There is no such thing as a certainty in footy.
Or is there?
We’ve had certainties for Friday night footy, but with eight other games remaining in Round 19, we’ve taken a close look to come up with one certainty for each team for the remaining matches.
Take a look at our certainties for the rest of the weekend’s action.
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North Melbourne v Hawthorn
Zurhaar to kick 2+ goals
In a season where North Melbourne has scored 100 points less points than the next lowest team, Cam Zurhaar’s ability to hit the scoreboard has flown under the radar.
He has averaged 1.8 goals per game this season and only failed to kick multiple goals three times since Round 6.
Expect Zurhaar to hit the scoreboard against the Hawks in a winnable game for the Kangaroos.
Sicily to have 20+ disposals and take 6+ marks
James Sicily has failed to achieve this stat line only once this season and it was thanks to some torrential rain.
The likely All-Australian defender is yet to dip below 20 disposals this season and averages nine marks per game.
Against a North Melbourne team that turns the ball over consistently, except Sicily to intercept freely.
Nic Negrepontis
Sydney v Adelaide
Papley to kick 2+ goals
Tom Papley has been on fire in recentl weeks and he’ll make life difficult for the Crows backline on Saturday afternoon.
The small forward has kicked multiple goals in three of his last four games, having 18 scoring shots in that period.
Adelaide’s key defenders can hold up better than many think, but a player like Papley, who is able to kick start scoring chains and keep working to get involved in the play again, will be the most dangerous prospect.
The 26-year-old should keep his exciting run of form going with a strong performance at home.
Laird to have 30+ possessions and 5+ clearances
It doesn’t look a good thing on paper, but Rory Laird has only dropped below 30 touches twice in 2022 and will surpass that mark on Saturday.
Laird has only continued to grow in his second season as a fully-fledged midfielder, becoming one of the elite ball-winners of the competition.
However, the 28-year-old doesn’t have the damage of some of the game’s best, potentially a reason as to why clubs don’t put much defensive intent into him.
Swans tagger Ryan Clarke will also likely spend time on Jordan Dawson, giving Laird another great look to hit 30 touches and have an influence in the midfield with at least five clearances.
Seb Mottram
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Port Adelaide v Geelong
Rozee to have 20+ disposals and kick a goal
Connor Rozee continued his career-best year against Melbourne last time out.
The 22-year-old was the Power’s best in their loss to the Demons, collecting a career-high 33 disposals to go with six score involvements, four clearances and a goal.
Rozee’s midfield performances have caught the eye of the coaches.
The Power ace is up to sixth in the AFL coaches’ award after polling six votes against the Demons.
Rozee starred in the Power’s loss to Geelong in Round 13 last year, kicking a career-best five goals.
Stengle to kick 2+ goals
The Power have struggled to contain small forwards in recent times.
That was evident in their loss to Melbourne, with livewire Kysaiah Pickett helping himself to six majors.
Stengle has kicked multiple goals on 10 occasions this season, including a three-goal outing against the Power in Round 10.
The 23-year-old will be out to impress on his return to South Australia.
The ex-Crow, who got his chance at the Cats after shining for SANFL side Woodville-West Torrens last year, has kicked 33 goals at just under two a game.
Alex Zaia
Brisbane v Gold Coast
Zorko to gather 20+ disposals
The Lions’ skipper is going to come back firing.
Dayne Zorko has been sidelined due to injury since a five-minute stint against the Bulldogs in Round 16.
In his absence, Brisbane has looked shaky down back, exemplified by the loss to the 14th-placed Essendon when conceding 100 points.
Zorko’s steady hand will be a vital injection to the Lion’s backline, and he will undoubtedly look to raise his game to help get his side back on track.
For the season, Brisbane’s captain is averaging 19.7 possessions per game, and has had over 20 in more than half of his appearances this year.
Expect him to exceed that mark once again with a strong return against Gold Coast.
Anderson to have 22+ disposals and take 3+ marks
Noah Anderson is going to stuff the stat sheet once again this week.
The midfielder was one of the few bright spots in Gold Coast’s brutal loss to Essendon last round, securing 24 possessions (including 19 kicks) to go along with six marks.
Now taking on Brisbane in a match-up that is vital to keeping the Sun’s dwindling finals hopes alive, Anderson must continue that form.
The young gun has been stellar for Gold Coast in his third year, backing up his breakout 2021 season with improvements across all facets of the game.
Anderson’s numbers have been stellar this season, averaging 25.4 disposals, 18.2 kicks and 4.3 marks.
He is undoubtedly going to play a big role in the Suns taking the fight to the Lions at the Gabba.
