AFL teams are beginning their pre-season training ahead of the 2022 season as lists take shape at the National Draft.
With clubland ramping things up, we thought it would be worth putting some bold predictions into the ether.
Whether it’s a prediction for a club, player or the league itself, here’s what we have come up with.
See our predictions below:
COVID will have a tangible impact on 2022 results
Obviously the last two seasons have been greatly impacted by COVID from a venue and crowd perspective, but what we haven’t seen is players testing positive and missing games.
This has become the reality in the NBA and NFL in a post-vaccine world, with players missing games or being unavailable for multiple weeks after contracting the virus.
Over summer, we have already seen a pair of Richmond players test positive, while AFLW cases have also bobbed up. It’s natural to assume this will continue into 2022 and while isolation rules have been relaxed in Victoria, testing positive will still see players sidelined and kept away from training.
There’s no doubt this will lead to players missing games during the season, testing the depth of teams across the league when coupled with the usual injury burden. AFL Football Operations Boss Brad Scott has already stated he feels COVID cases should be treated like any other injury in 2022.
How the AFL manages this, whether it disproportionately impacts teams in Victoria and New South Wales and whether it impacts finals will be factors to keep an eye on.
Nic Negrepontis
An unpredictable year on and off the field
There have been suggestions that COVID withdrawals will be the new hamstring niggles of 2022, and while that might hyperbole, look for a swag of late and sudden pre-game changes next season as clubs perform an incredible juggling act.
Look for the dad’s army at Richmond to give the premiership one last shake (refer Hawthorn 1991) before the fantastic team of the past five years really does become too old and too slow.
Scoring will be up early, like it is every season before defences work out how to shut things down, while one of the overarching storylines next season will be the search for a new AFL chief executive. Gillon McLachlan’s last day on the job might be when the Grand Final makes an emotional return to the MCG in front of 100,000 fans.
Ash Browne
The Tiger train to rumble back into the top four
Richmond was chasing a three-peat in 2021 and while the team huffed and puffed, in the end it didn’t quite go to plan.
Things were derailed by a mix of injury, exhaustion and just plain average form as they fell away in the second half of the season.
It is naturally the case that a dynasty team will drop off at some point and that could be the case for the Tigers.
However, the list is still in fairly good nick and if the Tigers can avoid the bulk injuries they suffered last season, then they can give things a shake in 2022.
It does depend on a few ‘ifs’ though.
If Dustin Martin can overcome his kidney injury. If Dion Prestia can stay on the park.
If Tom Lynch can fire. If Shane Edwards can gain continuity. If Ivan Soldo can ease the load on Toby Nankervis.
If Nick Vlastuin is not restricted again. If Nathan Broad and Noah Balta can return to their best. If Robbie Tarrant can hold down David Astbury’s key defensive post.
If the likes of Sydney Stack, Riley Collier-Dawkins and Rhyan Mansell can take the next step.
And perhaps even if Trent Cotchin can break the shackles of captaincy.
There’s a bit that needs to go right, but if they are afforded some luck on the injury front, then the Tigers can certainly challenge again while the window remains ajar.
If the above happens, then all aboard the Tiger train.
Andrew Slevison
Emerging Saint to announce himself as a star of the competition
Emerging St Kilda spearhead Max King clicked into gear in the second half of this year.
The young Saint found his range in front of the big sticks and started to dominant aerially, using his 202cm frame to tower over his opponents, taking the sixth most contested marks in the AFL.
King finished with a club-high 38 goals from 20 games in 2021 - and it could have been more had he converted more accurately. The forward has kicked 60.50 from 38 matches over his career.
With his goalkicking yips seemingly behind him, a 50-goal plus season and a Coleman Medal charge is within the realms of possibility for the 21-year-old.
Entering his third full season at Moorabbin, King is primed to announce himself as a star of the competition in 2022.
Alex Zaia
West Coast to accept their fate and commit to a rebuild
West Coast missed the eight for the first time since 2014 last year, and the signs aren’t pointing to a quick bounce back for Adam Simpson’s side.
While their top-end talent is still somewhat there, proven by the fact that they spent 19 weeks inside the top eight last season, age should finally catch up to them in 2022.
With key players Josh Kennedy, Shannon Hurn, Nic Naitanui, Luke Shuey, Jack Redden and Brad Sheppard now into their 30s and a raft of other stars not far off, the Eagles are an aging list that should only slide from here.
They haven’t taken near enough early picks in recent years to continually top up – a fair decision from a side that was competing for premierships – but another finals miss in 2022 should be the last dance for a few of their big names as the club moves in a new direction.
Despite having a significant home ground advantage, it’d surprise if the Eagles won more than 10 games and that’s probably what’s needed to help them kickstart a regeneration of their list.
Lachlan Geleit
If you thought Collingwood had hit rock bottom…
Collingwood fans haven’t had much to cheer about since the ‘dirty Pies’ staged a famous win against the odds, toppling the Eagles by a point in Perth in the 2020 elimination final. What ensued could only be described as a disaster.
The trade period fire sale of 2020 was enough to see footy boss Geoff Walsh announce his retirement and list boss Ned Guy shown the door.
In February 2021, then-president Eddie McGuire described a scathing internal report into systemic racism at the Pies as “a proud day”.
