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Can the Swans avoid the worrying trend after a heavy Grand Final defeat?

2022-10-28T14:30+11:00

The fallout for a team that cops a heavy Grand Final loss is undeniable.

Since 2000, almost every side that has lost a season decider by 40 or more points has struggled with the scars of defeat in the next campaign.

While some sides - St Kilda in 2011, Sydney in 2015 and the Western Bulldogs in 2022 - played finals after a big beating, their season of redemption would ultimately end in failure.

The Sydney Swans are the latest to cop a hiding on Grand Final day after they were licked by Geelong to the tune of 81 points in late September.

So how will it play out for the Swans in 2023?

Of course it’s impossible to know right now but there certainly is a cloud hanging over them due to what has happened in the past.

The stats below show that it is difficult to back up after being on the receiving end of a Grand Final demolition.

2000: MELBOURNE lost to Essendon by 60. / 2001: Finished 11th.
2003: COLLINGWOOD lost to Brisbane by 50. / 2004: Finished 13th.
2004: BRISBANE lost to Port Adelaide by 40. / 2005: Finished 11th.
2007: PORT ADELAIDE lost to Geelong by 119. / 2008: Finished 13th.
2010: ST KILDA los to Collingwood by 56. / 2011: Finished 6th, lost Elimination Final.
2014: SYDNEY lost to Hawthorn by 63. / 2015: Finished 4th, out of finals in straight sets.
2015: WEST COAST lost to Hawthorn by 46. / 2016: Finished 6th, lost Elimination Final.
2017: ADELAIDE lost to Richmond by 48. / 2018: Finished 12th.
2019: GWS lost to Richmond by 89. / 2020: Finished 10th.
2021: WESTERN BULLDOGS lost to Melbourne by 74. / 2022: Finished 8th, lost Elimination Final.
2022: SYDNEY lost to Geelong by 81. / 2023: ?

With the way their list is set up, could the Swans be better placed to avoid the same fate as many before them?

Two-time North Melbourne premiership player David King was part of a Kangaroos outfit that lost the 1998 Grand Final to Adelaide by 35 points after kicking inaccurately.

That team was able to bounce back in 1999 to claim a second flag in four seasons by beating Carlton.

Having that first-hand knowledge, King believes the Swans are in a pretty good place despite their largely uncompetitive efforts on the biggest stage of all.

“It’s a hard one to predict, but most teams that get smashed in Grand Finals take a year to recover,” King said on SEN Breakfast.

“I don’t know why that’s the case, whether it’s just a mental thing or whether there are some deep-seeded issues in the way those teams have played.

“Is it a different brand that doesn’t work in the ultimate game? I don’t have the answer.

“But they’re a young group, they’re a young midfield, I think another 20 games into (Chad) Warner, even (Isaac) Heeney and (Callum) Mills aren’t as old as you think, (James) Rowbottom is making significant inroads, Nick Blakey had a good year.

“They’re right to go, I think.”

Kane Cornes agrees, suggesting the professionalism of the Swans and the way the club is run will hold the current playing group in good stead.

The former Port Adelaide midfielder was on the receiving end of a 119-point shellacking, also handed out by the Cats, back in 2007 which dismantled the club for quite some time so is well-versed to pass judgment.

“They’re well-run and well-led,” he added.

“They’ve got good pillars in place. (John) Longmire, (Tom) Harley, Charlie Gardiner, they’re well-led and they’ve got the experience.

“I’m not as concerned about Sydney as what some others might be.

“But it did take Port Adelaide about 10 years to get over that 2007 drubbing.”

With so many cautionary tales to learn from, will the Swans be able to overcome their Grand Final debacle and contend again in 2023?

We can’t predict that but it certainly will be an interesting watch.

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