Jack Makeham
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
Smith to pick up 25+ disposals
Bulldog Bailey Smith made an instant impact on return last week against St Kilda, collecting 29 disposals and offering his side plenty of run and dash through the midfield.
Without Smith, the Bulldogs struggled and they’ll be thrilled to have their young gun available and firing.
Averaging 31.4 disposals per game this year, Smith has become a prolific accumulator as he sits sixth on touches per game league-wide.
Given he had 33 disposals in Round 1 against the Demons, Smith should eclipse that 25-touch marker if he’s offered similar space this time around.
Petracca to have 30+ disposals
Christian Petracca loves playing against the Bulldogs.
That might be an obvious statement given he won last year’s Norm Smith Medal in the Grand Final win, but his stats across the last three games against Luke Beveridge's side tell a strong story.
Averaging 36 disposals and 1.66 goals a game across those three appearances, Petracca will be hoping to produce a similar output this time around.
With the Bulldogs proving that they won’t run with the superstar, expect Petracca to have a huge impact on this game if the Dees are to take the chocolates in the Grand Final rematch.
Lachlan Geleit
Carlton v GWS
Matthew Kennedy to have 20+ disposals
Every single player in the AFL loves to play well against their old team and Matthew Kennedy will be keen to continue his strong run of form against the Giants on Sunday.
In his four games against his former side since switching to the Blues Kennedy is averaging 22 disposals, but he’s taken his game to another level under Michael Voss this season.
He’s only registered under 20 disposals once in 2022, and with the respect his peers in the midfield command, he’ll have no troubles getting at least 20 touches on Sunday.
Harry Himmelberg to have 20+ disposals
A shift into defence has seen Harry Himmelberg register career highs in disposals multiple times this season, and with Carlton’s strength in the midfield, one would imagine the ball will be in Himmelberg’s area quite often on Sunday.
Taking kick outs always helps rack up disposals, but Himmelberg has also shown prominence as an interceptor in 2022, and if he can find his groove against the Blues, 20 touches will be well within reach.
He’s averaging nearly 25 disposals since Round 10, and hopefully his Sherrin-winning abilities are on full show at Marvel Stadium this weekend.
Sam Watson
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Collingwood v Essendon
Jack Ginnivan to kick 2+ goals
Collingwood small forward Jack Ginnivan has consistently found a way to hit the scoreboard in 2022, kicking goals in 14 of his 15 appearances in the black and white.
In nine of those games, the goalsneak has booted two or more, with his best return coming against the Bombers on Anzac Day with five.
Up against Essendon again, you’d be a brave punter to bet against the 19-year-old given how much it appears the spotlight and attention doesn’t affect him.
Although he won’t be getting those high free kicks that he’s become renowned for, this is the perfect stage for the youngster to prove that he’s not a one-trick pony.
While he may not kick a handful this time around, expect Ginnivan to bob up around goals and slot two or more majors for Collingwood.
Lachlan Geleit
Stringer to kick 2+ goals
Essendon’s Jake Stringer loves the big stage and Sunday against Collingwood at the MCG provides him with just that.
Stringer has kicked 18 goals (10 behinds) from 10 matches this year including 4.2 against Gold Coast last week.
The 28-year-old has kicked 10.6 from his last five meetings with the Magpies, most recently returning 3.2 in this year’s Round 6 loss.
He has two goalless outings in 2022 but has kicked two or more in six of his appearances, so bagging at least a pair should be right in his range.
Andrew Slevison
West Coast v St Kilda
Hill to gather 20+ disposals
Outside runner Brad Hill is set to return to familiar surroundings when the Saints fly to Perth to take on the Eagles on Sunday afternoon.
The ex-Docker averages 24.5 disposals a game at Optus Stadium and St Kilda will be desperate for him to produce similar output against the Eagles.
From his two appearances against Adam Simpson’s side last year, Hill picked up 26 disposals on both occasions.
While he had just the 11 disposals last week against the Bulldogs, expect Hill to return to form on the open expanses of West Coast’s home ground.
Lachlan Geleit
Kelly to have 25+ touches
After St Kilda’s difficult week, you can imagine they’ll come out breathing fire on Sunday, like they did in Round 16 against Carlton.
In that game, some of the Blues midfielders still got plenty of footy, but were forced to handball more often as they dealt with the pressure, with the Saints not necessarily getting to the ball first.
A similar occurrence should happen at Optus Stadium. Tim Kelly has gone under 25 possessions in his last two, but his hands are as quick as anyone’s and he’ll hit that mark against the Saints.
Seb Mottram
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