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Who will win and why? The predictions and tips for Round 6

2022-04-21T15:29+10:00

The Anzac round of football is here and there’s no shortage of big matches to come over four days.

Headline acts include the Anzac Eve blockbuster between Richmond and Melbourne before the traditional Essendon v Collingwood match, which will see the biggest crowd at an AFL game gather since the 2019 Grand Final.

Fremantle’s clash against Carlton on Saturday night could trump them all, with both sides four wins from five to start the season.

See our tips and predictions for Round 6 below:

All times AEST

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GWS Giants v St Kilda

Friday - 7:50pm - Manuka Oval

GWS and St Kilda have started the season off on different feet despite many expecting these two sides to battle it out for a finals spot in 2022.

The Saints have shot out of the blocks to sit at 4-1, while the Giants are struggling at a diametric 1-4.

With that dire win-loss record, this game looms as a must-win for GWS and coach Leon Cameron whose future has come in for question as he remains without a contract for next year.

While the Giants will be desperate to win, that’ll be easier said than done against a Saints side that’s peeled off four straight wins and has won the last two between the sides head-to-head.

Last time out, the Saints toppled the Giants by eight points in Western Sydney, with Tim Membrey and Jade Gresham helping the away side to a tight win.

While the Saints are the away side, it’s the Giants that may not feel comfortable in Canberra as they’ve lost four of their last five games at Manuka in what was once a happy hunting ground for them.

With all the momentum on St Kilda’s side and the game being fixtured away from Giants Stadium, it’d take a brave punter to back GWS given their recent form, even with Toby Greene returning.

Tip: St Kilda by 16 points.

Lachlan Geleit


Western Bulldogs v Adelaide

Saturday - 1:45pm - Mars Stadium

The Bulldogs and Crows enter this Round 6 clash on the back of big Easter weekend wins as they now both hold win-loss records of 2-3.

While the Dogs are the home team, this clash is set for Ballarat’s Mars Stadium, with the Crows fixtured at the boutique ground against the boys from Footscray for the third time.

In their previous two encounters at the venue, the Dogs have claimed wins by 49 and 34 points respectively, proving a class above their travelling opponents.

Although the Crows will come in confident on the back of a rousing home win against Richmond, there appears to be a distinct gap in class on paper and the Bulldogs should enter the game as heavy favourites.

Bulldog midfielders have proven too strong for their adversarial Crows as they’ve helped their side to three straight wins head-to-head, and you’d expect them to pick up a fourth here and get their season back onto an even ledger.

If Adelaide are to have a chance, they’ll need to expose a Bulldogs defence that’s often looked second-rate against quality opposition and there’s no doubt the likes of Taylor Walker and Josh Rachele will give them headaches in pre-game meetings.

Despite this, the Dogs should have too much class at the stoppage and should be able to control the outcome from there.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 29 points.

Lachie Geleit


Port Adelaide v West Coast Eagles

Saturday - 4:35pm - Adelaide Oval

Two of the competition’s strugglers square off on Saturday in a game both would hold realistic hopes of winning.

It’s no secret both Port Adelaide and West Coast are battling at the moment, albeit for very different reasons.

The Eagles have battled through COVID-related issues for much of the season, robbing Adam Simpson of key personnel. Selection has become somewhat of a lottery week to week as West Coast battle to stay competitive this year.

The Power haven’t had to deal with the same absences, but have slumped to an unprecedented 0-5, with last year’s preliminary finalists' hopes of qualifying for the finals this year all but gone.

Pride will be on the line when these two clash at Adelaide Oval in Round 6. Based on their spirited second half performance against Carlton last week, the Power should be slight favourites for this one.

Who will win? In a battle of two struggling sides, it is anyone’s guess.

Tip: Port Adelaide by five points.

Laurence Rosen


Fremantle v Carlton

Saturday - 7:40pm - Optus Stadium

Fremantle hosts Carlton in an intriguing matchup between two 4-1 sides with a lot still to prove this season.

The Dockers have knocked off four one-win teams to start the season, while the Blues have been all over the shop in their wins over Richmond, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs.

The pressure will be on Brennan Cox, Alex Pearce and Luke Ryan to deal with Carlton’s red-hot key forward duo of Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow. The pair have combined for 26 goals so far this season, 41.3 per cent of Carlton’s goals – 51 per cent since Round 2.

The Blues proved they can kick a winning score without them against Richmond in Round 1, but it’s certainly a recipe for success against them. As will be the clearances given Carlton’s bread and butter this season has been scores from stoppages.

Matt Taberner versus Jacob Weitering will be a matchup to watch too, given the forward booted seven on Essendon last weekend. The Carlton key defender has been in excellent form all season.

The Blues have won their last four encounters with Fremantle, McKay kicking 10 goals on the Dockers across two games last year. Curnow also booted seven on Freo the last time he faced them.

The game taking place at Optus Stadium and the questionable health of the Blues skipper lean things Fremantle’s way, though recent form between the two teams and the damage McKay did to the Dockers in 2021 balances the scales. This is an absolute toss-up.

Tip: Carlton by 6 points.

Nic Negrepontis


North Melbourne v Geelong

Sunday - 1:10pm - Blundstone Oval

North Melbourne and Geelong clash on Sunday afternoon in the Roos’ first venture down to Hobart this season.

