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Who will win and why? The predictions and tips for Round 12

2022-06-02T16:15+10:00

The first of three bye weekends begins in Round 12, with some blockbuster matches on the cards.

The round begins under the roof at Marvel Stadium as the Western Bulldogs take on Geelong in a Friday night cracker, while on Saturday night, Melbourne hosts Sydney at the MCG in what could be an early finals preview.

Sunday’s double header remains the highlight of the round – with Hawthorn and Collingwood doing battle at the MCG, before Fremantle takes on Brisbane at Optus Stadium to close the round.

See our tips and predictions for Round 12 below:

All times AEST

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Western Bulldogs v Geelong

Friday – 7:50pm – Marvel Stadium

Western Bulldogs and Geelong kick off Round 12 in a crucial top eight clash at Marvel Stadium.

The Bulldogs jumped into the eight for the first time this season after belting West Coast by 101 points, improving their percentage from 110.7 to 121.8.

The Dogs are on a run of three straight wins and appear to be finding their groove following an inconsistent start to the year.

In a major selection boost, star midfielder Bailey Smith returns from a bout of the flu that kept him out of last week’s win over the Eagles.

A fourth consecutive win would see the Bulldogs draw level with the Cats on the ladder.

Geelong comfortably beat Adelaide by 42 points to make it back-to-back wins for the first time this year.

It’s a crucial game for both clubs with the Cats sitting a game clear of the Dogs at the halfway mark of the campaign.

While they got the job done at home against the Crows and Power, Geelong haven’t been at their best, but still find themselves in sixth spot with big scope for improvement.

Injured star Patrick Dangerfield is a big miss for the Cats against a star-studded Dogs midfield.

It’s an area of the ground where Luke Beveridge’s side could gain the ascendancy.

Tip: Western Bulldogs by 15 points.

Alex Zaia


Adelaide v West Coast

Saturday – 1:45pm – Adelaide Oval

The Crows return to Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon to take on the struggling Eagles.

It’s a battle of 15th vs 18th on the ladder, and it presents an opportunity for Adelaide to break a five-game losing streak.

Matthew Nicks’ troops started the season 3-3 and showed grit and fight in their game, and while that’s been a feature of their season, they’ve been lacking polish for the majority of the year.

Adelaide will have their best chance this year to correct that. Coming up against a West Coast outfit that is arguably the worst side in the competition in a decade, the young Crows should have the time and space in periods of the game to showcase improving foot skills.

They’ll also be further boosted by the return of Taylor Walker who will look to stretch an already leaky West Coast defence.

Meanwhile, the goal for the Eagles from a competition point of view has to be not letting it come easy for Adelaide.

Adam Simpson rolled out a team that was actually older than the Western Bulldogs in Round 11 in the 101-point romp, meaning the excuses are coming to an end.

Despite that, the Eagles are still languishing with just one win to their name. Few expect them to win on Saturday, but Simpson simply has to find a way to get more effort from his players.

Another massive loss for the club would be disastrous, especially against the struggling Crows.

Tip: Adelaide by 28 points.

Seb Mottram


Gold Coast v North Melbourne

Saturday – 4:35pm – TIO Stadium

TIO Stadium will play host to North Melbourne and Gold Coast on Saturday evening.

The Suns improved their record to 5-6 after a dominant 67-point win against the Hawks in Round 10, arguably their best performance for the year under trying conditions in Darwin.

Jarrod Witts will look to continue his stunning form against the ruck duo of Todd Goldstein and Tristan Xerri. If North allow Witts to dominate – look out.

Gold Coast’s wins this year have been built off pressure, and in dewy conditions on Saturday, expect the Suns to crack in.

Sitting 17th on the ladder, North is on a nine-game losing streak, most recently going down by 53 points in an uninspiring performance against St Kilda.

Losing forward Cam Zurhaar is a big blow for David Noble’s side, the young forward one of the few shining lights this year.

