There is no such thing as a certainty in footy.
Or is there?
We’ve had certainties for Friday night footy, but with eight other games remaining in Round 22, we’ve taken a close look to come up with one certainty for each team for the remaining matches.
Take a look at our certainties for the rest of the weekend’s action.
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Western Bulldogs v GWS
Macrae 31+ disposals
Western Bulldogs midfielder Jack Macrae is ranked third this season competition-wide for disposals per game.
Averaging 30.8 touches from 20 games, Macrae is a renowned ball-winner, but he’s seen those figures dip in recent weeks as he’s only surpassed 30 disposals once from his last five games.
Against a GWS side that he’s picked averaged 38.5 disposals against from his last two games, expect Macrae to top his season average.
A return to form is on the cards.
Hogan 2+ goals
GWS forward Jesse Hogan will be required to carry his side’s scoring load against the Bulldogs with superstar Toby Greene out of the side.
From 16 games this season, Hogan has booted multiple majors in 10 of those outings and he’d hope to make it 11 on Saturday afternoon.
Considering the last clash between these sides was a shootout at 125-105, expect the big forward to get plenty of opportunities in front of goal, particularly against a Dogs defence that’s had its woes this season.
Hogan could have a day out.
Lachlan Geleit
Adelaide v North Melbourne
Dawson 20+ disposals and 15+ kicks
Jordan Dawson’s start to his Adelaide career has been an impressive one.
Coming off halfback, Dawson is averaging career highs across the board, highlighted by his 24.3 possessions and 18.4 kicks per game.
Dawson’s kicking numbers aren’t empty stats either, with his dangerous boot leading him to be ranked second in metres gained in the entire AFL.
The last time he took on the Kangaroos, Dawson breezed to a tidy 29 disposals and 23 kicks and was clearly one of the Crows’ best.
Expect a repeat performance at Adelaide Oval.
Larkey boots multiple goals
Nick Larkey was phenomenal in North Melbourne’s spirited loss to Sydney last week.
The forward snagged seven majors in what was easily one of his best performances for the season, playing a key role in the Kangaroos taking the fight to a formidable Swans outfit.
Larkey has been the most effective threat in the North Melbourne forward line this year, averaging exactly two goals per game.
With eight multi-goal games this season already, Larkey will look to have one more against an Adelaide defence that allows the fourth most points per game.
Jack Makeham
Gold Coast v Geelong
Rowell to finish with 15+ disposals and 5+ tackles
The Suns young gun is a tackling machine.
Rowell is ranked fourth across the competition for tackles this season, averaging seven per game.
The former No.1 pick is strong at the contest – he’s inside the top 10 league wide for contested possessions and clearances.
Rowell is coming off 15-disposal, six-tackle and five-clearance outing in last week’s narrow loss to Hawthorn.
The 23-year-old’s work at the coalface will be important against a seasoned Geelong midfield.
Dangerfield to have 20+ touches and 3+ clearances
Dangerfield is back after missing Geelong’s win over St Kilda last week.
The Brownlow Medallist will look to end the home and away season strongly with finals on the horizon.
Across 13 games this season the star Cat is averaging 21.6 disposals and 5.6 clearances per game.
Dangerfield was one of four changes for the club’s trip north to face the Suns as the Cats look to make it 12 straight wins.
Alex Zaia
Melbourne v Carlton
Salem to pick up at least 18 disposals
Christian Salem has been quietly going about his business for the Demons in recent weeks.
Not including Round 1 when he got injured, the 27-year-old has averaged 19.8 disposals across his nine other outings.
In six career games against the Blues, Salem averages 23 touches, so judging by that he should again be busy in Saturday night’s crunch clash.
The premiership half-back flanker is primed to pick up at least 18 touches at the MCG.
Andrew Slevison
Saad 20+ disposals
Carlton defender Adam Saad has had a stellar season with the running machine in All-Australian calculations.
From 19 outings in 2022, the 28-year-old is averaging almost 22 disposals a game and he should go near that figure in this one.
Considering Melbourne let dangerous defenders wheel and deal as shown by Nick Daicos’ 31 disposals last week, don’t expect Saad to receive any extra attention.
