Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for Friday night’s clash between Melbourne and Collingwood:
Fritsch to kick multiple goals
Bayley Fritsch is leading Melbourne’s goalkicking with 43 majors so far in 2022.
The Demons forward’s marking ability, work at ground level and lethal finishing makes him a tough match-up.
Fritsch is coming off a three-goal showing in last week’s win over Fremantle – the 13th time he’s kicked multiple goals this season.
Melbourne’s most dangerous forward is averaging a tick over two goals per match.
Petracca to have 20+ disposals and 4 score involvements
Christian Petracca is one of the most damaging players in the competition.
Last year’s Norm Smith Medallist finds plenty of the ball and quite often hurts the opposition with his disposals.
The Melbourne star has recorded the equal-most score involvements in the competition this year averaging 8.4 per game.
Petracca is also ranked first across the league for inside 50s and goal assists.
The Magpies would want to quell Petracca’s influence, though that’s easier said than done.
Alex Zaia
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Pendlebury to have 18+ disposals with a combined total of 8+ inside 50s, clearances and tackles
Scott Pendlebury has fallen below his season average over the last two weeks.
The Collingwood captain averages 22 disposals but has picked up only 16 in each of his past two outings.
However, with Taylor Adams out of the side for Friday night’s clash with Melbourne, he should shoulder more responsibility in midfield.
Pendlebury has been in consistent nick against the Demons of late, averaging 25.2 touches, 3.6 inside 50s, 3.2 clearances and 3.2 tackles over his last five meetings.
With a vacancy in the middle to fill, we’re going with Pendles to pick up at least 18 touches and have a combined total of at least 8 inside 50s, clearances and tackles.
Elliott and De Goey to combine for 3+ goals
Jamie Elliott has been a consistent source of goals for the Magpies in recent weeks.
Over the course of the year, he has kicked 17 from 13 games, with 12 of those coming in his last seven.
He kicked 3.1 in the win over the Dees in Round 13.
Jordan De Goey returned with two goals and 23 touches last week.
This season he has kicked 14.17 goals from 14 outings.
He was goalless in this fixture last time, but the Pies are going to need him to step up.
The duo of Elliott and De Goey will need to combine for 3+ goals if Collingwood is to kick a winning score.
Andrew Slevison