Nathan Buckley has assessed his expectation meter for all 18 AFL clubs.
Prior to the 2022 season, Buckley forecast the amount of wins each club would have and what his expectations would be of them.
Now he has decided whether they have met, exceeded or failed expectations.
In the first of a three-part series, he will take a look at six clubs starting from the middle of the ladder and working our way out.
See Buckley’s expectation meter from SEN’s Whateley for Sydney, GWS, Melbourne, West Coast, Geelong and North Melbourne below.
THE EXPECTATION METER FOR CARLTON, ST KILDA, BULLDOGS, PORT, RICHMOND AND GOLD COAST
THE EXPECTATION METER FOR BRISBANE, HAWTHORN, FREMANTLE, ADELAIDE, COLLINGWOOD AND ESSENDON
(16-6, 3rd) - Met expectations
“I had them minimum 14 and maximum 17. They were at the top end of meeting my expectations.
“At the beginning of the year I had them as the team that I thought by this stage would be the major contender to Melbourne’s premiership prospects.
“I think Geelong have taken that mantle. It’s probably Geelong and Melbourne, but I have Sydney right up there.
“They came late. Even two-thirds though the year I thought they were middling, they weren’t quite nailing it.
“That last six or seven weeks it’s really come and it’s come off the back of really good forward pressure, a focus on getting after the ball-carrier when the opposition have it.
“That intensity in their pressure around the ball has risen their game to another level both offensively and defensively.
“They’re in really good shape.”
(6-16, 16th) - Failed expectations
“I thought they’d win as little as 10 and as many as 14.
“Lots of talent on the list, but they were just unable to get it to gel often enough.
“Clearly they had their personal issues and injury concerns. Sometimes you can get the tipping point where that’s just unassailable and you can’t beat that.
“But to only win six games is well and truly unders.”
(16-6, 2nd) - Met expectations
“I had them minimum 15, maximum 18.
“They had their troubles halfway through the year. They went into Round 1 without only two of their back six/seven.
“They look as good now as they did earlier in the year. Their last couple of performances have been really strong.
“They seem like they’re up and about, they’ve got a bit of zap, and that energy will stand them in good stead.
“The flag is there to be won, but I thought they met expectations throughout the home and away season.”
(2-20, 17th) - Failed expectations
“I had them as little as eight wins and as many as 16.
“They were the team most under expectation for me. I had them as one of the swingers.
“There was some real personnel issues through the season. They completely capitulated.
“To only win two games… there’s a bit of work to be done. There will be some regeneration, but wow, you wouldn’t have thought they would have gone to the depths of the list that they had to go.
“But even having said that, to have only got two wins up is a massive underachievement.”
(18-4, 1st) - Met/exceeded expectations
“18 wins was the top of what I had them, between 14 and 18.
“They met expectations, which is a bit rough. I probably have them right up the top of meeting expectations and right at the bottom of exceeding.
“You couldn’t have asked for any more from them. Off the field, on the field.
“Players like Jeremy Cameron having a career-best year, Tyson Stengle comes in and plays his role remarkably well, Brad Close keeps going from strength to strength, Sam De Koning down back, Zach Guthrie has become a constant.
“Dangerfield, Selwod, Smith, Hawkins, keep going. They’ve done really well with their list management.
“They’ve qualified exactly where they want to be.”
(2-20, 18th) - Failed expectations
“It was always going to be a tough year for North Melbourne.
“They weren’t expected to go as well as West Coast.
“They just weren’t able to find any sustainable, consistent form. They have found some players in the second half of the year and that comes from development. It takes time.
“They were underachievers this year, even against the fairly moderate expectations.”