Nathan Buckley has delivered his expectations for the 18 clubs ahead of the 2023 AFL season.
The Collingwood great admits he finds it difficult to come up with a definitive ladder, but has grouped teams together based on where he believes they will finish the home and away season.
Buckley has also opted to predict a win range for each team regarding what he believes will be each club’s lowest and highest amount of victories in 2023.
“I’ve got a clear top four,” he said on SEN Breakfast.
“Geelong, Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney is a clear top four.”
The Top Four
Geelong (16-19 wins)
“I have Geelong winning as little as 16 games and as many as 19.
“I don’t think they can win less than 16, obviously they could, but I think that’s their spread.”
Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney (15-18 wins)
“Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney I have ranged from 15 to 18 wins.
“This is a clear top four in my eyes. I don’t think anyone goes near those four teams.”
The Rest of the Eight
Richmond (12-16 wins)
“I don’t have the top eight changing from last year.
“I have Richmond as the next most likely team. I think they’ll be overs from their 13.5 wins.
“I’ve got them 12 (lowest) to 16 (highest).”
Western Bulldogs (11-16 wins)
“I’ve got the Bulldogs as little as 11 and as many as 16.
“That could be up on the 12 from last year.”
Collingwood and Fremantle
“I have Collingwood and Fremantle filling the seventh and eighth spots.
“For me, both of those will struggle to get the wins that they got last year.
“Collingwood won 16 (last year) with nine of those close wins. The balance of probability says they won’t be 9-0 on that this year.
“With Fremantle I just wonder which one is turning up. The defensive juggernaut of the first half or the second half that were actually a bit leaky and not as effective.”
The Challengers for the Eight
“These are the sides that I think will challenge the bottom half of the eight.”
Carlton (10-14 wins)
“Carlton are going to be around the same.
“They’re between 10 to 14 wins.”
Port Adelaide (10-16 wins)
“I have them as little as 10 wins and as many as 16.
“I still think they’ll do better than their 10 wins of last year. I just don’t know how much better.”
GWS Giants (8-14 wins)
“The big overs for me are GWS. They only won six games last year, this year I think they’ll go as few as eight and as many as 14.
“I’d think that they’ll be a real surprise to most. The talent level that they have and with a slightly fresh and faster game plan, I think GWS will be one to watch.”
The Rest
Adelaide, Gold Coast, West Coast
The Bottom Four
St Kilda, Hawthorn, Essendon and North Melbourne
“I’ve got a bottom four and it involves three of the new coaches (Ross Lyon, Brad Scott and Alastair Clarkson).
“St Kilda, Hawthorn, Essendon and North Melbourne will be the bottom four.
“I’ve got the Saints between seven and 11 wins.
“I don’t think the club are under any illusions as to the challenge in front of them.”