There is no such thing as a certainty in footy.
Or is there?
We’ve had certainties for Thursday, we have them for Friday night footy, but with seven other games in Round 17, we’ve taken a close look to come up with one certainty for each team for the remaining matches.
Take a look at our certainties for the rest of the weekend’s action.
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Collingwood v North Melbourne
Henry and Ginnivan to combine for 3+ goals
It’s a given every week that North Melbourne will concede plenty of goals, and Oliver Henry and Jack Ginnivan are good enough to put them to the sword.
Brody Mihocek could get Ben Mckay, who he’ll struggle to overcome, but both Henry and Ginnivan will be licking their lips.
They’ve each had six scoring shots total in their last two games, meaning if they kick straight, they should be able to easily account for three goals combined.
It’s just a matter of how much damage they can inflict on the already terrorised Roos’ backline.
North Melbourne to kick less than 70 points
There are not many things you’d want to declare as a sure thing for the Roos.
Having lost their last 11 by 47+ points, the only thing certain is they’re going to seriously struggle to score.
The Roos haven’t kicked over 60 points since Round 9 and it’s hard to see that changing on Saturday afternoon.
Collingwood has been very solid defensively as the season’s gone on, conceding no more than 77 points since Round 9.
The Roos would do very, very well to kick even a half-decent score.
Seb Mottram
Gold Coast v Richmond
Pickett to have 15+ disposals and take 3+ marks
Marlion Pickett has been superb for the Tigers in recent weeks.
Against West Coast last weekend, he had a career-high 25 disposals along with seven marks, six inside 50s and five tackles as one of his side’s very best.
That match took his season average to 17.2 touches as well as five marks and it is these two stats categories we will hone in on here.
Pickett finally gets the chance to wear the Indigenous jumper he designed with partner Jessica after missing out a few times this year.
Inspired by that, Pickett should take at least three marks and having picked up 15 or more disposals in eight of 11 games this year, he is primed to hit at least that tally again.
Ellis to have 15+ disposals
Former Tiger Brandon Ellis has been a fairly consistent performer for the Suns this season.
He is averaging 19.9 disposals in season 2022, falling under 15 touches just once in 15 outings.
In his two appearances against his former club, Ellis has picked up 17 and 28 disposals.
With that in mind, the premiership Tiger should find himself gathering at least 15 possessions on Saturday.
He may even find himself gracing the same wing as Pickett.
Andrew Slevison
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St Kilda v Fremantle
Gresham for 15+ disposals and a goal
Jade Gresham was one of St Kilda’s best in their win over Carlton last week.
The Saints ace gathered 29 possessions to go with eight score involvements, six clearances and five inside 50s to help his side beat the Blues.
Across the 2022 season, Gresham is averaging 24 disposals and a tick over a goal a game, collecting over 20 touches in 12 of 15 games.
The midfielder-forward has booted multiple goals six times this year and will be key to St Kilda’s chances of toppling Fremantle on Saturday night.
Gresham recorded 25 disposals and eight inside 50s against the Dockers in Round 2.
Lobb to kick 2+ goals
The Dockers tall is putting together a career-best year.
Rory Lobb, who keeps coming up in trade discussions, spearheaded Fremantle to victory over Port Adelaide last week.
The 29-year-old kicked a career-high five goals and is closing in on his highest goal tally in a single season.
In Fremantle’s previous meeting with the Saints earlier this year, Lobb booted two goals.
The 207cm forward-ruck will stretch a St Kilda defence without tall key defender Dougal Howard.
He’s managed two-plus goals on eight occasions in 2022.
Alex Zaia
Port Adelaide v GWS
Butters to contribute with 20+ disposals and 2+ inside 50s
The young gun has missed the last two games with a knee injury, going down early against Sydney in Round 14.
Before the injury, Zak Butters was averaging 21 possessions and 3.3 inside 50s a game in what has been arguably the best year of his career.
Now set to return against the Giants, Butters looks to get back on track with his stellar season.
The last time he matched up with GWS, Butters had an effortless 22 disposals and 2 inside 50s, one of his better games of 2021.
Now a significantly improved player, expect him to have a strong showing at home.
Hogan to kick 2+ goals
Despite the disappointing year so far for the Giants, Jesse Hogan has been an important source of scoring in their forward line.
The key forward is averaging 1.8 goals per game for the season, enough for a total of 22 majors, the second most of any GWS player behind only Toby Greene.
For his career, Hogan has performed well when taking on Port Adelaide, having multi-goal efforts in five of his eight matchups with the Power.
He has also been a key contributor to the improved play the Giants have shown as of late, kicking multiple goals in his last three games.
Don’t be surprised if Hogan plays a big role in taking the fight to Port Adelaide.
Jack Makeham
Brisbane v Essendon
Daniher to kick two or more goals
Joe Daniher would love nothing more than to have a big day out against his former side and help the Lions move onto equal points with the Cats and the Demons atop the ladder.
He’s slotted two goals each time in his two games against the Bombers while in Lions colours, and he shouldn’t have any issues doing it for a third time against Essendon’s younger and shorter defence.
The 28-year-old is yet to recapture his early season form after his shoulder injury in Round 7, but Sunday afternoon looms as the perfect time to remind the rest of the competition just how dangerous he can be.
Merrett to have 25+ disposals
With Darcy Parish out of the side for Sunday’s clash with the Lions, Zach Merrett should have no issues racking up at least 25 disposals for the Bombers.
In his last four games against the Lions, Merrett has averaged 29.8 disposals, and he’ll need to find that form again if his side are any chance of causing an upset at the Gabba.
And with the Lions missing one of their best stoppers in Jarrod Berry, he may be able to get right off the chain against Chris Fagan’s squad.
Sam Watson
Hawthorn v Adelaide
Lewis to kick two or more goals
Hawthorn forward Mitch Lewis has had a terrific season in the brown and gold, kicking 31 goals at an average of 2.8.
As the Crows have failed to defend for much of the season, Lewis should have enough chances to hurt the opposition on the scoreboard this Sunday.
The last time Lewis played the Crows he fired, kicking three goals from his four shots on goals.
After a quiet match against the Giants last week, he’ll be ready to fire up.
Laird to have 25 or more disposals
Rory Laird is one of the competition's best accumulators of the ball.
Averaging 33 disposals this year, the Crows midfielder is consistently finding the ball week in, week out.
In his last outing against the Hawks, the 28-year-old racked up 33 disposals, and against a Hawthorn midfield that doesn’t use a run-with player, Laird should have no worries finding it 25 times or more.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
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West Coast v Carlton
Naitanui to have 25+ hitouts
West Coast ruckman Nic Naitanui is one of the best at getting his hand to the ball in the competition, and the Eagles will need him to win taps more often than not to have a chance against the Blues.
Up against inexperienced ruck Tom De Koning, Naitanui will back himself in to be dominant at stoppages.
So far this season, Naitanui is yet to dip below 26 hit-outs, averaging 28.75 per outing.
Due to the advantages he has over his opponent, expect Naitanui to breeze past his season average thus far.
Walsh to have 30+ disposals
Carlton midfielder Sam Walsh has seen his form increase in recent weeks as he racks up plenty of footy for the navy blue.
Currently averaging 32.79 touches a game, Walsh has seen that figure increase to 34.17 per outing since Round 10.
Against a depleted Eagles on-ball brigade, Walsh should help himself to plenty of footy and feature near the top of the ball-winning tally.
Expect him to make a big impact on Sunday evening.
Lachlan Geleit
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