Speaking on SEN’s Sportsday, Gerard Healy, Brad Johnson and Cal Twomey discussed the value of first round draft picks, particularly key position types, and how their careers develop if they don’t show enough signs early.
They looked at two prospects in particular who were very highly rated in their draft years in Jarrod Brander and Josh Schache.
Brander was initially a GWS Academy prospect, but was eventually ruled ineligible for exclusive access, with teams complaining and the league scaling back Academy allowances.
He would eventually be selected at pick 13 by West Coast in the 2017 National Draft, playing 22 games for the club before being delisted in 2021. He would then be picked up by the Giants and delisted 12 months later.
Schache meanwhile was the second pick of the 2015 National Draft to Brisbane. A draft littered with quality talls like Jacob Weitering, Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Eric Hipwood, Harry Himmelberg, Ben McKay, Sam Collins and Nathan Broad.
He would request a trade to the Western Bulldogs after just 27 games with the Lions and now finds himself heading to Melbourne in 2023.
Healy: “Let’s look back and at the end of every year I see names of high draft picks that have been cut and each time I think, we’re going to go into this next couple of weeks and a top 10 pick doesn’t guarantee you too much. It guarantees you probably four years minimum, maybe six. But it’s no guarantee you can build a career out of it.”
Twomey: “The guarantee is opportunity at the start and probably a pretty good contract to start, but beyond that I think we’re seeing more movement of the top-end. You look at the 2016 draft and I think only three of the top 10, six years on, are still at their clubs.”
Healy: “The young guy who sparked this thought process in my mind … (Jarrod Brander) is now gone from the competition and yet when he was picked he was regarded as player that you build a premiership around.”
Twomey: “He was (West Coast’s) first pick. He went before Oscar Allen and everyone went ‘how did Allen fall so far’. He was part of that Giants Academy as well and part of that furore about them having access to this Riverina zone and in the end they didn’t get priority access to him. He ended up at GWS down the line ironically.”
“But you’re right Gerard, the hit-rate of the talls at the top-end of the draft is lower than midfielders, and that’s just the reality too because midfielders tend to dominate their draft years and the talls sometimes don’t.
“Josh Schache was one of the exceptions who did dominate his draft year. He kicked 60 goals in his draft year for Vic Country and the Murray Bushrangers.”
Johnson: “He needed to be drafted now because the AFL game didn’t suit Josh Schache. It did in the NAB League, but what the full forward had to do when he entered the competition is different to what the full forward has to do today which is a shame and you hope he can capture that, but his momentum is gone unfortunately and it’s going to take a bit to get it back.”
Twomey: “He’s off to his third club now. We talked about the opportunities early picks get and that lasting impact, well he’s a third timer now.”
Healy: “I think that’s the tall factor as well. If you’ve got some height you seem to get more opportunities than if you’re not.”
Sam Weideman was also a key forward selected in the top 10 of the 2015 National Draft and will have a chance to reignite his career after moving from Melbourne to Essendon.
Listen to the full chat below