Round 16 kicks off with a pair of tantalising clashes – Brisbane hosting the Western Bulldogs on Thursday night at the Gabba followed by Carlton and St Kilda at Marvel Stadium on Friday night.
Saturday sees Essendon hosting Sydney at the MCG as they look to find some form, before a much-anticipated clash on the Gold Coast between the Suns and Collingwood.
Fremantle and Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium is the pick of the Sunday matches.
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Brisbane v Western Bulldogs
Thursday – 7:20pm – Gabba
Brisbane will look for a swift response following last week’s 64-point loss to Melbourne.
The Lions dropped to third on the ladder and are now equal on 10 wins with three other teams – Geelong, Fremantle and Carlton.
They face a Western Bulldogs side who jumped into eighth spot after their 42-point win over Hawthorn last time out.
It made it five wins in six for the Bulldogs as they continue to climb the ladder after a slow start to the year.
The Dogs are the last team to beat the Lions at the Gabba, recording an epic one-point win in last year’s semi-final.
Brisbane is undefeated at the Gabba in 2022, winning all seven home games.
Thursday night’s clash has big finals implications. A loss for either side could be detrimental to their hopes of finishing in the top four and the top eight.
Recent meetings between the two clubs have been relatively tight with the Bulldogs doing the double over the Lions last season.
Given their formidable home record, Brisbane will go in as favourites, but the in-form Dogs will provide a stern test.
Tip: Brisbane by 10 points.
Alex Zaia
Carlton v St Kilda
Friday – 7:50pm – Marvel Stadium
Friday night football sees high-flying Carlton take on St Kilda, who are in desperate need of a good performance.
The Blues – still missing a large chunk of their first-choice defence – dominated one of the best sides in the competition in Fremantle last week.
On the flipside, the Saints left Sydney battered and bruised after being taken apart by the Swans at the SCG.
Brett Ratten’s side slipped out of the top eight following the 51-point loss.
Carlton will welcome back Adam Cerra for Round 16, while St Kilda is widely tipped to regain Patrick Ryder and Brad Hill after both missed last weekend.
The combination of Carlton’s potent midfield and three-pronged tall forward line is firing at the moment and should be too good for the Saints.
Tip: Carlton by 25 points.
Laurence Rosen
Essendon v Sydney
Saturday - 1:45pm – MCG
Essendon will play host to the Sydney Swans at the MCG on Saturday afternoon.
Sydney’s recent record against the Bombers is strong, winning the last three by an average of 23 points – their most recent clash in Round 9 saw the Swans thrash the Dons by 58 points.
John Longmire’s Swans head into this match in form, belting St Kilda last week by 51 points in a muscle-flexing performance against a then top eight side.
Sydney’s back flankers were dynamic, Jake Lloyd (39 disposals), Nick Blakey (31) and Ollie Florent (27) were the three best players on the ground – those three will be licking their lips as they walk out onto the wide MCG expanses.
As for the Bombers, they head into this game having lost the almost unlosable against the struggling West Coast Eagles.
Essendon’s best footy is good, their win against St Kilda a fortnight ago would see them be competitive on Saturday – but tipping them would be lunacy.
Sydney is challenging for the top four, surely they’ll be beating the lowly Dons.
Tip: Sydney by 36 points.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
Adelaide v Melbourne
Saturday – 4:35pm – Adelaide Oval
Both Adelaide and Melbourne head into this clash on the back of bounce-back wins with victories over the Kangaroos and Lions respectively.
While both found a bit of form, Melbourne’s win was certainly more impressive as it came against a contender in Brisbane, compared to the Crows taking care of wooden-spoon favourites North Melbourne in Hobart.
On paper, this clash looks like a mismatch, with Melbourne a contender and Adelaide in a rebuilding phase, but this exact clash last year saw an upset with the Crows winning by one point at home – the Dees' second last defeat before going on to claim the premiership.
While they’ll take some confidence that they can get the job done at home, looking at both sides on paper, it’s hard to see any area of the ground where the Crows will have the better of their more fancied opponent.
Having come off the bye and found some form, expect Melbourne’s firepower to see them over the top of Adelaide, even if they don’t fire on all cylinders – they should have enough.
This could get ugly if the foot goes to the accelerator, it’ll be a matter of how long the Crows can hang around until the floodgates open.
Tip: Melbourne by 41 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Geelong v North Melbourne
Saturday – 7:25pm – GMHBA Stadium
North Melbourne currently have little going for them, and things certainly won’t get any easier on Saturday night.
They began a review of sorts this week with Geoff Walsh brought into the club, while young gun Will Phillips was also ruled out for the season on Tuesday.
In the midst of a 12-game losing streak and one of their worst seasons in history, they’re understandably long odds to beat Geelong at GMHBA Stadium.
North Melbourne hasn’t scored over 64 points in their last eight games, with their issues forward of the ball clearly not going to cut it against most AFL sides.
However, they’re likely to struggle further against the Cats. Chris Scott’s defence has conceded the fourth-least points in 2022, meaning the Roos will have to pull out all the stops just to kick over ten goals.
