We’re 17 weeks through the AFL season and we’re starting to get an idea of how finals will shape up.
With huge results coming to the fore across the weekend, here’s what we learned from the nine games just gone.
Geelong have what it takes to win it all
Geelong sent out an ominous warning on Thursday night, taking care of premiership favourites Melbourne at home in what many think was a Grand Final preview.
With both sides looking all but certain to finish in the top four, there’s no doubting that they are well in the mix to go all the way.
While some would point to this Cats side and reason that they’ve often gone so far without getting the job done when it matters, something feels different about this side in 2022.
Having rolled out much of the same sides across the last handful of years, the Cats have genuinely found a few players this season which has taken them to another level in Tyson Stengle, Sam De Koning, Tom Atkins and Brad Close.
With this crop taking their game to new heights, suddenly Geelong has a remarkably even spread across the ground and their bottom half a dozen players are all quality.
Could it be the difference in what gets this Geelong side another premiership?
That’s probably game over for the Bulldogs
After making last year’s Grand Final, it appears that the Bulldogs will miss the 2022 finals series.
While they’re still technically alive just a game out of the eight at 8-8, their run home suggests that they may have fired their final shot this season.
With games against the Saints, Demons, Geelong, and Fremantle in the next month, the Dogs probably need to win at least three of those if they’re a chance to feature in September.
While it feels wrong to write off a team with so much talent, it looks as though there’s simply too much ground to make up for Luke Beveridge’s side to return to finals action.
This call could come back to haunt in a few weeks’ time, but for now, their papers appear marked.
Collingwood won't go anywhere without Darcy Moore
Collingwood will be breathing a sigh of relief after getting out of jail against North Melbourne on Saturday, a game they could’ve so easily lost.
The key reason why the upset so nearly occurred was a lack of size in defence as Nick Larkey helped himself to a five-goal haul against undersized opponents.
While the likes of Jeremy Howe and Nathan Murphy fought valiantly, it could get ugly for them coming up against a more potent tall forward line without Moore by their side.
The Pies are incredibly lucky that Moore will return in 2022, but they’d be desperate for him to get up for next Saturday against Adelaide given that they have a severe lack of tall defensive stocks to pick from.
With names like Taylor Walker, Peter Wright, Charlie Dixon and Todd Marshall set to face the Pies in the next three weeks alone, Moore holds the key to the Pies continuing their finals charge or completely blowing it.
All eyes will be on training at the AIA Centre this week to see how the All-Australian Pie shapes up.
His club’s hopes rest on his shoulders.
Gold Coast’s luck has finally turned and their season is alive
After losing in heartbreaking fashion in consecutive weeks to Port Adelaide and Collingwood, Gold Coast’s luck was bound to turn in their favour in a close game.
Unluckily for Richmond, that came on Saturday night as the Suns roared home from 40 points down to win after the siren courtesy of a clutch Noah Anderson goal.
While they’re somewhat off the pace, the win for the Suns takes them to 8-8 and just one game out of the top eight, somewhere they still have hopes of finishing given their run home.
With clashes against Essendon, West Coast, Hawthorn and North Melbourne to come, Gold Coast could win those four to get themselves to 12 wins and hope to pick off one of Geelong (at home) or Brisbane in the Q Clash to make finals.
While it’s a tough task, they’re genuinely still in it, and wouldn’t it be great to see them feature in September for the first time this season.
Could Saturday signal a change in fortune for the much-maligned club?
All footy fans would hope so.
Essendon has turned a corner
Essendon was forced to ask themselves some serious questions after a horror start to the season, and it looks as though they’ve found a few answers in recent weeks.
While they’re not at the level of last year’s finals finishing side, the Bombers have found their attacking flair in the last month as they’ve peeled off impressive wins against the Saints, Swans and Lions.
Their win against Brisbane was perhaps their most impressive of them all considering the Lions had only lost one home and away game at the Gabba since Round 5 2019 before Sunday.
Although Brisbane had some key outs, their midfield was well and truly still intact and it was there where the Dons were able to get the upper hand despite missing Darcy Parish with injury.
Jye Caldwell had one of the best games of his career quelling the influence of Lachie Neale while helping himself to a goal and 26 disposals, while Peter Wright goes from strength to strength with another bag of goals.
Although they’ll end up ruing 2022 as a missed opportunity, they could do worse than finish the year well to take momentum into a big ’23 campaign.
It’s impressive to see how they haven’t fallen away despite their September hopes being dashed.
There’s plenty to work with at Tullamarine.
It’s a big week for St Kilda...again
We said last week that Round 17 was the biggest for St Kilda, and it looks like the pressure will be right on them again in Round 18.
Having lost to Fremantle by 41 points on Saturday, the Saints sit outside the eight with a 9-7 record.
Given fellow nine-win side Richmond has a far softer run home, the Saints will need to pick off every 50-50 game if they’re a chance to make finals.
On Friday night up against a Bulldogs side – who still have a slither of September hopes – St Kilda simply must win to keep their finals chances alive.
After sitting in the top four ahead of the bye, it’d be a pretty grim slide for the Saints to miss out on the top eight altogether.
Marvel Stadium is set to host what effectively is an elimination final.
Things are starting to get interesting as the season heats up.