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Probabeel peaking ahead of Cox Plate

2021-10-20T14:21+11:00

At 31, trainer Jamie Richards makes most people seem like under-achievers.

The Matamata horseman has 47 Group One wins to his name and will send out a live chance in the A$5 million Gr.1 Cox Plate (2040m) on Saturday for the third year in succession.

Four-time Group One winner Probabeel (NZ) (Savabeel) will represent Richards for the second year in a row and the mare should get a much better surface than the Soft7 that thwarted her 12 months ago, when seventh.

“It is incredibly difficult to have a runner in a major like the Cox Plate for the third year in a row,” Richards said.

“We are just lucky we have David (Ellis, Te Akau principal) buying the horses and then syndicating them and then we have people like Brendan and Jo Lindsay (of Cambridge Stud) who send them to us to train.

“It is a big stable and a big process, it doesn’t just happen overnight, a lot of planning and effort goes into it. We are really proud that we have produced Te Akau Shark and Probabeel and hopefully Probabeel can run really well on the weekend.

“I followed the Cox Plate closely growing up and it is one of the pin-up races in Australasia.

“Te Akau Shark ran brilliantly when he ran third in 2019 and if the rain hadn’t arrived last year, I think Probabeel would have run a lot closer. We just have to hope we don’t get the rain and we can be running on a nice dry track on Saturday.

“It was pretty deflating when the rain came in both last year’s Cox Plate and again in the All-Star Mile for Probabeel as so much thought and effort and planning had gone into it from the whole team, only to have it undone by nature.”

There is a quiet sense of confidence in the Probabeel camp, with a feeling the mare is peaking for the race, albeit fingers are crossed that the showers forecast for Friday and Saturday don’t amount to much.

A last start winner of the Gr.1 Might And Power (2000m), downing subsequent Gr.1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) runner-up Nonconformist (Rebel Raider), Probabeel is rated a $16 chance, with the market headed by Zaaki (Leroidesanimaux) ($2.70), who finished nearly two-lengths behind Probabeel in third last start.

“She is going to have to put in a career best performance to be competitive on Saturday,” Richards said.

“Hopefully she is somewhere near that. I like the fact she is going to be fifth-up. She has had that hard, tough run over 2000m at Caulfield under her belt which should stand her in good stead.

“I don’t think we need to rush her too much early from barrier 7, we can just let her find a bit of a rhythm.

“Then we will hopefully get going into the race at the right time. I think there is going to be genuine tempo particularly from 1000m onwards and we want to be within reaching distance.”

Quaddie EDM@2x

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