With 11 rounds to play, there are still 12 teams with a genuine chance to play finals.
Two wins separate Brisbane in second and Collingwood in eighth and all of Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs could realistically push someone out.
So what happens from here? Who knows, but we can have a look at the run home and make some predictions!
Before we go team by team, here are some general predictions:
• You may need 13 wins and a good percentage to guarantee a finals berth this year, as opposed to 11 last year.
• Melbourne is no certainty to win the minor premiership given Brisbane and Geelong’s easier fixtures.
• If the Western Bulldogs make finals, they will have earned it given how tough their run is.
Current record: 10-2
Run Home: Collingwood (MCG), BYE, Brisbane (MCG), Adelaide (AO), Geelong (GMHBA), Port Adelaide (TIO), Western Bulldogs (MS), Fremantle (OS), Collingwood (MCG), Carlton (MCG), Brisbane (Gabba).
Decisive games: Brisbane x2, Fremantle away, Geelong away.
Win range: 15 to 18 wins
Ladder range: 1st to 4th
Melbourne is following a similar trajectory to last season where they started off in blistering fashion, before a mid-year slump.
If they want the minor premiership, it’s theirs to claim given they face Brisbane twice, Fremantle and Geelong and they could easily stamp their flag.
We’ve actually got them going 1-3 in those four games, given they’re mostly on the road, but the Dees could still sweep the rest of their games and get to 17 wins.
Current record: 9-3
Run Home: St Kilda (G), BYE, Melbourne (MCG), Western Bulldogs (G), Essendon (G), GWS (Manuka), Gold Coast (G), Richmond (MCG), Carlton (G), St Kilda (MS), Melbourne (G).
Decisive games: Melbourne x2, Richmond, Carlton, St Kilda.
Win range: 15 to 18 wins
Ladder range: 1st to 5th
Brisbane has positioned themselves nicely heading into the bye and are right where they would want to be. From here they play Melbourne twice but have an easier fixture by comparison to the Demons and Dockers.
If they can split the series with the Dees and tick off every game at the Gabba – including tough ones against the Saints, Blues, Dogs and Suns, they are top four locks.
They can afford to drop road games against St Kilda, Richmond and Melbourne if they do so.
Current record: 9-3
Run Home: Hawthorn (OS), BYE, Carlton (MS), Port Adelaide (OS), St Kilda (MS), Sydney (OS), Richmond (MS), Melbourne (OS), Western Bulldogs (MS), West Coast (OS), GWS Giants (Manuka).
Decisive games: Carlton, Richmond, Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney.
Win range: 14 to 17 wins
Ladder range: 1st to 5th
Fremantle is in red-hot form right now having knocked off Melbourne and Brisbane in successive weeks. Can they keep the snowball rolling and finish top two?
It will depend on whether they can keep their road form up. They play Carlton, St Kilda, Richmond and the Bulldogs in Victoria. If they pinch a couple of those, anything is possible.
We have them winning 16 games, saluting every home game from here.
Current record: 8-4
Run Home: West Coast (OS), Richmond (MCG), North Melbourne (GMHBA), Melbourne (GMHBA), Carlton (MCG), Port Adelaide (AO), Western Bulldogs (GMHBA), St Kilda (GMHBA), Gold Coast (Met), West Coast (GMHBA)
Decisive games: Richmond, Melbourne, Carlton, St Kilda.
Win range: 15 to 18 wins__
Ladder range: 1st to 4th
Geelong has a dream run to September from here. They play West Coast twice and North Melbourne, and most of their significant challenges will be played down at Kardinia Park.
They get Melbourne, St Kilda and the Dogs in Geelong and two big MCG games against the Tigers and Blues.
The Cats could absolutely win the minor premiership from here given their draw, even if they drop say Richmond at the ‘G and Port Adelaide away. They should start favourites in almost every game from here.
Current Record: 8-3
Run Home: Brisbane (G), Essendon (MS), Sydney (SCG), Carlton (MS), Fremantle (MS), Western Bulldogs (MS), West Coast (OS), Hawthorn (MS), Geelong (GMHBA), Brisbane (MS), Sydney (MS).
Decisive games: Sydney x2, Carlton, Fremantle, Bulldogs, Geelong, Brisbane x2.
Win range: 13 to 16 wins
Ladder range: 4th to 8th
St Kilda is arguably the toughest team to predict from here of the established top eight sides. Their run home from here is tough given they face the Lions twice, Swans twice, Blues, Dockers, Cats and Dogs.
They have seven more games at Docklands and this is where their season will be decided, particularly the clashes with Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney, Brisbane and the Bulldogs.
If the Saints play to the level they have shown, they could easily sweep those games. A bit of bad luck and they could go 1-4 and fall down the ladder. Road games against the Cats, Lions and Swans present opportunities to pinch one.
Current record 8-4
Run Home: BYE, Port Adelaide (AO), St Kilda (SCG), Essendon (MCG), Western Bulldogs (SCG), Fremantle (OS), Adelaide (SCG), GWS (SCG), North Melbourne (MS), Collingwood (SCG), St Kilda (MS).
Decisive games: Port Adelaide, St Kilda x2, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, St Kilda.
Win range: 14-16 wins
Ladder range: 4th to 8th
Given how tight the positioning race is in the top eight, Sydney will need to continue the momentum from beating Melbourne and knock off a few teams around them on the run home.
Playing the Saints twice, Port Adelaide, the Bulldogs, Fremantle and Collingwood from here means the Swans have a number of eight-point games.
