Former Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley has run his eye over his old side’s upcoming Qualifying Final clash with Geelong.
The Cats have won one of their eight Qualifying Finals under coach Chris Scott and come up against a plucky Pies team that never expected to be in this position.
Buckley believes their start could decide the match, with Geelong slow off the mark in two of their last three Qualifying Final losses, as well as their earlier clash with the Magpies in Round 3.
“It’s going to be about the start, predominantly for Geelong,” Buckley told SEN Breakfast.
“I see this as largely a 50-50 game. Geelong needs to get off to a good start. They are 1 and 7 in Qualifying Finals … and that was a two-point win over Hawthorn in 2016.
“The last two have been games away at Adelaide Oval and Port Adelaide have knocked them over, but two of the last three they have been jumped in these games.
“There is a psychological element to this and it will be spoken about as we get closer to the game.
“Eight times Chris Scott has put his side in the top four, that’s pretty amazing, and it either sets up your September (if you win) or makes it bloody impossible (if you lose).
“I do see it as a 50-50 game. The last time Collingwood met Geelong in this game was in 2019 and it was Collingwood as the fourth placed side and Geelong as the first placed side – and they got jumped.
“They were five goals behind five minutes into the second quarter.
“Geelong worked their way back into the game, but it was a narrow 10-point loss. Last year against Port Adelaide, they were jumped. They were five goals down at half-time.
“It’s going to be crucial for Geelong to get into this game quickly and earlier. I think they have a more sustainable mindset in regards to taking the game to the opposition offensively than they’ve had in these previous years and I think we’re going to know about that attitude in the first five to 10 minutes.
“Collingwood will give themselves every chance and if they’re able to jump Geelong, they will put themselves in an enormous position because they’ve been running games out better than anyone, we know they’ve been winning those close games.
“I see this as a 50-50 game. This far out, I still reckon Geelong can best Collingwood, but these are the two teams that have won more than any other teams in the back-half of the year, so it is a fascinating final.”
The Qualifying Final will get underway at 4:35pm on Saturday at the MCG.