In less than three weeks’ time, the AFL will shine the spotlight on the cream of the nation’s young football talent at the 2022 National Draft.
It’s the grand final for AFL recruiters. Get it right and their club improves. Get it wrong and the club loses ground to the competition.
Even Ross Lyon, who didn’t exactly embrace rebuilds with the “cuddly” nature he has promised when he returns to St Kilda, told us that no game plan survives poor recruiting.
On SEN WA Breakfast you would have heard Tim Gossage and Scott Cummings interviewing the best WA teenagers in recent days and weeks.
Just this week we have heard Reuben Ginbey – the Dunsborough left footer – a big-bodied mid who has been likened to Collingwood’s power-running midfielder Jack Crisp, and Elijah Hewett, a star in Swan Districts colts finals teams as an under ager last year, the captain of the state 18s this year and a player who has been likened to Dustin Martin and Christian Petracca.
They are both impressive teenagers, as are East Perth’s Jedd Busslinger, Claremont’s Ed Allan, son of Ben and tipped by many to be the “riser” in this draft – which is recruiter jargon for a bloke who starts draft calculations outside of the top 30 and gets picked in the first round.
Darcy Jones, Jed Hagan, we could go on with a list of kids who are leaving no stone unturned to make it. WA is tipped to have at least three players picked in the first round this year, with Ginbey likely to be inside the top 10.
We could have five inside of the top 30 which is a solid result for a state whose 18s team had mixed results.
We spoke to WAFC talent manager Adam Jones about these and other boys, about the WAFC’s expectations in this draft.
We will also ask an age old question about the draft – are kids asked to join the toughest and most equalized sporting competition Australia has too early?
It could be argued that this question has been asked and answered over and over again. If they are old enough to vote, leave school, have a beer, drive a car, they should also be able to enter an elite sporting competition.
But it could equally be argued that the reason the question continues to be asked is that we keep coming up with the wrong answer – that the draft age is too young and when it comes to drafting 17 and 18-year-olds the case against outstrips the case for.
Jason Horne-Francis 12 months ago was all the rage in the AFL. It is debatable whether he should have been taken at pick one in the draft. North Melbourne knew that if they read Nick Daicos’ name out that Collingwood would match the bid anyway and Horne-Francis, who they knew they were going to end up with anyway, would have been denied the cash bonus that the number one pick gets.
Fat lot of good that did them. One year into a two-year contract, Horne-Francis wanted to go home. Those scathing of him should take a deep breath. He had not long turned 19 when he played the last of his 17 games for North. He was homesick, had struggled to adjust to the professional demands of footy at a club that had won just two games for the season.
The drafting of Jason Horne-Francis and the shift interstate that came with it was not good, either for him or North, a club that had finished on the bottom to get the pick to take him and desperately needed an outcome from it.
And this is the problem with the draft system as it exists. The kids are too young, there is too much guesswork involved: What sort of player will they develop into?
How will they adapt to a professional and elite sporting environment?
And the big one and the elephant sitting in the corner of the room when it comes to the draft age: Should football really be taking teenagers out of their home straight out of school and plonking many of them on the other side of the country and expecting them to adapt?
You will hear plenty of arguments as to why kids should not be held back: Tim Watson played senior footy when he was 15. Nick Daicos was a star in year one. Ditto Chris Judd who did shift to the other side of the country.
But it could also be argued that for every 18-year-old that is ready there are three that aren’t. So which does the most harm: Holding the one that can back for a year or two? Or throwing the three that can’t off the deep end and hoping they swim?
Even if we eliminate the player welfare aspect of this there is the other key factor mentioned earlier – on many of these youngsters the clubs are guessing.
It’s an educated guess based on many trips to watch them play, study their running patterns, their skill levels, their ability to make good decisions, their athletic profiles, their tanks, their scope for growth.
They may do countless background interviews with families, community and junior clubs, schools and state talent development pathways to reduce the guess. But it’s still a guess.
Here is a pertinent point: You know one AFL club that doesn’t guess with its salary cap? Geelong the premier and perennial finalist and contender.
The Cats may still guess with recruiting but they don’t guess with player payments. They pay on performance not potential and they take the policy seriously. They view it as a competitive advantage over other clubs in the competition. Performance, not potential.
And just to further develop that theme – one of the other people I spoke to this week is another person who wants to play in the AFL – Claremont’s Bailey Rogers.
OVERLOOKED WAFL STAR BETTER THAN SIX PLAYERS ON EVERY AFL LIST
When recruiters assess players they look for red flags which tell them they won’t make it: Not athletic enough, not skilled enough, not strong enough, not versatile enough, question marks on character.
I, and many others hope that there is still a chance for a player like Rogers to get a chance at AFL level – just as Tim Kelly did, just as Marlion Pickett did.
Rogers is 25 now. At 24 he played as an inside midfielder for Claremont and won a Sandover Medal. This year, coming off an interrupted pre-season, he played as a mid-forward and finished a narrow second to gun Jye Bolton in Claremont’s best and fairest as the Tigers finished second to West Perth.
He is highly skilled, can play back, midfield or forward.
He is rated as an outstanding character, has a high skill level and while not super quick, runs a really strong 2km time trial which points to a big tank and strong preparation disciplines.
He simply does not have a red flag to rule him out. He has come close to being drafted several times and trained at Fremantle this past summer.
Every time he has come close, all 18 clubs have chosen to guess on younger players with certain traits that made them think they could be a better player than Rogers.
And the end result of that has put me in a position to take this guess. I would guess that Rogers is a better player than at least six players on pretty much every AFL list and yet has never even had a look in at the top level.
It’s food for thought two and a half weeks out from this draft.