Parramatta Eels v Canberra Raiders
1st Semi-Final
CommBank Stadium, 7:50pm, Friday 16 September.
There are no more second chances as the Parramatta Eels and Canberra Raiders meet in a final for the first time in rugby league history. The Eels were below their best against the Penrith Panthers and despite sweating on Mitchell Moses’ fitness, the star halfback has been cleared of his concussion and will line up for his side.
The Raiders were underdogs against the Melbourne Storm and they were nothing short of exceptional with the usual suspects in Jack Wighton, Jamal Fogarty and Joseph Tapine stepping up. Two of the most famous clubs in the NRL will write their first chapter of finals football and this match could go either way.
Last five meetings:
Raiders def by Eels 20-28 Eels def by Raiders 10-12 Raiders def by Eels 10-35 Eels def Raiders 25-24 Eels def Raiders 22-16
Why the Eels will win
The Eels have been terrific this season in bouncing back after a loss. After each of their eight losses in the home and away season, the Eels have won their following game including the two wins against the Panthers.
The Eels have not lost two games in succession this year and have a good recent record against the Raiders as they have won four of their past five encounters.
Why the Raiders will win
Coach Ricky Stuart is a master in the finals and has played the first fortnight of the finals series to perfection. The Raiders are playing their best football at the right time of year and Stuart is buying into the ‘us against them’ mentality and his side has embraced the underdog tag. Canberra has won eight of their last nine games and momentum is hard to stop if you’re an opposition team.
Key Player
Hudson Young has been on an absolute tear for the Raiders in the second half of the season and along with Joseph Tapine, he is a big reason for Canberra’s late surge. Young has scored 14 tries this season which is more than he scored in his first three years in reserve grade.
The second-rower has scored nine tries in seven matches and also remains a threat in defence as he has averaged 28 tackles at 91 per cent efficiency. He has certainly repaid the faith Ricky Stuart has shown in him and his breakout year could see him earn a Kangaroos jersey at the World Cup later this year.
Key Stat
22.2 per cent.
That is Brad Arthur’s winning record in the finals whilst he has been under the helm at Parramatta. Those two wins have come against an eighth-placed Brisbane Broncos team who were on the brink of imploding and the Newcastle Knights in 2021 who had a points differential of -143. Until the Eels start to win big finals and progress to a preliminary final, Arthur’s finals record will continue to be a big point of discussion.
Prediction: Raiders by four points
Charles Goodsir
Cronulla Sharks v South Sydney Rabbitohs
2nd Semi Final Allianz Stadium, 8pm, Saturday 17 September.
The Sharks head to their home away from home at Allianz Stadium to face the Rabbitohs, who have played their last three straight games at Sydney’s newest stadium. These two sides faced off in Round 20 in a game that looked destined to end in a deadlock, needing a Nico Hynes field goal to separate the sides.
The Rabbitohs are still the topic of conversation after last week’s brutal semi-final against the Roosters and will be without key forward Tom Burgess.
Last five meetings: Sharks def Rabbitohs 21-20 Rabbitohs def Sharks 32-22 Rabbitohs def Sharks 22-18 Sharks def Rabbitohs 39-24 Rabbitohs def Sharks 22-14
Why the Sharks will win
Although the Sharks suffered a loss last week, it took 12 minutes of extra time and a world-class strike from Valentine Holmes to put them into an elimination final. The Sharks looked the better side for the majority of the game against the Cowboys and were undone at the final moments, denying them of a famous win. Cronulla, unlike their opponents, head into this game with more rest and a nearly entirely untouched squad from injury or suspension.
Why the Rabbitohs will win
The Rabbitohs may be battered and bruised, but on their day they have proven they can beat any side in the competition. South Sydney’s forward pack showed plenty of aggression and a much-needed determination to do anything to get the win last week. Along with a star-studded backline, the Rabbitohs on paper seem to have more individually talented players but will need all their stars to click to get past a strong Sharks side.
Key Player
Nicho Hynes may be the obvious pick here, but he is a game-changer for the Sharks and could single-handedly lead Cronulla to victory on Saturday.
Hynes was instrumental last week, with four line-break assists, three try assists and 28 tackles, the Sharks halfback had a hand in everything his side did on both sides of the park. With a good Hynes performance in this outing, the Rabbitohs will have their work cut out for them.
Key Stat
The Rabbitohs have made the last four preliminary finals.
Although South Sydney has only been successful once in the last four years, it is still one of the most respectable stats in the competition. The Rabbitohs did however go to four straight prelims with Adam Reynolds leading the side, so the question remains, can they get over the hump without their all-time leading points scorer?
Prediction: Sharks by 14 points.
Dominic Criniti