Salem
  10. Nathan Freeman
    2/10

2014

  1. Paddy McCartin
  2. Christian Petracca (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  3. Angus Brayshaw
  4. Jarrod Pickett
  5. Jordan De Goey
  6. Caleb Marchbank
  7. Paul Ahern
  8. Peter Wright
  9. Darcy Moore (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  10. Nakia Cockatoo
    2/10

2015

  1. Jacob Weitering
  2. Josh Schache
  3. Callum Mills
  4. Clayton Oliver (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  5. Darcy Parish (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
  6. Aaron Francis
  7. Jacob Hopper
  8. Callum Ah Chee
  9. Sam Weideman
  10. Harry McKay (ALL-AUSTRALIAN)
    3/10

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