It’s almost impossible to tip the Kangaroos given the way they’re currently playing.

Tip: Gold Coast by 27 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick


Melbourne v Sydney

Saturday – 7:25pm – MCG

Melbourne’s 17-match winning run, dating back to round 20 last year, was brought to a halt by Fremantle last weekend.

It came at the end of May and coincidentally when All-Australian defender Steven, of the same name, went off the ground with concussion.

Some may say it was a loss Simon Goodwin’s side needed to have, while others will feel it shows they can be beaten, breathing new life into the overall make-up of the season.

While the Demons went down, Sydney mustered a superb come-from-behind win over Richmond.

It was largely due to Lance Franklin’s bag of five goals, three of which came in an 11-minute patch in a frenetic final term. But ‘Buddy’ got himself in trouble for striking Trent Cotchin and will miss the Saturday night clash, cancelling out May’s absence.

Head-to-head, the Dees and Swans have shared two wins apiece across their last four meetings, following a run of seven straight wins for the Sydneysiders. Melbourne won by nine points at the MCG in Round 8 last year.

Despite the defeat and the loss of May, the Demons get back premiership quartet Ed Langdon, Tom McDonald, James Harmes and Christian Salem, which is a timely boost.

The Swans are never out of a contest, as evidenced by last week, but the Dees will be eager to bounce back and should do so in a tight one.

Tip: Demons by 12 points.

Andrew Slevison


Hawthorn v Collingwood

Sunday – 2:10pm – MCG

Hawthorn and Collingwood entered 2022 in similar territory.

The Hawks and Magpies, led by first-year coaches Sam Mitchell and Craig McRae respectively, were widely tipped to struggle in a rebuilding year.

As things stand, McRae’s side are two games clear of Mitchell’s troops going into Sunday’s match at the MCG.

Hawthorn’s inconsistencies were laid bare in their 67-point loss to Gold Coast in in Darwin, just a week after beating second-placed Brisbane.

In hot and humid conditions, the 4-7 Hawks were well beaten around the ball losing contested possessions, clearances and tackles.

Collingwood improved to 6-5 thanks to a thrilling four-point win over arch-rivals Carlton in front of a bumper MCG crowd of 80,627.

All of a sudden, the Pies are back in the finals mix, sitting outside the eight on percentage behind the Western Bulldogs and Richmond.

Collingwood has now won as many games as they did for the whole of last year, a clear sign of their improvement under McRae.

The Hawks beat the Magpies by 19 points in their most recent meeting to make it four wins from their last five encounters in this particular fixture.

Collingwood go in as slight favourites as you’re not quite sure which Hawthorn side will turn up.

Tip: Collingwood by 8 points.

Alex Zaia


Fremantle v Brisbane

Saturday – 5:20pm – Optus Stadium

Fremantle hosts Brisbane in what looms as a potential finals preview between top four teams.

The Dockers handed Melbourne their first loss of the year last weekend, bringing a clear plan to take away the Demons’ strengths and taking full advantage of Steven May’s absence.

Brisbane meanwhile answered after going down early to GWS, once again proving their finals credentials.

The Lions have a strong recent record against Freo, having won their last three, including in Round 21 of last season at Optus Stadium.

However, Fremantle is significantly improved this season and their win over the Demons showed what they’re capable of, following what was a disappointing fortnight.

Lachie Neale is currently in better form than his Brownlow year. Can the Dockers quell his influence and hurt them the other way?

Will Brodie versus Jarryd Lyons will be a match-up to keep an eye on in the middle. Two players discarded by Gold Coast who have gone on to flourish at their next clubs.

This will be a clash between comfortably the best attacking team in the competition in Brisbane and the hardest defence in the league to score against in Freo.

The Lions rank first for points scored. The Dockers rank last for points conceded.

Who will win the war between attack and defence? Usually offence triumphs.

Tip: Brisbane by 9 points.

Nic Negrepontis


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