There’s just one home and away round remaining as we’ve made it through a gruelling 22 weeks of the season.
With the end near and the ladder starting to lock into place, here’s what we learned from the weekend’s results.
The gap is widening from Geelong to next best
We’ve known for a fair while now that Geelong is the number one seed, but number two has never seemed so far apart.
Entering the round, it was Collingwood holding second spot, but you’ll be hard pressed to find many with a platform consider them genuine contenders.
Melbourne’s best can challenge anyone, but they haven’t found that more than once since the bye.
Sydney has some eye-catching form, but like Brisbane and Fremantle, have their doubters.
With just one round left before the home and away season wraps up, this is the Cats’ premiership to lose given how well they’re tracking.
We’ve seen similar storylines of teams holding this level of dominance before falling in September – see Richmond in 2018 and Essendon in 2001 – but surely Chris Scott and his side are experienced enough to at least get themselves to the decider.
One thing is for sure though, the chasing pack would want to begin closing fast because this Geelong side seems to be pulling away from the peloton with pace.
Carlton has no one to blame but themselves
Eight points up with three minutes remaining, Carlton had one hand on a finals berth for the first time since 2013.
Obviously, we know how it ended, but it’s hard to say anything but the Blues cost themselves.
While multiple moments led up to Melbourne snatching the lead in the dying moment, the one that’ll haunt Carlton fans was Matt Owies’ missed short kick to Adam Saad on the wing.
Should Owies hit that 25-metre pass, Saad would’ve run the clock down for an extra 10 seconds before kicking to another spare or heading down the line to a contest.
With probably less than 30 seconds left remaining post that hypothetical kick, surely the Blues win.
Michael Voss said post-game that the learnings of the last two minutes can “only be a good thing” for his developing side, but ultimately it could be what costs them a finals finish.
They should already be gearing up for a September assault, but now Carlton fans nervously await another week of results.
They have no one to blame but themselves at Ikon Park.
Cam Rayner has arrived
Former no. 1 pick Cam Rayner has endured an up and down start to his career, but Friday’s performance showed what he is capable of at the level.
The forward/mid has had his doubters over the last few years, particularly after he missed the entirety of 2021 with an ACL injury.
His match-winning four-goal, 18-disposal hand in the win over the Saints may have booked his side a top-four spot and you could easily say that they don’t pick up the four points unless he has his big game.
Perhaps the reasoning behind those doubting Rayner is his likeness to superstars of the competition in Christian Petracca, Dustin Martin and Jordan De Goey … but he does genuinely share similar traits.
While he may never have the tank to play full-time midfield, Rayner is an elite finisher, has explosive power and could become Brisbane’s most important player forward of centre.
That’s saying something considering the talent the Lions have in the half of the ground, but his ceiling could be higher than all of his forward teammates.
More performances like that could go a long way in securing Brisbane their first premiership in two decades.
Let’s see if he can continue this upwards trajectory.
No one will want to play Richmond in September
After weeks of uncertainty, Richmond has finally booked their September ticket.
While they’ve proven inconsistent in the back of the year (see losses to North Melbourne and Gold Coast), their best is almost as good as any and that was proven with their 128-67 win over Hawthorn on Sunday.
Although the Hawks sit 13th, their percentage of more than 90 proves they’re no easy beats, putting them away in that fashion could be a sign of things to come.
With the likes of Shai Bolton and Tom Lynch in career-best form, it wouldn’t shock many to see the Tigers beat anyone on their day in September, particularly if Dustin Martin comes back.
The Bulldogs proved you can win it from outside the top four in 2016, and this Richmond side is probably the only outfit you feel can repeat that history this time around.
There’s going to be an unlucky side that faces them in an elimination final.
Luke Davies-Uniacke has superstar potential
North Melbourne midfielder Luke Davies-Uniacke is seriously flying under the radar.
It doesn’t help that he’s playing for a team that looks likely to win its second-straight wooden spoon, but this kid is a star already.
After a purple patch of form from Round 16 to 18 where he was probably his side’s best in each game, ‘LDU’ topped that with an even better outing against the Crows on Saturday.
While he ended with an impressive one goal and 37 disposals, it was his first half that was borderline the best of any individual player this season.
In the first two quarters, the young Roo had seven centre bounce clearances, 24 disposals, seven inside 50s, 424 metres gained and five score involvements – utterly ridiculous numbers.
Coming into the prime of his career, Davies-Uniacke is a player North Melbourne fans can be seriously excited about what he could become.
Potentially playing under Alastair Clarkson from 2023 onwards, the sky is the limit for the 23-year-old.
It’s a big week for Carlton
There hasn’t been a more obvious candidate for this all season, clearly, it is a monster week for Carlton.
They should be locked into playing finals already, but somehow, some way they’ve lost three-straight games and will miss September football if they lose in Round 23 and the Bulldogs win.
Given that the Dogs head in favourites in their clash against Hawthorn in Launceston, it looks like the equation is simple for the Blues – win and you’re in, lose and you’re out.
Up against a Collingwood side that needs to win to make the top four, it won’t be an easy task particularly given that they lost to the Magpies in Round 11.
It’s all come down to this for one of the biggest clubs in the land.
Literally, all eyes will be on the MCG next Sunday at 3:20 pm.
Let’s see what this side is truly made of.