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The win-loss stats after a coach departs a club

2022-07-12T18:09+10:00

David Noble has now left North Melbourne, but what does his departure mean for their next game?

The Kangaroos meet Richmond at Marvel Stadium on Saturday in what is shaping as an intriguing contest between a side that last weekend almost broke a lengthy losing streak and a team that lost the unlosable match.

Since 2012, clubs are 5-7 after a coach has left and a caretaker has stepped in.

The average winning margin in those five victories is 38.2 points. The average losing margin for the seven defeats is 40.2 points.

The last time the Roos changed coaches mid-season was in 2019 when Brad Scott stepped down and Rhyce Shaw took over.

Coincidentally, Shaw’s first game at the helm was against Richmond and they pulled off a win to the tune of 37 points at the same venue. Tigers defender Robbie Tarrant was playing for the Roos that day.

North had three wins from 10 matches to their name that season and the Tigers sat fourth with seven wins.

This year, the Roos have one win from 16 games and the Tigers have won nine times and sit eighth. The situation is eerily similar.

So how will it play out for North and interim coach Leigh Adams?

(Note: This is not taking into account coaching changes at season’s end or caretaker performances for one-off games due to things like COVID and illness).

2022

Leon Cameron left GWS. Mark McVeigh took over. Giants beat West Coast by 52 points. WON.

2021

Nathan Buckley stepped down at Collingwood. Robert Harvey took over. Magpies lost to Fremantle by 12 points. LOST.

2019

Brad Scott stepped down at North Melbourne. Rhyce Shaw took over. Roos beat Richmond by 37 points. WON.

Brendon Bolton was sacked by Carlton. David Teague took over. Blues beat Brisbane by 15 points. WON.

Alan Richardson resigned at St Kilda. Brett Ratten took over. Saints beat the Bulldogs by 27 points. WON.

Ross Lyon sacked by Fremantle. David Hale took over. Dockers lost to Port Adelaide by 43 points. LOST.

2017

Rodney Eade departed Gold Coast. Dean Solomon took over. Suns lost to Brisbane by 58 points. LOST.

2015

Mick Malthouse sacked by Carlton. John Barker took over. Blues lost to Sydney by 60 points. LOST.

James Hird resigned at Essendon. Matthew Egan took over. Bombers lost to Gold Coast by 2 points. LOST.

2013

Mark Neeld sacked by Melbourne. Neil Craig took over. Demons lost to St Kilda by 35 points. LOST.

Michael Voss stepped down at Brisbane. Mark Harvey took over. Lions beat GWS by 60 points. WON.

2012

Matthew Primus sacked by Port Adelaide. Garry Hocking took over. Power lost to Hawthorn by 72 points. LOST.

In conclusion, if looking at this over the course of the last decade, the odds are slightly with the Tigers as caretaker sides have a 41.7 per cent winning strike rate, while the other team has won 58.3 per cent of matches.

However, judging by more recent times, it bodes well for the Roos as caretakers have gone 4-1 in the last five instances.

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