We have them winning 15 games, but they could easily swing road losses to Port Adelaide and St Kilda and jump into the top four.
Current record: 8-3
Run Home: Essendon (MCG), Richmond (MCG), Fremantle (MS), St Kilda (MS), West Coast (OS), Geelong (MCG), GWS (MS), Adelaide (AO), Brisbane (G), Melbourne (MCG), Collingwood (MCG).
Decisive games: Richmond, Fremantle, St Kilda, Collingwood.
Win range: 12-15 wins
Ladder range: 5th to 8th
Carlton is simply in survival mode until key players like Harry McKay, Jacob Weitering, Marc Pittonet, Mitch McGovern and more return, but Friday night’s clash with Essendon is an absolute must-win.
They then face Richmond, Fremantle and St Kilda and if the Blues can leave this next month 2-2, they’ll be in a good spot for holding onto their position in the top eight.
From there, wins over West Coast, GWS, Adelaide and Collingwood will get them to 14 wins and giving them a free swing at the likes of Melbourne, Brisbane and Geelong.
Current record 7-5
Run Home: Melbourne (MCG), BYE, GWS (MCG), Gold Coast (Met), North Melbourne (MCG), Adelaide (AO), Essendon (MCG), Port Adelaide (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), Sydney (SCG), Carlton (MCG).
Decisive games: Port Adelaide, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Sydney, Carlton.
Win range: 10 to 14 wins
Ladder range: 8th to 12th
Former Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley declared on SEN Breakfast that his old side would play finals this year – so what is their path to September?
The Magpies have enough winnable games to get there, the question will simply be whether they can deliver consistently. They should beat GWS, Essendon and North Melbourne, which gets them to 10 wins.
They then need to find at least three more wins. Adelaide and Gold Coast on the road loom as games they will target, as well as Carlton in Round 23 and Port Adelaide at the MCG. Even with 13 wins, it may come down to percentage and Collingwood is currently a little off the pack in that regard.
Current record: 6-6
Run Home: GWS (GS), Hawthorn (MS), Brisbane (G), Sydney (SCG), St Kilda (MS), Melbourne (MS), Geelong (GMHBA), Fremantle (MS), GWS (MS), Hawthorn (UTAS).
Decisive games: St Kilda, Melbourne, Geelong, Fremantle.
Win range: 11 to 14 wins
Ladder range: 8th to 12th
Last year’s runners up may come to regret losing winnable games to this point in the season because their run home is brutal.
Home games against GWS and Hawthorn may be the only two games they enter as heavy favourites. They also play both of those teams in Western Sydney and Tasmania respectively, which is no walkover.
Let’s assume the Bulldogs do win all four of those games. They will then need to find three to four more wins against Brisbane, Sydney, St Kilda, Melbourne, Geelong and Fremantle. We have the Dogs going 11-11.
Richmond
Current record: 6-5
Run Home: Port Adelaide (MCG), Carlton (MCG), Geelong (MCG), West Coast (MCG), Gold Coast (Met), North Melbourne (MS), Fremantle (MS), Brisbane (MCG), Port Adelaide (AO), Hawthorn (MCG), Essendon (MCG).
Decisive games: Carlton, Port Adelaide x2, Brisbane, Geelong, Fremantle.
Win range: 14-17
__Ladder range: 4th to 8th
Richmond fans shouldn’t be too concerned by their current ladder position given their fixture from here. They get interstate teams like Port Adelaide, Fremantle and Brisbane on their home turf, and get Carlton at a good time given their injuries.
Geelong has a ‘home’ game against them at the MCG and they should pick up wins over the likes of West Coast, North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Essendon.
If things break right for the Tigers, they could easily finish with 16 wins and finish inside the top four.
Current record: 6-6
Run Home: BYE, Adelaide (Met), Port Adelaide (AO), Collingwood (Met), Richmond (Met), Essendon (MS), Brisbane (G), West Coast (Met), Hawthorn (UTAS), Geelong (Met), North Melbourne (MS).
Decisive games: Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn, Geelong.
Win range: 10-13 wins
Ladder range: 8th to 12th
Is this the year Gold Coast breaks their finals duck? They sit at 6-6 at their bye and have a fixture that should at least give them a shot at finding the seven more wins required.
Let’s give the Suns wins over West Coast, North Melbourne, Adelaide and Essendon – there’s four. They then need to beat three of Collingwood, Hawthorn, Richmond, Geelong, Port Adelaide or the Q-Clash.
With the threshold for finals looking like 13 or even 14 wins, it’s hard to see Gold Coast getting there at the present time.
Current record: 5-6
Run Home: Richmond (MCG), Sydney (AO), Gold Coast (AO), Fremantle (OS), GWS (AO), Melbourne (TIO), Geelong (AO), Collingwood (MCG), Richmond (AO), Essendon (MS), Adelaide (AO).
Decisive games: Richmond x2, Sydney, Geelong, Collingwood, Adelaide.
Win range: 10-14
Ladder range: 8th to 12th
Port Adelaide has recovered well from 0-5, but it’s asking a lot to make finals from that position. Now at 5-6, they will have to find eight or nine wins to play finals given their percentage.
Pinching a game like this Thursday night’s clash with Richmond would be a strong start. They’ll have to win every game at home, including against Sydney, Geelong and the Showdown.
There’s no margin for error for the Power from here. They can’t afford more than two or three losses.