On the flip side, even though Geelong appears unlikely to regain Patrick Dangerfield for the match, they’ll enter full of confidence to get the job done.
Scott’s troops have kicked over 104 points once since Round 3, the only time coming in Round 6 against the Roos.
The Cats will be hoping for a big percentage boost, but it’s hard to see them kicking a monstrous score.
Tip: Geelong by 55 points.
Seb Mottram
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Gold Coast v Collingwood
Saturday – 7:25pm – Metricon Stadium
Gold Coast is two games behind Collingwood heading into their must-win home clash on Saturday night.
The Suns were gallant but fell agonisingly short of recording a first ever win at Adelaide Oval, going down to Port Adelaide by two points.
The loss leaves Stuart Dew’s side a game out of the top eight with a 7-7 win-loss record.
It’s a huge game for the Suns in their endeavours to make a first finals series in club history.
As for the 9-5 Magpies, they jumped from ninth to seventh thanks to a hard-fought 11-point win over GWS at the MCG.
Collingwood extended their winning streak to five games and are right in contention to make the finals after finishing a lowly 17th position last year.
Craig McRae has transformed the Magpies and with winnable comes to come, an unlikely September appearance is now a reality.
Their trip to the Sunshine State looms as a tricky assignment given the Suns have been ultra-competitive this season.
Collingwood has won four of their previous six visits to Metricon Stadium and claimed victory in their most recent meeting against the Suns, running out 25-point winners at the MCG.
The Pies are on a roll and a win here would be a huge step towards making the eight.
Tip: Collingwood by 8 points.
Alex Zaia
Richmond v West Coast
Sunday – 2:10pm – MCG
Coming off a big confidence boosting win, West Coast will now take on Richmond at the MCG.
The Eagles are getting soldiers back and starting to resemble a competent AFL side.
Is it enough to beat Richmond though? The Tigers have lost a few players to injury, but are playing their best brand of footy at the present time.
They went down to Geelong in a tight contest that could have gone either way last week and if they play to that level on the MCG, Richmond will be too strong for West Coast.
When the two sides met in Round 7, the Tigers won by 109 points in one of the routs of the season.
Tom Lynch kicked 7.5, Jack Riewoldt kicked four and Richmond did as they pleased.
You would imagine the Eagles will put up somewhat more of a challenge this time around.
Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling are in good form and the West Coast midfield is closing in on full strength, the question will be whether the backline can hold up.
Given all the factors, it’s impossible to tip the Eagles, but they will be competitive.
Tip: Richmond by 40 points.
Nic Negrepontis
GWS GIANTS v Hawthorn
Sunday – 3:20pm – GIANTS Stadium
GWS and Hawthorn meet in Sydney on Sunday with both teams very evenly matched.
Sitting 14th and 15th respectively with 4-10 records, both the Giants and Hawks have shown plenty across the 2022 campaign without getting results.
Under new coaches Mark McVeigh and Sam Mitchell, each side has shown that they can attack freely and score heavily, while both face issues down back.
With a potential shootout ahead of us pending climatic conditions, key forwards Mitch Lewis and Jesse Hogan could go big and hold their side’s key to victory.
While the Giants have been a quality side in recent years and Hawthorn has slipped back, it’s the Hawks who seem to have the wood over their opponents, winning three of their last four match-ups.
Their last meeting came in Round 15 of last year with Hawthorn winning by three goals, but both teams are drastically changed since that encounter.
With the game set for GIANTS Stadium, GWS enter as slight favourites, and that’s probably the only difference between the sides as neither has shown the consistency needed to put your faith behind them.
As the match-up looks so even on paper, the tip goes to the home team, but that could easily be swayed if Hawthorn’s forwards get going against a Giants’ defence that’s looked leaky.
Tip: GWS by 9 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Fremantle v Port Adelaide
Sunday – 5:20pm – Optus Stadium
Fremantle and Port Adelaide come together to put an exclamation mark on this weekend’s action in what shapes as a massive game for both clubs.
The Dockers travelled to Melbourne last weekend and failed in their quest to knock off Carlton, losing by 31 points in a game where they were dominated in almost every area.
The Power kept their finals hopes alive with a narrow two-point victory over Gold Coast which has them sitting two games outside the top eight prior to this round.
Port have enjoyed the head-to-head honours over the last three encounters, winning twice at home and once at Metricon Stadium, following a pair of Fremantle home wins. The Power have won those three by an average margin of 39 points, but this game returns to Optus Stadium where the Dockers are much better. They have a 6-2 win-loss record at the venue this season.
The Dockers have been difficult to score against this season, boasting the second least points against, while Port have scored just the fourth lowest tally in the competition, but have been better in attack in the last fortnight.
Port will get some players back with Tom Jonas, Darcy Byrne-Jones and Zak Butters likely to be selected after healthy and safety protocols and a knee injury to the latter.
But Justin Longmuir’s Freo side are in danger of dropping out of the top four and with that as a genuine threat, they will rebound at home, even if Ken Hinkley’s Power will be hard to beat.
Tip: Fremantle by 12 points.
Andrew Slevison