Operating in relative freedom, Saad should breeze his way to the 20-disposal mark.
Lachlan Geleit
Fremantle v West Coast
Barrass to finish with 4+ marks and 4+ intercepts
The premiership Eagles defender has been touted as a potential All-Australian this year.
In a struggling Eagles outfit, Barrass has been a shining light down back.
Barrass is averaging 7.5 marks per game this season and is ranked in the top 10 across the league for intercepts and one percenters.
In West Coast’s loss to Adelaide last week, the 26-year-old took 10 marks and had nine intercepts to be one of his side’s best players on the day.
Alex Zaia
Ryan for at least 20 disposals
Luke Ryan has had an excellent year for Fremantle across half back and should continue that form in the Western Derby.
He has passed the 20-disposal threshold in his last four games and only failed to reach the mark twice since Round 10.
Freo should control the game and Ryan will find plenty of footy across half back.
Nic Negrepontis
Richmond v Hawthorn
Mitchell to have 25 or more disposals
The Brownlow Medallist is in the midst of his eighth-straight season averaging over 25 possessions a game, a fair stat!
Richmond doesn’t usually deploy a run-with player in their side, so the midfielder should have no worries in accumulating 25 touches.
If Hawthorn is going to throw a spanner in the works in terms of Richmond’s finals aspirations, expect Tom Mitchell to have his hands all over the football.
Nankervis to win hit-out battle
Toby Nankervis has been one of Richmond’s most consistent players this season.
With Ned Reeves ruled out of Hawthorn’s side for the season, it leaves Ben McEvoy to shoulder the ruck load and he’s not renowned for being a overly prolific hit-out winners.
In a crunch clash, expect Nankervis to continue his recent form and take care of business in the ruck.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
Sydney v Collingwood
Collingwood to take less than 75 marks
Former Magpies assistant Brenton Sanderson suggested the styles of both Sydney and Collingwood are a big contrast, and it could help the Swans get the win.
Sydney is the second best side in the competition for preventing opposition marks, while in their losses, Collingwood takes an average of 20 fewer marks than their opponents.
Craig McRae’s side is averaging 82.5 marks per game this season. You can never back them to lose, but the Magpies will need to find a way to win against the odds on Sunday, and they’ll likely have to do it without control of the footy.
Parker to have 25+ disposals, 6+ clearances
The Magpies generally let opposition midfielders run free, and Luke Parker is set to be the big beneficiary.
Parker has been the in-form Sydney midfielder ahead of Chad Warner and Callum Mills in recent weeks, gathering 28 disposals or more in four of his last five games.
In the last four weeks, Collingwood has allowed an opposition midfielder to have at least 33 touches. McRae’s side also doesn’t rely on clearances and will likely lose that stat against a hardened Swans midfield, all of which is in the favour of Parker having a big game.
Seb Mottram
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Merrett to have 25+ disposals and 6+ inside 50s
Zach Merrett has once again been a shining light in a largely disappointing season for Essendon. However, he and most of his midfield cohort had a tough game last Saturday against the Giants when they were beaten around the ball.
We’re backing Merrett to respond to this week with pride on the line and plenty of momentum to take into the 2023 season. The Power have a tough on-ball unit, but Merrett will rely on his inside bulls to feed the ball out, and if they can match the Power on the inside, the Bombers and Merrett should have good looks going inside 50.
He’s had 25+ disposals and 6+ inside 50s in four of his last five games and should return to his dominant ways on Sunday.
Dixon kicks 2+ goals
Charlie Dixon has been the definition of consistency for Port Adelaide this year.
The Power sorely missed the big forward in the first half of the season, however since his Round 11 return, Dixon hasn’t been kept goalless once.
He looked dangerous early in last week’s matchup with the Tigers, snagging a pair of goals in the first term before Richmond kicked into gear.
Now facing an Essendon backline that hasn’t been able to do much on the defensive end, Dixon is positioned well to have a big game.
Expect the veteran to play a key role in the matchup at Marvel.
Seb Mottram and Jack Makeham
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