Adam Cooney is tipping Richmond to be “right on the edge” of playing finals in 2022.
The Tigers dropped off last year, finishing 12th with just nine wins and a draw, following a successful period of three premierships in four seasons.
Many are predicting Damien Hardwick’s side to fall away even further this year, given a group of their stars are into their 30s, while some believe they can recover quickly and contend again.
Richmond has made some key off-season moves, appointing co-captains Dylan Grimes and Toby Nankervis to replace Trent Cotchin who stepped down, while bringing in Robbie Tarrant from North Melbourne.
Brownlow Medallist Cooney acknowledges it was a tough season for the Tigers in 2021, while raising a few questions they must answer if they are to recoil.
“It’s fair to say that they hit the wall and they hit it hard,” he said on SEN SA Breakfast.
“The bounce back, the fight back didn’t happen. They had a lot of injuries, none bigger than Dustin Martin with five or six weeks left in the season, and they really struggled from there.
“It catches up with everyone. Being on top for that long is really hard to sustain.
“The question marks over the Tigers and can they get back into the top eight or the top four is how fit will Dustin Martin be? If he’s back to 100 per cent then he instantly makes them a better side.
“How will Noah Balta and Robbie Tarrant gel with the retirement of David Astbury?
“They’ve also lost a runner in Bachar Houli who used the ball so well and set them up.”
The former Bulldogs and Bombers midfielder assessed what could be ahead for the Tigers and what they need to do in order to improve this season.
He believes any upturn will come from a group of younger players who simply must step up and the return of ruckman Ivan Soldo who missed last year with a knee injury.
“The improvement from Richmond is going to have to come from Shai Bolton, Sydney Stack, Ivan Soldo coming back, Riley Collier-Dawkins, who was one of their shining lights in terms of the younger players. He needs two take his game to another level. Daniel Rioli needs to be the Bachar Houli replacement of half-back,” he added.
“If those players go to that next level and then the old boys, do they have enough left in the tank for one last crack at it before they retire?
“It’s probably going to be Trent Cotchin’s last year, Jack Riewoldt is still playing well, Shane Edwards is over 30, Kane Lambert is over 30, Martin is over 30 now, so it’s probably their last crack with this group.
“Can they go to the well one more time?
“If those players improve and the old boys get themselves up for one last go at it, then you can’t write them off.
“But it’s going to be really tough for Richmond to win a premiership again in 2022.
“They’ll have a better season than in 2021 because they’ve had some time off, some time to refresh and they’ll get players back.
“Can they get to the promised land again? I’m going to say no.”
How many wins for Richmond in 2022?
“11 wins for Richmond this year,” Cooney predicted.
“I don’t know if they’ll make the eight or not, I don’t know if 11 wins will get you there.
“I’ll say 11/12 wins, right on the edge of making finals.”
Co-host Andrew Hayes also made his prediction on the 2017, 2019 and 2020 premiers.
“I’ve got them for 10 wins. It purely depends on Dustin Martin and Tom Lynch,” he said.
The Tigers meet Geelong in a practice match at GMHBA Stadium this Saturday before taking on Hawthorn in the AAMI Community Series on March 5.
They will kick off their 2022 campaign against Carlton at the MCG on March 17.