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Who will win and why? The predictions and tips for Round 13

2022-06-07T14:36+10:00

Round 13 is headlined by three big games at the MCG – starting off on Thursday night and ending with the traditional Queen’s Birthday game to finish on Monday.

On Friday night, Essendon will celeberate their 150th anniversary with a game against arch rivals Carlton.

One of the other highlights of the round is Brisbane’s crunch home clash against the high-flying Saints at the Gabba. Could St Kilda claim another big scalp away from home and rocket into the top four?

See our tips and predictions for Round 13 below:

All times AEST

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Richmond v Port Adelaide

Thursday – 7:20pm – MCG

Thursday night football is back and with it, comes a clash which promises plenty of intrigue.

Both Richmond and Port Adelaide are fresh coming off their mid-season bye and enter the opening game of Round 13 on the back of contrasting fortunes in their last game – Richmond went down to Sydney in a nailbiter at the SCG, while the Power beat Essendon last time out.

Ken Hinkley’s side will relish another chance to play at the MCG, after their close to Carlton at the home of football earlier in the season.

Richmond will regain Noah Balta, Marlion Pickett and Kane Lambert in a big triple boost ahead of the match, with Balta a good chance to head to Charlie Dixon on the night.

This is one of several games coming up for the Tigers which they’ll need to win as the race for the top eight heats up.

Heading into what should be a tight battle, Richmond is favourites but after resurrecting their season in the last month, Port Adelaide shouldn’t be taken lightly.

Tip: Richmond by eight points.

Laurence Rosen


Essendon v Carlton

Friday – 7:50pm – MCG

The first of three consecutive Friday night games for Essendon comes in Round 13 in a clash lacking some of the fanfare it deserves.

With Essendon celebrating their 150th anniversary and Carlton hungry to continue their impressive start to the year, this game could arguably be one of the biggest blockbusters of the season had the Bombers not flopped.

Entering this pivotal clash with a 2-9 record wouldn’t have been in Ben Rutten’s plans, but his side could be set to offer a response in the midst of a mid-season review.

They got better as the game wore on against Port Adelaide in Round 13, and the vision of Darcy Parish and Dyson Heppell clashing on field indicates the players are still invested.

However, the response is going to have to be unprecedented if they can knock off Carlton. The Blues have a clear advantage around the ball and also maintain the runs on the board when it comes to pressure and intensity, but could be exposed at either end of the ground with Harry McKay and Jacob Weitering both out.

The blueprint is there, but the Blues will be desperate to keep within touching distance of the top four and are expected to fire once again on the big stage.

Tip: Carlton by 27 points.

Seb Mottram


Fremantle v Hawthorn

Saturday – 4:10pm – Optus Stadium

Fremantle will play host to Hawthorn at Optus Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Having beaten Melbourne and Brisbane in consecutive weeks, the Dockers head into this clash as the justified favourites.

Justin Longmuir’s side will also welcome back dual Brownlow medallist Nathan Fyfe, a handy acquisition.

Meanwhile Hawthorn was gallant in defeat against Collingwood last week, once again proving they aren’t an easy beat under new coach Sam Mitchell.

Trying to nullify Fremantle’s midfield has proven very tough this year, Andy Brayshaw, Caleb Serong, David Mundy and Will Brodie have consistently piled on impressive numbers, if they’re able to do as they please on Saturday, Hawks are next to no chance.

The Dockers also have a dominant recent record against Hawthorn, having won their last three, including a 62-point win in Round 17 of last season at UTAS Stadium.

Despite the loss to the Pies, Hawthorn’s youthful energy has seen them compete against the competition’s best.

Mitch Lewis versus Alex Pearce will be a match-up to key an eye on, two players that have had terrific seasons this year.

The last six times these teams have battled it out in Perth, Fremantle have gone undeafeated, winning by an average of 31 points - expecting them to make it seven straight.

Tip: Fremantle by 39 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick


Brisbane v St Kilda

Saturday – 7:25pm – MCG

Brisbane versus St Kilda, second versus fifth leading into the weekend in what promises to be one of the matches of the round.

The Lions enter this on the back of a 14-point loss to the high-flying Fremantle, which was their second defeat in three weeks.

Chris Fagan’s side started in hot form in Perth last weekend before they were eventually overpowered by the Dockers and they’ll be keen to quickly right those wrongs here.

However, they meet a Saints outfit that has won three on the trot and are marching towards September and a potential top-four berth.

The Saints comfortably won the 2021 edition of this fixture by 32 points at Metricon Stadium in Round 17, arresting a run of two straight Lions victories.

St Kilda return to the Gabba for the first time since 2020 when they held a 4-3 win-loss record, which included a two-point loss to the Lions who are undefeated at their home ground this season. They’ve won all five at the venue, as well as nine of 11 their last year.

While the Lions remain in the top four, they find themselves just a game clear of those in pursuit, including Brett Ratten’s storming Saints.

They might just have enough speed forward of centre to worry the Lions’ defence, which at times appears cumbersome.

Saints to salute in a tight affair.

Tip: St Kilda by six points.

Andrew Slevison


North Melbourne v GWS

Sunday – 3:20pm – Marvel Stadium

Can North Melbourne finally break their run of losses when they host GWS at Marvel Stadium?

They have a strong recent record against the Giants, drawing in 2021 and winning the 2020 and 2018 encounters.

Josh Kelly was dominant in the 2021 draw, picking up 39 disposals and kicking 2.1.

The Giants showed strong form before their bye, pushing Brisbane all the way to the final siren.

The Roos meanwhile were poor after quarter time against Gold Coast, going down by 62 points.

North has not kicked more than 70 points since Round 5 and will need to do so to kick a winning score in what should be a winnable game.

They will also need to match the Giants’ physicality around the ball and minimise turnovers in the back-half. If they don’t shoot themselves in the foot, they are a shot.

Expect the Roos to be up for a winnable game, but GWS’ midfield unit is too strong and North hasn’t proven they can kick a winnable score.

Tip: GWS by 18 points.

Nic Negrepontis


Collingwood v Melbourne

Monday – 3:20pm – MCG

The annual Big Freeze match between Melbourne and Collingwood returns to the MCG. COVID has prevented the Queen’s Birthday clash being held in Melbourne since 2019.

But the eighth edition of the Big Freeze, a major fundraiser co-founded by FightMND sufferer Neale Daniher, will be played at home of the football in front of what is expected to be a bumper crowd.

The Demons enter the match coming off a second consecutive losses, this time to Sydney by 12 points.

Melbourne all of a sudden appear vulnerable after winning their opening 10 games of the season.

They face a resurgent Magpies outfit who jumped into the eight after beating Hawthorn last time out.

The four-point victory over the Hawks was Collingwood’s third on the spin and has them firmly in the mix for a finals spot at the midway mark of the year.

Collingwood shocked Melbourne in the corresponding fixture last year at the SCG in Nathan Buckley’s final game as Pies coach.

The Magpies have a good recent record against the Dees, winning four of their last five meetings.

Although the Magpies are an improved side, it’s hard to see the reigning premiers losing three in a row.

Tip: Melbourne by 17 points.

Alex Zaia


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