Both clubs are coming off disappointing losses after impressing the week before and will look to rebound at Blundstone Arena, with the Cats justifiably hot favourites.

Captain Joel Selwood was furious after the Easter Monday loss to Hawthorn, wishing the club only had a two or three-day break so as not to live with the bad performance for the week.

Expect the Cats to come out breathing fire, desperate not to lose two winnable games in a row. They have been able to flick the switch at times and get their attacking style going, but a lack of effort has cost the club.

Chris Scott’s men will be looking to improve their contested ball numbers on their performance against Hawthorn and their forward line will be dangerous once again if they can get consistent speed on the ball.

Meanwhile, the Roos have also shown they have a switch to flick too. They should have won against Sydney in Round 4 and then snapped the momentum against the Bulldogs on Good Friday to kick five consecutive goals in the second quarter.

Ultimately, this will be a contest of who can be consistent for longer, and if Selwood’s reaction is anything to go by, the Cats will be too fired up and too talented for the Roos.

Tip: Geelong by 28 points

Seb Mottram


Gold Coast Suns v Brisbane Lions

Sunday - 4:10pm - Metricon Stadium

Brisbane has owned Gold Coast since the latter entered the AFL in 2011.

The Lions have won their past six games by an average margin of 51 points against the Suns and 15 of the 21 meetings between the two Queensland clubs.

Sunday’s QClash at Metricon Stadium represents an opportunity for the Suns to break Brisbane’s dominance in this fixture.

The Suns have been competitive to start 2022 but only have two wins to show for it.

In last week’s 26-point loss to St Kilda, Stuart Dew’s side recorded more inside 50s, but were well beaten around the ball, losing the contested and uncontested possession count.

Their midfield will be tested against a star-studded Brisbane side sitting in the top four with a 4-1 win-loss record.

Chris Fagan’s side saw off a gallant Collingwood by seven points on Easter Thursday with spearhead Joe Daniher continuing his excellent start to the year with four goals.

Brisbane is averaging a competition-high 100.2 points per game and are viewed by some as Melbourne’s nearest challenger for the 2022 premiership.

While the Lions are clear favourites, expect the Suns to put in a spirited showing to break the trend of one-sided QClash encounters.

Tip: Brisbane by 18 points.

Alex Zaia


Richmond v Melbourne

Sunday - 7:25pm - MCG

Melbourne and Richmond will compete in their traditional Anzac Day eve clash on Sunday night at the G.

There’s no doubt Melbourne is the benchmark of the competition, winning their last 12 games and showing no signs of slowing down.

Richmond’s record against the Demons is strong, winning five of their last six battles, that loss coming in their most recent clash where the Dees blew them away by 34 points.

Damien Hardwick’s Richmond side have either been really good or really bad this year and against a Demon side that doesn’t give you an inch, this could be a blowout.

The likes of Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Ed Langdon and Jack Viney have dominated this year and facing an inexperienced Richmond midfield, expect that quartet to run amok along with Melbourne skipper Max Gawn who’s had back-to-back best on ground performances.

Richmond’s inconsistent performances this year make them impossible to tip.

Tip: Melbourne by 38 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick


Hawthorn v Sydney

Monday - 12:30pm - University of Tasmania Stadium

Both Hawthorn and Sydney enter this clash in good form as both sides sat inside top eight at the end of Round 5.

Sydney has an extra two days of break after easily taking care of West Coast last Friday, while the Hawks will be feeling buoyed after their massive Good Friday win against the Cats.

It’s Sydney who played at Launceston more recently than the pseudo-home side Hawthorn, with the Swans going down to the Giants by a solitary point in last year’s elimination final.

Last time head-to-head it was the Hawks who got the better of the Swans, with Tom Mitchell leading his side to an 89-51 win in 2021’s Round 13 at the SCG.

Apart from that result, these clashes have been traditionally close fought, with the margin last blowing out past 20 before that game in Round 16, 2015.

While Sydney will back themselves as the more credentialled side, Sam Mitchell’s outfit has proven they’re extremely competitive when they’re on and they could prove an even tougher task down in Tasmania.

Despite this, Sydney are probably a tier above the plucky Hawks and they’d be backing in their class and depth to get the job done.

Expect this one to be a tight tussle, but on paper Sydney should go in as favourites.

Tip: Sydney by 14 points.

Lachlan Geleit


Essendon v Collingwood

Monday - 3:20pm - MCG

The biggest home and away game of the season is here as the struggling Bombers take on a Collingwood side who has lost their last three, but have shown good signs under new coach Craig McRae.

Essendon’s capitulation at the hands of Fremantle last week has become one of the big talking points this week and they’ll no doubt be hellbent to respond after their second disappointing performance the year.

Collingwood, however, were brave in the opening game of Round 5 but ultimately lost to Brisbane at the Gabba. A 12-day break should have the Pies fully rested ahead of Monday’s big game.

McRae's side is undoubtedly favourites here and while they haven’t won a game since Round 2, they’re still playing better football than Essendon.

But the Bombers will be smarting after last week and on the big stage, they’ll be looking to make amends.

Tip: Collingwood by 23 points.

Laurence Rosen


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