A week later Eddie stepped down. And finally, with a 4-9 record after Round 13, Nathan Buckley quit after 10 years as senior coach.
The Pies finished with six wins in 17th position — their lowest finish since the 18-team format and worst win-loss record since 2005.
But despite the doom and gloom, the Pies blooded a league-high nine debutants in 2021. And with Craig McRae’s appointment, plus the arrival of Justin Leppitsch and Brendon Bolton on a new-look coaching panel, it seems the winds of change have finally swept through the Holden Centre.
Add the arrival of the highly-vaunted Nick Daicos, and Pies fans could be excused for getting their hopes up in 2022… which is a recipe for disaster.
Don’t expect a sharp turnaround. History tells that young teams are prone to inconsistency and the Pies’ new wave will need to cop their medicine before making progress. Season 2022 might just be the first dose.
For all the reasons to be optimistic at Collingwood, the reality is this black and white project will take time. Lots of time.
Terence Lattanzio
The Blues will make the top eight
It’s always hard making bold predictions about the Carlton Football Club given what they’ve dished up in the past decade, however heading into the 2021 season, their list has rarely looked so good.
The Blues have so much upside with a plethora of young talent alongside some established stars, making them primed to take that next step in the 2022 season.
Carlton didn't mess around in the off-season, adding Adam Cerra, George Hewett and Lewis Young to their lineup which will no doubt improve the team's overall output.
Despite failing in his time as coach of the Brisbane Lions, the appointment of Michael Voss is a massive get for the club, as he won’t stand for mediocrity.
They have three genuine stars in their side - Jacob Weitering, Sam Walsh and Harry McKay - who will be dominating opposition sides for the next decade.
Momentum is a powerful thing in the AFL these days, we saw it with the Dogs in 2016, the Tigers in 2017, 2019 and 2020 and we saw it with the Dees in 2021.
Imagine the Blues supporters if the team strings together some early wins in the 2022 season.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
Two key Bombers will reinvent themselves in other positions
Essendon wasted no time in securing yet another midfielder with their first pick in the National Draft, nabbing Greater Western Victoria Rebels product Ben Hobbs.
While there’s no real immediate pressure on Hobbs to play early games next year – despite him looking a ready-made inside mid – what his arrival means is there’s even more pressure for spots in a midfield that is rapidly growing in depth.
Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish took charge in the midfield this year, with the likes of Jake Stringer, Kyle Langford, Jye Caldwell and Archie Perkins all expected to feature more through the middle next year.
The squeeze is on for midfield spots heading into 2022, so could the Bombers entertain new roles for both Andrew McGrath and Dylan Shiel?
McGrath started his Essendon career as a running half-back and the Bombers are still in need of that role being filled, even with Nick Hind.
As for Shiel, he was squeezed out of the midfield after his injury in Round 2 and struggled to make an impact when he returned late in the season.
More time in the forward line could be on the cards for the smooth-moving footballer in 2022.
Laurence Rosen
We'll see more variation in how teams play
The 2021 Grand Finalists were perhaps the two most tactically distinct teams over the season. Most sides roll up a spare behind the contest, but Melbourne broke with convention to hold their back six in place.
Despite the rubies and sapphires in the midfield, the Demons’ drought-breaking premiership was built on this tensile structure, as key backs Steven May and Jake Lever swallowed up entry after entry.
By contrast, the Bulldogs outgunned opponents with rapid-fire handballing, overlap run and high-risk, high-reward positioning, rather than working down the ground through stoppages, spoils and knock-ons.
They played a high line and defended stoutly, and produced both compact and electrifying football. The Dees ripped their fuselage out in the decider, but Luke Beveridge was rewarded for his creativity with the magnets.
Next season, rather than imitate the premiers and runners-up, more coaches will challenge their players to think outside the square with the ball and where they position themselves, and settle on a style that suits their respective squads.
Fremantle and Sydney are a step ahead on that front, Justin Longmuir and John Longmire having spent the past two seasons inculcating progressive, optimistic football in their talented teams.
Nathan John
Former Brownlow Medallists to reassert themselves as league’s best
Patrick Dangerfield and Nat Fyfe didn’t have the smoothest 2021 campaigns, but watch for them to bounce back next year and both finish in the top five of the Brownlow Medal.
2021 was all about the younger brigade, with Ollie Wines, Marcus Bontempelli and Christian Petracca suggesting they were ready to take over as the game’s best.
Dangerfield was suspended early in the year and suffered a hand injury in the back half of the season, struggling for consistency in between.
He finished with just six Brownlow votes in 2021, while Fyfe also battled on the injury front and played 15 games, far from his best in many.
In both circumstances, the champions simply couldn’t get going after their interrupted campaigns.
But, with three Brownlows between them and good history on the injury fronts, they’ve proven themselves to be the best midfielders in the competition and they’ll stand up in 2022 to remind the younger brigade who they’re chasing.
Furthermore, Dangerfield should spend more time on-ball if Jeremy Cameron and the Cats forward line can stay healthy, while the same can be said for Fyfe, with the Dockers walking wounded in 2021.
The duo have another four or five seasons each left in the league, and they’ll confirm themselves as some of the best midfielders of the 21st century through their resilience to be the best.
Seb Mottram