There is no such thing as a certainty in footy.
Or is there?
We’ve had certainties for Thursday, we have them for Friday night footy, but with seven other games in Round 16, we’ve taken a close look to come up with one certainty for each team for the remaining matches.
Take a look at our certainties for the rest of the weekend’s action.
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Essendon v Sydney
Parish to have 25+ disposals, 3+ clearances, 3+ inside 50s
Darcy Parish is back in the Essendon team and ready to resume his prolific ball-gathering form.
Across 12 outings in season 2022, Parish is averaging 32.9 disposals, 6.2 inside 50s and five clearances.
In his last three against Sydney, he has averaged 30 touches along with 6.3 clearances and 5.6 inside 50s.
This Saturday against the Swans, Parish will need to provide a spark in the middle by being busy on the stats sheet.
For the 24-year-old, 25 or more touches plus 3 or more clearances and 3 or more inside 50s should be well within the realms of possibility.
Franklin, Heeney and Papley to combine for 6+ goals
Lance Franklin, Isaac Heeney and Tom Papley are Sydney’s most damaging players in attack.
This year, Franklin is averaging 2.5 goals, Heeney 2 and Papley 1.4.
Against an Essendon side that has given up the fourth most points so far this campaign, the Swans should get ample opportunity.
Last time these two sides met at the SCG in Round 9, the aforementioned triumvirate combined for 5.9 from 14 scoring shots and should go at least one goal better against the Dons at the MCG.
Andrew Slevison
Adelaide v Melbourne
Walker to kick multiple goals
Since returning from his AFL-imposed sanction in Round 4, Walker is averaging just shy of three goals a game whilst also leading the league for score involvements per game.
The 32-year-old has catapulted into All-Australian contention as he continues his unlikely resurgence as one of the game’s premier key forwards.
The five-time Crows leading goalkicker comes in fresh from a six-goal performance against North Melbourne, and we’ll back Walker to continue his goal-scoring form this week against the Dees.
Oliver will have 30+ touches and 5+ clearances
No one can get near the reigning premiers’ reigning best and fairest winner in 2022.
Fresh off a monster seven-year contract extension at the Dees, Clayton Oliver is one of the favourites for this year’s Brownlow Medal, averaging a career-high 34.5 disposals and 8.4 clearances per game, and leads the league for handballs, clearances and contested possessions.
The 24-year-old’s numbers against Adelaide are pretty healthy too, averaging 33 touches and 10 clearances in his last five meetings with the Crows.
It’s hard to see any opposition mids quelling Oliver on Saturday, so put him down for 30+ and watch him dominate the stoppages.
Terence Lattanzio
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Geelong v North Melbourne
Cameron will be leading the Coleman Medal race by the end of the game
Jeremy Cameron sits just two goals behind Charlie Curnow in the race for the Coleman Medal, but look for the gun Cats forward to sit atop of the leaderboard come the end of Saturday night’s clash against North Melbourne.
The struggling Roos are ripe for the picking, especially when it comes to Geelong’s firepower up forward.
Expect Cameron to dominate down at the Cattery, having kicked 10 goals in his last three games.
The McKay forward experiment will end
North Melbourne coach David Noble spun the magnets against Adelaide last week, swinging Ben McKay forward against Adelaide.
McKay only kicked one goal, while Taylor Walker took control at the other end of the ground so look for the talented tall to swing back forward.
With Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins to take care of, McKay and his fellow defenders will have their hands full.
Laurence Rosen
Gold Coast v Collingwood
Miller to have 25+ possessions and at least five clearances
Touk Miller has become one of the game’s elite over the past 18 months and he’s set to put Collingwood to the sword.
The Suns co-captain has led from the front in 2022, only dipping below 24 possessions on two occasions this season.
Collingwood tends not to tag opposition midfielders and has given up big numbers to numerous stars this year. Combined with the fact Miller has form in the wet (34 disposals, nine clearances in Round 9 against Fremantle), he'll be looking to dominate in the midfield once again.
Ginnivan to have at least three shots on goal
Young Magpie Jack Ginnivan has flown more under the radar in recent weeks, but he could well light up Metricon Stadium on Friday night.
The 19-year-old's only goalless came this season came in Round 11, but he’s had eight shots on goal in his last three games.
It’s expected to be wet conditions on Saturday night on the Gold Coast, and Ginnivan booted 2.2 in the slop against Fremantle earlier this year.
He also kicked 3.1 against the Suns when the two sides clashed earlier this season. He’s all set for a big game, and, at the very least, have three shots on goal.
Seb Mottram
Richmond v West Coast
Richmond to score 100+ points
Despite last week’s narrow loss to Geelong, right now the Tigers are playing some of their best footy all year.
Currently the third-highest scoring side in the competition, Richmond is averaging 13.9 goals a game.
On the other hand, West Coast are the worst defensive team in football, with opponents kicking over 16 goals per game against them.
This is the perfect storm for Richmond to run rampant at the MCG.
When these teams last met in Round 7, Tom Lynch kicked seven goals in a 165-56 thrashing.
The Eagles are a better team than they were at the time, but it won’t be enough to stop the Tigers from piling on a score.
Hurn to have 15+ disposals and 6+ marks
The veteran Eagle still has some flight left in him.
During West Coast’s nightmare season, Hurn has been consistent down back, doing his best to stabilise a flimsy Eagles defence.
This has led to the former skipper averaging a tick over 21 possessions a game to go along with 7.5 marks.
Richmond’s play style is likely to help these numbers, with the Tigers leading the competition with 69.6 clangers per game, likely resulting in plenty of footy for Hurn to get his hands on.
Expect him to hold his own in the tough matchup against Richmond.
Jack Makeham
GWS v Hawthorn
Coniglio to have 25+ disposals and kick at least one goal
GWS midfielder Stephen Coniglio has seen his form rise dramatically since interim coach Mark McVeigh has taken the reins.
From five games under McVeigh, Coniglio is yet to go goalless while averaging 31.6 disposals from those games.
With his influence and ability to gather positions trending upwards with the Giants using the corridor with more dare, don’t expect that to suddenly change against the Storm.
Coniglio should get enough footy inside 50 to have his sights on goals, while he’ll be one of the side’s most prolific ball-winners if his form continues.
Lewis to kick 2+ goals
Hawthorn forward Mitch Lewis has been a revelation this season, kicking 31 goals from just 10 games.
Averaging more than three goals a game, the 23-year-old has quickly become the Hawks’ number one target inside 50.
As GWS have failed to defend for much of the season, Lewis should have enough chances to hurt the opposition on the scoreboard this Sunday.
He’s only kicked less than two majors once in his last seven games, don’t expect that to suddenly change now.
Lachlan Geleit
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Fremantle v Port Adelaide
Darcy wins 30 hit-outs
Sean Darcy has won at least 30 hit-outs in every game bar one since Round 8 and is a lock to do so again against Port Adelaide.
The Power don’t play a recognised ruckman, meaning Jeremy Finlayson and Charlie Dixon will be competing against the 203cm, 112kg Freo monster.
Whether the ruck dominance translates to clearance control, who knows, it certainly didn’t against Carlton. But Darcy should coast to 30 hit-outs.
Wines for 25+ disposals
Ollie Wines has been in excellent form of late, clearing 25 disposals in every game since Round 9.
He traditionally plays well against Fremantle, averaging 31 in his last three games against them.
Expect the reigning Brownlow Medallist to have a big game on Sunday evening.
Nic Negrepontis
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